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Mesa AZ Real Estate On The Rise? What About Sales?

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Allison James Estates & Homes

Reports about the Mesa AZ Real Estate Market have started to turn positive. Information from Arizona Regional Multiple listing Service (ARMLS®) show that new inventory in January increased by 34% or approximately 9,800 listings. Though this sounds like a significant increase, it is actually 27% below the typical December to January increase of new listings added according to statistics since 2001. The chart below shows all MLS inventory and is a reflection of the Mesa AZ real estate market.

MLS Search Data - Mesa AZ Real Estate Mearket

A very interesting statistic reported by ARMLS® is that overall inventory for the last half of 2011 mirrors that of inventories for quarter 2 of 2003 through quarter 1 of 2004. The significance of this is that this is the same conditions existed just before the 2005 Mesa AZ real estate market run up.

Even though we see an overall increase in inventories, days on market are declining and completion for available properties is up. As of January the overall increase in inventory was less than 1.5%. For the Mesa AZ real estate market, the increase of inventory appears to have slightly helped fill the growing buyer demand.  

MLS Search Data - Mesa AZ Real Estate Market

The big question for the Mesa AZ real estate market is how this increasing inventory has affected the overall sales numbers. We know that according to ARMLS® statistics sales fell over 17% from December to January. This decline only is overshadowed by the summer sales drop in July where sales fell by nearly 25%. There are some factors we should consider that goes beyond just the numbers.

 

Let’s start with the July Mesa AZ real estate sales drop. 

1. This drop came on the back of the strongest sales month of the year, June sales MLS wide where over 10,000 units. 

2. Another factor affecting areas like the Mesa AZ real estate market was the May foreclosure slow down as banks discontinued their aggressive foreclosure practices, as the Feds initiated legal action against servicers.  

3. Now look at January. Even though MLS inventory increased, it was 27% lower than what we would have expected for the period. With inventories closing out the year well below normal market levels, sales were affected as buyers regularly had to make multiple offers to get under contract because of increased completion with other buyers.    

 

These factors significantly explain the sales drop of 1.3% below January 2011 numbers. The chart below shows the comparable sales data year on year between 2011 & 2012.

MLS Search Sales - Mesa AZ Real Estate Market

The inventories are up however in smaller quantities that what we have seen on average over the last 10 years. This is creating more completion since there are a large number of buyers in the Mesa AZ real estate market now. We have seen steady price increased for the last four months. Sales will rise if the available inventory continues to rise at a continued absorbable rate. 

Posted by

Scott Whitwam - Broker/Realtor   
Allison James Estates and Homes
Mesa AZ
602-753-2900
www.HomesEastValley.com 
Info@HomesEastValley.com

 

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Comments (1)

Sylvie Stuart
Realty One Group Mountain Desert 928-600-2765 - Flagstaff, AZ
Home Buying, Home Selling and Investment - Flagsta

Great post and explanation of the market in Mesa! We are well below inventory right now in Flagstaff, to almost HALF of where we usually have been!

Feb 25, 2012 01:17 AM