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Is there another wave of REOs coming? Maybe.

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Cornerstone Business Group Inc 0225086119

There seems to be a lot of confusion as to whether we've hit the bottomForeclosure Sign of the real estate value collapse, has the foreclosure wave receded and is the market starting to recover.  I'd love to tell you I have answers to all three, but I don't.  What I do know is what I'm seeing in my market.

During 2007 - 2010, whenever a wave of REOs was about to hit the local market, I would get a large volume of requests for BPOs from a dozen or so companies.  As the government got involved in the real estate market in 2009-2011, the number of local foreclosures began to decline along with the BPO requests.

In the summer of 2011, I received an email from a colleague who works directly with a number of large banks.  She said, the shadow inventory we've been hearing about for the past two years is huge, and it's going to be released in 2012, be ready.  We'll, it's 2012, and I'm ready.  I think.

Down ArrowWas she right?  Maybe, maybe not, but I'm starting to see a trend.  During 2007 - 2010, if a wave a REOs were about to hit our market, I would get four or five BPO requests in a week.  A big week might be five to eight. I did have thirteen from one company on one day, but that was extremely unusual.

Now, I'm receiving requests for BPOs, including interiors every week and almost everyday including weekends.  The requests are coming in three to five at a time.  The requests are spread over small number of companies working with a large number of banks.  That is 3 - 5 is per day.  To have fifteen to twenty-five requests a week is now the norm. 

Another indicator that a large wave of REOs is coming in the local Foreclosure signsmarket is your local paper.  Watch the local paper's listings of foreclosure sales.  We went from 1 - 2 a day to as many as 17 on one day.  I've had more REO companies contacting our company to ask if we would be willing to service their properties.  This week, I had one company ask if we could handle as many as 15 at a time. 

Is there a new wave of REOs coming to the market?  I believe so.  If history is any indicator of what's coming, it's going to be huge.  

Comments(24)

Mike Cooper, Broker VA,WV
Cornerstone Business Group Inc - Winchester, VA
Your Neighborhood Real Estate Sales Pro

Gary, in 2011, I whittled my BPO companies down to my favorite companies.  That went from 22 to about 12.  Of that dozen, I have about 6 I gladly work with.  Most of them also provide REOs.  They are the ones sending the requests.  I do believe it's a sign.  

Apr 28, 2012 11:29 PM
Jason Sardi
Auto & Home & Life Insurance throughout North Carolina - Charlotte, NC
Your Agent for Life

Mike - I suppose it depends upon the area.  Shocking, I know.  BPO's may be a good indicator.  I don't think we are totally out of the mess, but I have a feeling we are getting there slowly but surely.

Apr 28, 2012 11:37 PM
Mike Cooper, Broker VA,WV
Cornerstone Business Group Inc - Winchester, VA
Your Neighborhood Real Estate Sales Pro

I was hoping we were on the other side of the REO wave.  Our REO listings had been falling through the first quarter, but now they are growing again.  Not a good sign, but this too shall pass. 

Apr 28, 2012 11:40 PM
Kristine Ginsberg
Elite Staging and Redesign, LLC - Short Hills, NJ
NJ Home Stager

Mike - not being a Realtor, I don't have too much to contribute, but I will say that it seems that the market varies a lot depending on where you live. Living close to NYC, yet still in the suburbs and close to mass transit our area has not done too bad. I can't remember the last time I saw a foreclosure in our area. However, not surprisingly we also live in the most expensive part of the country and I often think of moving South where you can buy a house 4 times the size for the same price! Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

Apr 28, 2012 11:43 PM
Mike Cooper, Broker VA,WV
Cornerstone Business Group Inc - Winchester, VA
Your Neighborhood Real Estate Sales Pro

Come on down to Virginia, Kris.  We'll get you fixed up with a great house at a bargain price.  Beside, we need a great stager down here.  8-)

Apr 28, 2012 11:46 PM
Ken Brandon
Coldwell Banker Sea Coast Advantage (Jacksonville, NC) - Jacksonville, NC
Camp Lejeune, Jacksonville, NC

In NC, real estate agents cannot do a BPO unless there is a reasonable chance that agent will list the home. In my area we are predominantly a military market (so 98% VA loans), and their are specific designated agents that handle these VA REO homes, There would only be a few agents that could provide information about the increase of BPO requests. I will say that those agents handling the VA REO homes in this area ALL agree there are a significant number that will be entering the market in the next 12 months. 

Apr 28, 2012 11:48 PM
Harry F. D'Elia III
WEDO Real Estate and Beyond, LLC - Phoenix, AZ
Investor , Mentor, GRI, Radio, CIPS, REOs, ABR

I believe more homes will come but I do not see in BPO requests nor the homes going to auction.

