As always, this data is my interpretation of what was happening in the market on a given date and should be used with caution. That noted, here are recent findings for a property
The first grouping of data is a three year run of all sales in the Ann Arbor school district through the MLS, regardless of age, size, etc. this data indicates a rise from the first year of the data run to the second, then stability in the third year. The median sizes remained consistent, and number of sales per year was also relatively consistent with a small increase noted over the past couple of years. Overall, on average, there were 910 sales per year, which equates to 75.83 per month. As there are currently 293 offerings on the market not under contract (409 less the 116 under contract), based on historic data, there is under a 4-months’ supply of inventory available. With the number of contracted properties to noted listings, the market shows over 28% of the inventory is under contract, which is evidence of an active market in general. The broader market data therefore indicates stable prices with low supply and good demand at present.
The second set of market data includes only properties in the area 87 (the north side in general) and is run on a five year basis. In this data the first three years of the study show good stability, followed by a sharp decline on the fourth year, then with an increase on the most recent year. The most recent year also shows an increase in median size over the two years previously, which is partly responsible for the recent increase.Overall the market shows a decline then stability, and there are a number of pending sales in this market, over that of the market in general at 31.25%. With an average 29.6 sales per year (2.47 per month), the remaining 11 offerings on the market, not under contract, would be expected to be absorbed into the market in less than 5-months, slightly greater inventory than the Ann Arbor market as a whole.
In the last data run, the appraisal restricted data to include only the smaller (500-1,000 sqft) houses in areas 82, 87 and 88 of the Ann Arbor MLS, rental offerings excluded. This is the data which would most closely mirror the typical buyer for the subject property and is therefore most pertinent to the overall trends. In this study, the market data does show a decline in year three of the study, followed by stability the next year and an increase in prices the most recent period prior to the effective date.Historically in this market, there are 38 sales per year, or 3.17 per month. Currently there are 13 properties on the market not under contract, showing a 4.10 month supply of inventory. In addition, the current contract to listing ratio is greater than the market in general and the school district as a whole at 35% of the inventory under contract.
Taking all three sets of market data together, the market in a year over year data run shows as having reached stability after a decline, and with pressure for houses being greater in the smaller, less costly houses than the market as a whole. With current inventory levels, marketing times are expected to fall just short of 4-months, so in the 3-6 months range. Prices are shown as stable.
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