Canary in the coal mine: will 2007 be the first year of declining NAR membership in a decade?

Commissions have actually gone up, so I think we will continue to see a steady stream of new agents signing up to do one or two deals for family and friends.  The biggest threat to experienced agents is all the new agents coming from high tech backgrounds who are raising the stakes by using new technology.

while I don't wish financial hardship on anyone, as I know it is painful, I do not feel sorry for agents who got into this business to make a quick buck, made no effort to get better, no effort to become true professionals, and now have to get out. I think it is better not only for those of us that stay, but better for the consumer who will be left with more true professionals and less part timers

Spencer, I expected the numbers to be lower. I also think Renee had a good point. NAR's got bills to pay, less members may be paying more dues.

It's funny how everyone wants money from us.....non negotiable.....but when we are supposed to get money....it's very negotiable!

Yes, I do agree that NAR will see a decline in numbers just as we expect to see local numbers decline.  I think this slowdown will force a lot of part-time Realtors to rethink their profession.

Interesting information. All the best at this holiday season.

Here we go again:  I really do not care what Zillow says... home values in Fort Worth are up 4.7% over 2006.  It is just this type of careless hype that has buyers and sellers in so many decent US markets scared to make a move.  Markets are local, Values are local.  Increases and decreases in home values are LOCAL.  Zillow should not deal in such negative generalities.

You monster!!!! Just kidding. Actually, I hate to see agents leave too, however the ones leaving are typically the ones who just jumped on the bandwagon a couple of years ago because of the boom.

Spencer,  Whatever the reported numbers are I suspect that when you strip out those who are now part timers, etc. the real drop will be substantial.

This business is cyclical just as realtors are cyclical. It's keeping your clients satisfied while bouncing in and out of real estate. Or the person who changes companies every 6 months. People need stability. And we need to provide it as professionals.

YOU MONSTER!     OK, I said it.....

Being observant and reporting your understanding of a subject does not make you a monster, but here is a thought that makes some think those of us that express our thoughts are MONSTERS........

......good for the rest of us that have worked hard to establish a business plan. Let the fallout begin for those that just stick their hands out hoping for a commission to drop into them without fully understanding the market or working towards higher levels of education.

Now would be a good time to elevate the entry levels into this business by setting higher standards than what most barbers have to go through to get their licenses and keep them. We need to make it harder to get into this business and harder to get out of this business because of the investment required.

Ask your state Realtor organizations and real estate commissions to require those higher education standards, and we'll all be better off.

Karen-

It's Drew from Zillow.

"Markets are local, Values are local.  Increases and decreases in home values are LOCAL. Zillow should not deal in such negative generalities."

The 6% figure Spencer quoted was for Zestimates nationwide (roughly 50 million of them). I think it's pretty hard to dispute that many, many markets are seeing a decrease. But, that said, we definitely agree with you that real estate is local, local, local. There's no doubt each market is different, which is why Zillow publishes detailed breakdowns for specific areas around the country. Our quarterly reports currently cover 83 major metro areas. Regarding Fort Worth specifically, I'm not sure what the market is doing there. Texas is a non-disclosure state, which makes calculating zestimates within TX a challenge -- which is why Fort Worth is not on the list of 83 metro areas that we publish quarterly. 

Hope this helps. 

Drew:  You are still missing my point.  I do not dispute that many markets are down, but quoting a blanket figure of a six percent decrease in "US home values" is false and misleading.  I do not care if it is an average.  Perhaps you could have at least divided your statistical reporting and said that "for the number 23, or 14 or whatever" of markets that were down, they were down an average of ?? %, and for the however many number of markets that increased, the average increase was "blank" percent ?

I do know about statistics, but here... the reporting made it look like the home values of the whole doggone country had fallen.  That was not the case.  Could you please simply acknowledge the validity of my point ? 

Some of the current slowdown is actually due to drops in values in certain markets, but much of the current slowdown is due to unbased emotional fears of many who see the misleading statistics and mistakenly think the drop is in every single market.  You are doing more harm than good with your reports.  Either report your results fully and correctly, or don't report them at all.  Am I upset ?  You Betcha !   Thank you !

I would think the number of agents is a trailing indicator.  Im hoping the number in the Austin market goes down.

Spencer ~ I agree with Don above. Our business is WAY too easy to get into, and far too many get into the biz for all the wrong reasons. I think loosing a few along the way would be an improvement. I just wish it could be the crappy ones!!

Karen-

I certainly see where you are coming from -- I just happen to not agree that the reporting in this post is misleading. Think about the target audience -- ActiveRain members, almost all of which are real estate professionals and know that real estate market trends differ depending on geography. If the target audience of this post were those in Fort Worth, then Spencer probably would have phrased it differently. Our focus with quarterly reports is to analyze & publish all the data that we have on the housing market, and let people interpret the data for themselves (that's why we let people download the excel spreadsheets rather than writing a detailed report ourselves). Nationwide, Zestimates fell 6% -- that's a fact.

What I will do is take your suggestion to our data team as something to consider reporting on in the future. Thanks for the feedback.

Drew:  This is my last attempt at making my point.  Saying that nationwise, prices fell 6% is like saying the average score for all the NFL games this weekend was 27-17.  Statistically that may be true, but it doesn't tell anything about the score of the Cowboys game, or the Browns game, or the Jets game, or the Steelers game.  The number may be totally correct, but it tries to say so much that it ends up saying nothing pertinent.  Whew... I am done !

I've seen realtors who in the past boom went on a buying spree, financing RV's, cars and toys.  Now in the lean times, they are hiding from the repo man. 

An interesting post. I like the numbers, but what would be interesting would be to see how many agents didn't make it. Sort of a birth/death rate. I t would certainly put a different face on "Oh you're a realtor and make a lot of money for doing nothing." attitude that some consumers have about agents. :)

Wishing You HAPPY HOLIDAYS and Best Wishes for A GREAT YEAR 2008.

Tommy   New York Certified Home Inspector Long Island NY Nassau/Suffolk/Queens Home Inspections