Apr 28, 2012 11:52 PM
Dick Greenberg
New Paradigm Partners LLC - Fort Collins, CO
Northern Colorado Residential Real Estate

Hi Mike - At least we can handle the process of selling REO's and, in our market, they are distorting the market a lot less, tending to sell pretty much near real market value (adjusted for condition issues). A huge dump of them may force some discounting - but they might also fill that inventory gap many of us are experiencing. At least they're not short sales.

Apr 29, 2012 12:04 AM
Mike Cooper, Broker VA,WV
Cornerstone Business Group Inc - Winchester, VA
Your Neighborhood Real Estate Sales Pro

I was hoping we were beyond the REO market, but I'm a little concerned that's not the case.  

It would be nice to find out all of these BPOs are for refinance clients.

Apr 29, 2012 12:05 AM
Mike Cooper, Broker VA,WV
Cornerstone Business Group Inc - Winchester, VA
Your Neighborhood Real Estate Sales Pro

I'm with you on that, Dick.  I'd take 100 REOs to each short sale.  Oy!  

Apr 29, 2012 12:07 AM
Liz and Bill Spear
Transaction Alliance 513.520.5305 www.LizTour.com - Mason, OH
Transaction Alliance Cincinnati & Dayton suburbs

Mike, All I can look to is our number of scheduled sheriff's sales.  The last three weeks the number has been dropping significantly.  Don't know if that trend will hold or not, but I hope so.

Apr 29, 2012 01:16 AM
Andrea Bedard
Thompson Company, REALTORS® 240.593.2860 - Silver Spring, MD
Fluent in Real Estate & German, M.A. ABR ASP CIPS

Oh Boy, Mike, that's news I'd rather not read about! I hope the answer will be "maybe not" but your BPO request analysis sure sounds like it.

I remember reading the paper and turning page after page with notices. For the past year or so it's been more like a page or 2 and I haven't seen a change there (yet).

Apr 29, 2012 01:40 AM
Jennifer Prestwich
Henderson, Thornton, Broomfield and Westminster - Henderson, CO
Madison & Co Properties

Interesting, Mike.  I agree with you and Dick about REOs vs. Short sales.  Short sales aren't for the faint of heart!  Anyway, having more properties come to market in our area would probably be a good thing, as we are at incredible low inventory.  I'll be watching your posts to see how things play out.

Apr 29, 2012 02:01 AM
David Shamansky
US Mortgages - David Shamansky - Highlands Ranch, CO
Creative, Aggressive & 560 FICO - OK, Colorado Mtg

Yeah I have heard and see similar things too. One thing to keep in mind for anyone who wants to get a great deal is remember Real Estate is not a car. You cant replace the one you like and you will NEVER replace that location! Take advantage of what opportunity there is and dont get caught up in the hype

Apr 29, 2012 02:04 AM
Michael S. Bolton
Michael S. Bolton,Inc. - Zimmerman, MN
MN Appraiser

Good Morning Mike~I'm seeing the same thing for REO appraisal requests, and the word is that there is a lot more coming in the near future. Let's hope this will be the final wave, because I think we're starting to work our way through some of that funky financing that went on several years ago.

Have an AWESOME day!

 

Apr 29, 2012 02:10 AM
Gabe Sanders
Real Estate of Florida specializing in Martin County Residential Homes, Condos and Land Sales - Stuart, FL
Stuart Florida Real Estate

I'm seeing a large number of BPO requests from properties with no lis-pendens or listing, so I am assuming a number of refinances going on as well.

May 05, 2012 09:58 PM
Dorie Dillard Austin TX
Coldwell Banker Realty ~ 512.750.6899 - Austin, TX
NW Austin ~ Canyon Creek and Spicewood/Balcones

Good morning Mike,

I missed this post but am coming over from Kathy's picks for the week. Very interesting and I think for certain parts of the country could be very true. We need inventory in Austin..we are down 29% compared to last year and our short sales and foreclosures are back to normal. Thanks for your take on what you are hearing.

May 05, 2012 10:11 PM
Mike Cooper, Broker VA,WV
Cornerstone Business Group Inc - Winchester, VA
Your Neighborhood Real Estate Sales Pro

Gabe, for the first time ever, I've had these companies tell me when a property is a refi.  I'm glad they do that because it makes me more comfortable when doing drive-by BPOs.

Dorie, I've been watching your market.  You all are smoking!

May 05, 2012 10:35 PM
Susanna Haynie
CO-RE Group, LLC -Real estate sales and services - Colorado Springs, CO
Colorado Springs Realtor GRI CNE MCNE ePro MRP

Mike - if foreclosure sales are an indicator then I will have to hold on to my hat as the inventory is coming back on the market. We've had over the last 8 weeks HUGE amounts of sales!

May 06, 2012 01:05 AM
Mike Cooper, Broker VA,WV
Cornerstone Business Group Inc - Winchester, VA
Your Neighborhood Real Estate Sales Pro

Congrats, Susanna.  Our company has taken on a lot more REOs lately.  They seemed to nearly dry up in 2011.  Now, they are coming in waves.  Have fun!

May 06, 2012 01:08 AM