Marin County Market Continues To Firm Up

We’re almost at the end of 2006. As noted in previous posts, the market is showing some signs of firming up, partly because we are now measuring against numbers from a year ago that were declining.

Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?

We consider it a Buyer’s Market when percent of homes in contract is below 25%, balanced when it is between 25% and 35%, and a Seller’s Market when it is above 35%.

Surprisingly, in Marin County, we’re in what we now consider a balanced market, as 26% of total homes are in contract.

And it’s not just because sellers are pulling their homes off the market, which is a big contributor to declining inventory. The actual number of homes in contract is 197, which is only slightly off from a year ago, at 207.

The strongest segment in the market, not surprisingly, is in the under $1 MM segment. Over 29% of homes in this bracket are in contract. The number of transactions is almost identical to a year ago - 132 now, vs. 130 last year.

Have we reached bottom yet? That’s the big question every buyer I know wants answered. Remember though that average sale price in Marin County rarely declines, so bottom is relative. It’s not just about price, it’s also about what kind of selection is available.

What If I’m A Buyer?

Interest rates are great. Selection is good. If you find something that fits your criteria, this is an excellent time to take advantage of the market. Bear in mind that Corte Madera and Larkspur are both still very strong markets for housing right now, but in Novato, there is much more inventory available.

What If I’m Selling?

Only serious sellers need apply. This is not the time to “test the waters” and get that dream price for your house. There’s a ton of competition in most every neighborhood and price range, buyers are wary, and unless you’re prepared to price it intelligently, then it could be a long wait on the market.

Here’s the numbers, all as of 12/28/06, according to MLS:

Total Marin County Homes Available, 2006: 757

Total Marin County Homes Available, 2005: 686

Percent Change:                                       +9%

Total Homes in Contract, 2006:                 197

Total Homes in Contract, 2005:                 207

Percent Change:                                      -5%

Under $1MM

Total Homes Available,  ‘06:                      452

Total Homes Available,  ‘05:                      361

Percent Change:                                      +25%

Total In Contract, ‘06                               132

Total in Contract, ‘05                                130

Percent Change:                                        0%