I read a post by Bryant Tutas discussing perception of market data, looking at sales data for his area since 2002. As he was inspired by another blogger, I was inspired to review data for Tempe and the metro Phoenix area. Here’s similar data I got from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) as of 12/17 for single family detached homes, extended to include average square feet and Days on Market (DOM):
| Tempe | ||||||||
| Year | Sales | % Change | Avg Price | % Change | Avg SqFt | % Change | Avg DOM | % Change |
| 2002 | 1,441 | - | $187,300 | - | 1,868 | - | 49 | - |
| 2003 | 1,538 | +6% | $201,946 | +7% | 1,917 | +3% | 53 | +8% |
| 2004 | 1,638 | +6% | $224,740 | +10% | 1,915 | +0% | 42 | -21% |
| 2005 | 1,654 | +1% | $300,696 | +25% | 1,859 | -3% | 25 | -40% |
| 2006 | 1,259 | -24% | $337,609 | +11% | 1,858 | +0% | 59 | +58% |
| 2007 | 957 | -24% | $344,606 | +2% | 1,922 | +3% | 84 | +30% |
|
| |
| |
|
|
|
| |
| Metro Phoenix Area | ||||||||
| Year | Sales | % Change | Avg Price | % Change | Avg SqFt | % Change | Avg DOM | % Change |
| 2002 | 55,713 | - | $197,314 | - | 1,897 | - | 62 | - |
| 2003 | 65,351 | +15% | $212,253 | +7% | 1,938 | +2% | 64 | +3% |
| 2004 | 81,015 | +19% | $240,085 | +12% | 1,955 | +1% | 49 | -23% |
| 2005 | 85,299 | +5% | $325,176 | +26% | 1,948 | +0% | 30 | -39% |
| 2006 | 60,429 | -29% | $361,927 | +10% | 1,965 | +1% | 73 | +59% |
| 2007 | 42,373 | -30% | $365,102 | +1% | 2,073 | +5% | 112 | +35% |
Amazing as it may seem in today's market, the average price in Tempe and the Phoenix area in general has actually increased for every year since 2002, including 2007 (as of 12/17). However, then you notice that total sales have dropped by 50% since 2005 (similar declines noted by the other bloggers for their markets).
You can probably come up with a few scenarios to explain the increasing average price in the face of falling sales. Fewer lower priced homes selling, buyers selectively targeting higher priced homes (possibly explaining the higher average sq ft), etc. The rate of increasing prices has dramatically fallen off in 2007, so we may be turning the corner to lower average pricing next year. Although if you believe NAR, prices will be on the rebound (their perpetual theme). Hard to see it with this data.
Should you think that the data may change significantly in the remaining couple of weeks of 2007, you should note that there are only 3,887 pending sales for metro Phoenix, 81 for Tempe. Hardly enough to make a difference, even if they all closed in December (unlikely).
Copyright © 2007 Rod Rebello
Comments(2)