To start I thought it might be useful to give some context to new construction as compared to other industries or measures we might look at and where the other bench marks or measurements would be if they had “recovered” as much as new construction. I use the percentage drop of new construction from the 50 year average (approximately 48%) instead of the drop from the peak (approximately 68%) to make the comparisons less dramatic and even doing that I believe the numbers are stunning
Dow average peak 14,164 current 13,046
drop from peak using new construction, the dow would be 7,356
Oil barrel peak 145.28 current 107.06
drop from peak using new construction, the oil would be 75.54
Gold per oz peak 1895 current 1660.24
drop from peak using new construction, the gold would be 985.4
Car sales peak 20,606,000 current 15,035,000
drop from peak using new construction, the car sales would be 10,715,120
employment peak 146,867,000 current 140,684,000
drop from peak using new construction, employment would be 76,637,000
unemployment peak 16,147,000 current 13,430,000
increase from peak using new construction, unemployment would be 90,067,000
population of US 313,679,000
drop from peak using new construction population would be 163,113,000
so the thought to ponder as you review the numbers above and the improvement of the new construction below is new construction recovering or is it stabilizing or is still a weak industry?
| actual total for year |
| permit issued | start of construction | |||||
| multi | single | multi | single | single sales | ||
| 2012: | Year to Date | 98.6 | 64.5 | 94.6 | 64.5 | 47 |
| 2011: | Year to Date | 73.4 | 53.0 | 75.7 | 53.3 | 43 |
| y o y + or - | 34.33% | 21.70% | 24.97% | 21.01% | 9.30% |
| seasonally adjusted | ||||||
| permits issued | permits issued total | |||||
| one unit structure | includes multi family | |||||
| permits issued | 472 | 717 | ||||
| peak year | 1682 | 2219 | ||||
| permits % drop from peak | 72% | 68% | ||||
| 50 year average | 911 | 1383 | ||||
| permits % drop from 50 year | 48% | 48% | ||||
| movement up from Bottom | 353 | 34% | 522 | 37% | ||
| housing started | starts total | |||||
| one unit structure | includes multi family | |||||
| starts | 457 | 698 | ||||
| peak year | 1611 | 2357 | ||||
| starts % drop from peak | 72% | 70% | ||||
| 50 year average | 1056 | 1481 | ||||
| starts % drop from 50 year | 57% | 53% | ||||
| movement up from Bottom | 360 | 27% | 520 | 34% | ||
| housing sales | ||||||
| one unit structure | ||||||
| new single family sales | 313 | |||||
| peak year July 2005 | 1283 | |||||
| sales % drop from peak | 76% | |||||
| 48 year average from 1963 | 628 | |||||
| sales % drop from 48 year average | 50% | |||||
| Bottom August 2010 | ||||||
| movement up from Bottom | 278 | 13% |
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