national new home construction comparisons

By
Industry Observer with Howard Sumner Consulting

To start I thought it might be useful to give some context to new construction as compared to other industries or measures we might look at and where the other bench marks or measurements would be if they had “recovered” as much as new construction. I use the percentage drop of new construction from the 50 year average (approximately 48%) instead of the drop from the peak (approximately 68%) to make the comparisons less dramatic and even doing that I believe the numbers are stunning

 

Dow average peak  14,164    current 13,046   

drop from peak using new construction, the dow would be                          7,356

 

Oil barrel  peak               145.28                 current               107.06                

drop from peak using new construction, the oil would be                              75.54

 

Gold per oz peak            1895                    current               1660.24

drop from peak using new construction, the gold would be                           985.4

 

Car sales peak                 20,606,000         current               15,035,000        

drop from peak using new construction, the car sales would be                10,715,120

 

employment peak          146,867,000       current               140,684,000      

drop from peak using new construction, employment would be               76,637,000

 

unemployment peak     16,147,000         current               13,430,000        

increase from peak using new construction, unemployment would be      90,067,000

 

population of US            313,679,000 

drop from peak using new construction population  would be                      163,113,000

 

so the thought to ponder as you review the numbers above and the improvement of the new construction below is new construction recovering or is it stabilizing or is still a  weak industry?

actual total for year

permit issued start of construction
multi single multi single single sales 
2012: Year to Date 98.6 64.5 94.6 64.5 47
2011: Year to Date 73.4 53.0 75.7 53.3 43
y o y + or  - 34.33% 21.70% 24.97% 21.01% 9.30%

seasonally adjusted        
  permits issued   permits issued total
  one unit structure   includes multi family
permits issued 472     717  
             
peak year 1682     2219  
permits % drop from peak 72%     68%
50 year average 911     1383  
permits % drop from 50 year 48%     48%
             
movement up from Bottom 353 34%   522 37%
             
  housing started     starts total  
  one unit structure   includes multi family
starts    457     698  
             
peak year 1611     2357  
starts % drop from peak 72%     70%
50 year average 1056     1481  
starts % drop from 50 year 57%     53%
             
movement up from Bottom 360 27%   520 34%
             
             
  housing sales        
  one unit structure        
new single family sales 313        
             
peak year July 2005 1283        
sales % drop from peak 76%      
48 year average from 1963 628        
sales % drop from 48 year average 50%      
Bottom August 2010        
movement up from Bottom 278 13%      

 

Comments (1)

Andrew Mooers | 207.532.6573
MOOERS REALTY - Houlton, ME
Northern Maine Real Estate-Aroostook County Broker

Excellent detailed presentation!

Mar 23, 2012 11:32 PM