First and foremost – the inventory is shrinking. Lately it was shrinking slower, but it is normal due to our seasonal activity, which slows down in winter. Late spring is when it really starts warming up, even though it seems we have early start this year, as we are getting unseasonably busy.
So what do we have? Well, we have 151 condo-hotel units for sale in greater Daytona Beach Area.
3 years ago at high point we had 366 units for sale. Going to 151 is a huge drop, and it is reminding me of 2004, when at this time of the year we had about 160 units dropping from about 260 units, and many still thought that the prices for condo-hotel units will not go up for another 25 years.
And they went up 2.5 – 3 times just in 8 months. Of course, now everybody says that it is different this time, and there will be no real estate explosion.
We will see. I do not buy all that crap about the elections, unemployment, war or no war... When in 2004 the market started going crazy, what was the trigger? Did unemployment suddenly and dramatically changed? No...
Did we get a huge and quick spike in the overall economy? I do not recall it.
But real estate market went nuts.
For me it is still the law of demand and supply. Decreased inventory leads to increase in prices. And I think inventory at some level is the trigger. The lower the inventory, the more is the competition for remaining units.
We will not have to wait long to see if my prediction is any better than of some gurus' (LOL). And if I am wrong, I will be in a company of many gurus, who were very consistent in just one thing - being wrong...