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A Changing Real Estate Market In Tucson

By
Real Estate Agent with Tierra Antigua Realty

If you were to watch the news and trust that they are right you would think that the Tucson real estate market is prime for the picking for buyers. Touting that there are so many foreclosures and short sales on the market that there are super great deals to be had. There are good deals out there. The lower end of the market is drying up though. Buyers are faced with a similar dilemma they faced in 2004 through 2006 before the bottom fell out. 

The absorption rate has dropped to as close to normal as has been seen in months. Which means that the tide is headed out for a Buyer's market. There are fewer low end homes today than there were a year ago. What I am seeing consistently is multiple offers on any decent property. Buyers are faced with paying more than what they originally hoped to pay. No more low ball offers. Either Buyers have to compete at the asking price or above. Instead of looking at a $150,000 home and offering $140,000 Buyers have to offer closer to the asking price. So now for that $140,000 buy they must look at the fewer available homes at or near the $140,000 asking price. 

As they lower end home market dries up the ripple effect will work it's way up the price ranges. Without good restraint we could see a repeat of 2004 through 2006. Of course the banks have mor restrictions today to prevent a repeat. However, if investor greed gets hold things could change again. I heating big investors advertising to  tge radio o get rich on the Tucson real estate market. Indicting with incomes of $10,000 a month. Buyer beware, the market is changing. There are strong indications that the Tucson real estate market surpassed the bottom and is well on the road to recovery. Let's pray it's slow, methodical and controlled. 

In summary, if you are a buyer sitting on the fence post in the Tucson real estate market the better deals are quickly passing you buy. Gotta run now to submit another contract and preview another home. 

Comments(11)

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Li Read
Sea to Sky Premier Properties (Salt Spring) - Salt Spring Island, BC
Caring expertise...knowledge for you!

Well said!   I think the entry level price point has had a resurgence in all regions.    Next step is the upper tier priced properties will pick up in sales volume, and as inventory clears out...it's back to seller's control again.   Hmmm....the bottom-bottom was back in Oct 2010 to Oct 2011???

Apr 13, 2012 02:06 AM
Myrl Jeffcoat
Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Realtor - Retired

I share your thoughts about a slow, methodical and controlled recovery.  In the past 30 years we have had these housing cycles before.  I remember one particular cycle, where it felt like a bungee jump recovery.  We went from the gutter to the stratusphere in a millisecond.  That isn't healthy either!

Apr 13, 2012 02:29 AM
Adrian Willanger
206 909-7536 AdrianWillanger-broker.com - Seattle, WA
Profit from my two decades of experience

Douglas, this is great information, I certainly will pass it on to the NW snowbirds. 

Apr 13, 2012 02:32 AM
Karen Fiddler, Broker/Owner
Karen Parsons-Fiddler, Broker 949-510-2395 - Mission Viejo, CA
Orange County & Lake Arrowhead, CA (949)510-2395

I just posted something similar....we are having a multiple offer market here in So Cal too. 

Apr 13, 2012 02:40 AM
Bryan Robertson
Los Altos, CA

I'm glad to hear your market has finally hit this point.  We've hit that point and passed it in Silicon Valley so hopefully you'll see a seller's market soon.

Apr 13, 2012 07:06 AM
MaryKay Shumway
Dwell Door County Real Estate - Sister Bay, WI
Door County Wisconsin's Real Estate Expert

We watch the "primary" markets very carefully here in a seasonal market, but we're seeing a turn-around, also.  Thank you for the information.

Apr 13, 2012 07:08 AM
Kathy Stoltman
Ventura, CA
RETIRED

That is really good news coming from the Tucson area.  Here locally we are seeing multiple offers, especially at the lower end.  Endless conversations with buyers to write their highest and best and do so quickly or the property will be gone.

Apr 13, 2012 08:57 AM
Jerimiah Taylor
Keller Williams Southern Arizona - Tucson, AZ
Great observations here sir! I think Tucson's top listing agent
Apr 13, 2012 10:13 PM
Cara Marcelle Mancuso
Golden Girls with SW Desert Homes - Tucson, AZ
Call a Marana neighbor, I'm THERE!

Nice to meet you in person the other day, Doug.  It is difficult to snag the investment/fix-up properties that are relatively sound now, isn't it!

Apr 14, 2012 01:24 AM
Douglas Trudeau
Tierra Antigua Realty - Tucson, AZ
MBA, Assoc. Broker, Selling Tucson Real Estate
Thanks everyone. Cara, we make offer after offer after offer. Return on investment is getting narrower and narrower. He doesn't want to discount quality of the work he does on homes. We talked about moving into a higher priced market since he puts into the homes nearly as much as he has been paying for them. It's good to work with an Investor who cares that the Buyers get a home they will enjoy for years instead of just making a profit. If you've ever seen his homes you'll see there is a Grand Canyon between the quality of his work and his competition. The wife designs it, and he turns into Michael Angelo. I got really lucky and thank God I met them.
Apr 14, 2012 01:34 AM
Tammy Adams
Birmingham, AL

Douglas, great post, and this seems to be a fairly common scenario in many places in the country with entry level priced homes. Very welcome news indeed!

Apr 15, 2012 11:57 AM