As always, this data is one appraiser's interpretation of the market at a given point in time and should be used with caution as just one opinion. Hopefully the Realtors active in the market agree with my assessment, as well as the other professional appraisers in my market :)
Enjoy:
I ran market data in several different submarkets including all of Saline in general; all of Saline 4,000 sqft and over, and finally Travis and Stonebridge in the Saline school district alone. The findings are described below.
The entire Saline school district was studied as far as pricing over time dating back to 5-years prior to the effective date of the study. Only rental offerings were excluded from the dataset. What is noticeable at first glance is the sharp decline in the market from 2007 through early 2010, with recovery starting in 2010 and increasing through the year prior to the effective date. The overall gross living area (GLA) remained relatively stable and slightly declined over the most recent two years, even with prices increasing. This potentially means that prices actually showed more of a recovery than based on a strict median sales price. In this market segment there have been on average, 281.40 sales per year, or 23.45 per month. As there are currently 167 houses on the market not under contract (206 less the 39 showing as continue to show), expectation would be that based on historic absorption, the inventory is just over 7-months’ supply. With 39 out of 206 properties under contract, contract to listing ratio is 18.93% which is reasonably but not markedly robust.
The Saline market in general therefore shows as having stabilized with a slight recovery, but with modest absorption and inventory levels over 6-months.
The next data set is too small to be an adequate sample size for statistics but is addressed nonetheless, as this is the market that most closely competes with the subject of the analysis in that only sales of properties 4,000 sqft and larger were analyzed and only sales within the Saline school district. In this dataset the market appears rather erratic with declines followed by increases followed by declines. This has largely to do with the small number of sales in the data set which equates to only 12.40 sales per year, or 1.03 per month on average. With thirteen current offerings not under contract, there is over a year’s supply of offerings of these larger houses and absorption is weak at 13.33% of the current listings under contract. This particular market therefore is not in line with the larger Saline market and the appraisal considers the prices as stable at present, but with supply exceeding demand and marketing times expected to be well over 6-months.
The final dataset includes only properties in Travis Pointe and Stonebridge Communities. These communities are adjacent to each other, and only the Saline section of Stonebridge is included. What is noted in this study is that in general, properties are considerably smaller than the subject (the subject is larger than typical for Travis, but Travis typically has more expensive and larger properties than Stonebridge), and that the market has also behaved rather erratically in this dataset as well. That noted, there are also too few sales yearly for a good statistical analysis, but more than the larger houses in the previous set. On average there are 16.6 sales per year, or 1.38 per month. With 7 offerings currently available that are not under contract the supply and demand is more balanced with a supply just over 5-months based on historic data. The most recent year prior to the effective date does show an increase in prices but that follows the prior year with a significant decline. All told this market is considered to be stable at present, but with more balance than is seen in the market in general.
In looking at the year over year data presented below, it is my opinion that the market is currently stable, but saturated for properties such as the subject, and therefore there is an oversupply and extended marketing times in spite of the improvement in prices.
In addition to the year over year statistics presented above, I also looked at all sales in Travis Pointe Condominiums (the detached housing) over time on both a strict sale price, and price per square foot and arrayed the sales by date starting as far back as the MLS tracks. In the graphing it is obvious that the market declined over time, starting a recovery towards the beginning of 2010, much like was noted above for the Saline market as a whole. While prices have not increased markedly, they do appear to have stabilized at present. That noted, this data is a snapshot in time, and markets can change rapidly depending on many events. At present however, the market does appear stable in pricing.
Again, the interpretation of one intrepid appraiser from the Ann Arbor market
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