Tempe and metro Phoenix 6 year sales data - the big picture

By
Real Estate Agent

I read a post by Bryant Tutas discussing perception of market data, looking at sales data for his area since 2002.  As he was inspired by another blogger, I was inspired to review data for Tempe and the metro Phoenix area.  Here’s similar data I got from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) as of 12/17 for single family detached homes, extended to include average square feet and Days on Market (DOM):
 

Tempe

Year

Sales

 % Change

Avg Price

 % Change

 Avg SqFt

 % Change

 Avg DOM

 % Change

2002

1,441

 -

$187,300

 -

1,868

 -

49

 -

2003

1,538

+6%

$201,946

+7%

1,917

+3%

53

+8%

2004

1,638

+6%

$224,740

+10%

1,915

+0%

42

-21%

2005

1,654

+1%

$300,696

+25%

1,859

-3%

25

-40%

2006

1,259

 -24%

$337,609

+11%

1,858

+0%

59

+58%

2007

957

 -24%

$344,606

+2%

1,922

+3%

84

+30%

 

 



 



 

 

 

 

Metro Phoenix Area

Year

Sales

% Change

Avg Price

% Change

Avg SqFt

% Change

Avg DOM

% Change

2002

  55,713

 -

  $197,314

 -

1,897

 -

62

 -

2003

65,351

+15%

$212,253

+7%

1,938

+2%

64

+3%

2004

81,015

+19%

$240,085

+12%

1,955

+1%

49

-23%

2005

85,299

+5%

$325,176

+26%

1,948

+0%

30

-39%

2006

60,429

 -29%

$361,927

+10%

1,965

+1%

73

+59%

2007

42,373

 -30%

$365,102

+1%

2,073

+5%

112

+35%

Amazing as it may seem in today's market, the average price in Tempe and the Phoenix area in general has actually increased for every year since 2002, including 2007 (as of 12/17). However, then you notice that total sales have dropped by 50% since 2005 (similar declines noted by the other bloggers for their markets).

You can probably come up with a few scenarios to explain the increasing average price in the face of falling sales. Fewer lower priced homes selling, buyers selectively targeting higher priced homes (possibly explaining the higher average sq ft), etc. The rate of increasing prices has dramatically fallen off in 2007, so we may be turning the corner to lower average pricing next year.  Although if you believe NAR, prices will be on the rebound (their perpetual theme).  Hard to see it with this data.

Should you think that the data may change significantly in the remaining couple of weeks of 2007, you should note that there are only 3,887 pending sales for metro Phoenix, 81 for Tempe.  Hardly enough to make a difference, even if they all closed in December (unlikely).

 

Copyright © 2007 Rod Rebello

close

This entry hasn't been re-blogged:

Re-Blogged By Re-Blogged At
Location:
Arizona Maricopa County
Tags:
real estate
market conditions
phoenix
tempe

Post a Comment
Spam prevention
Spam prevention
Show All Comments
Rainmaker
712,548
Chuck Willman UtahHomes.me
Utah Homes - Alpine, UT
Utah Homes
Excellent data Rod- It's amazing how hard data and news reports can differ so much.
Jan 05, 2008 09:24 AM #1
Rainer
31,205
Temporarily off-line
Tempe, AZ
Thanks, Chuck.  Although it's a little painful to dig through the data, it does open your eyes to how much the media hypes the negatives over the positives.
Jan 05, 2008 10:01 AM #2
Post a Comment
Spam prevention
Show All Comments

What's the reason you're reporting this blog entry?

Are you sure you want to report this blog entry as spam?

Rainer
31,205

Temporarily off-line

Ask me a question
*
*
*
*
Spam prevention