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"Real Estate and the 2nd Coming"

By Rich Jacobson

Real Estate Agent with Fathom Realty West Sound WA State 52404

January 08, 2008 06:04 PM

Okay, let me start off by saying that I mean no disrespect here. I am just as anxious for the 2nd Coming to happen as the next card-carrying evangelical fundamentalist (Come quickly, Lord Jesus!). But it seems that lately, we've had just as many people attempting to forecast the future of real estate as we do those who've attempted to predict the date and time for the return of the Son of Man.

"But concerning that day and hour no one knows, not even the angels of heaven,nor the Son, but the Father only."

~ Matthew 24:36 ~

In both instances, it's simply a best guess. No one knows for certain what's going to happen and when. Certainly there are indicators and previous cycle patterns to analyze and compare. But the reality remains, no one knows for certain.

But in real estate, there is one thing we can say with confidence - "No Two Markets are the Same!"

Just because some Wall Street ‘wannabe' claims that the 2nd Great Depression is looming right around the corner, doesn't make him right. Those guys earn a living on speculation! And if one more TV News Starlet, scratching her way to higher ratings, refers to the current housing market as a ‘Holocaust,' I promise I'm gonna hurl!

Are there areas in the US housing market where things are tough? You betcha! In some places, prices are dropping, valuations are decreasing, and foreclosures are rising at an alarming pace.

But there are just as many housing markets, if not more, that are experiencing ‘normal‘ conditions. By ‘normal,' I mean, experiencing the usual cycles historically associated with the real estate market. Every 8 to 10 years or so, we go through a market adjustment. After enjoying several years of very fast or brisk activity, the market begins to slow.

It is during these downturns, that the pessimistic media naysayers of ‘doom & gloom' act as though these kind of cycles have never happened to us before. The constant bombardment of their incessant negativity begins to affect us, and their created perception starts to become our reality.

Certainly, if one lone trader can adversely affect the cost of crude oil, then the constant negative bombardment of media hypesters can easily influence our perceptions over the current real estate market.

The real truth is that real estate is bad in some places, but not so bad in some, and still fairly good in others. Please, don't allow the Media's broad brush strokes to paint an incorrect picture of YOUR market. If you're looking to buy or sell, consult with your local real estate professional. No one is better equipped or knows your market more intimately than someone who is actively involved in providing expert representation in your specific area.

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Kim Wood

The Tech Byte - West Chester, PA

Kim Wood ~ The Tech Byte

Bring 'em both on - I'm ready!

Jan 08, 2008 09:26 PM

Carol Spengel

Prudential Rubloff - Wheaton, IL

Wheaton IL

I'm with ARDELL before I even read her comment. I love that AR has you full time, can't we read the whole article here? Which I guess brings me to another point I wasn't sure if I was able to ask: Are you still selling real estate and accepting referrals?

Jan 08, 2008 10:54 PM

Karen Rice Keller Williams Real Est

Keller Williams Real Estate - Hawley, PA

Northeast PA & Lake Wallenpaupack Home Sales

Love the title, and the frog!

but why can't you post it here? :(

Jan 09, 2008 12:12 AM

Rich Jacobson

Fathom Realty West Sound - Poulsbo, WA

Your Kitsap County WA Real Estate Broker

While I have the utmost respect for my fellow Rainer, ARDELL, this is one of those instances where we kindly disagree. Bait & Switch has two definitions - one in marketing/advertising in general, and another in the cyberspace. Neither definition applies to what I've done here. The link opens up into a seperate window, allowing you to view my blogsite without leaving the comforting confines of ActiveRain. 'Click-thru' is a very common practice on the internet. I have appreciated other ActiveRain members who have employed the same measures to introduce us to the greater blogosphere.

Sherry - yes, that's the plan at this point

Jan 09, 2008 01:19 AM

Gary Bolen

McCall Realty - South Lake Tahoe, CA

CRS - Lake Tahoe Real Estate Information

epiphany's are sometimes hard to come by. tough to manipulate too. we just have to wait. isn't it fun when they come in the middle of the night?

sorry I missed you when you called. gary was floored. and this year lets make sure we meet.

mom, son and grandson coming in starting today. her from the south, the rest from DC. and we've got 3 feet of snow at lake level.

best

Jan 09, 2008 01:20 AM

Colleen Fischesser Northwest Property Shop

NextHome Experience - Chelan, WA

A Tradition of Trust in the Pacific NW since 1990!

Great Post Rich, I love your outside blog so don't mind being "switched" at all....um the bait part bothers me just on principle ;-)

Joking aside, you make some great points and this is the message we should consistently be getting out to our Associates & consumers.

-Colleen

Jan 09, 2008 02:07 AM

Jeff Dowler, CRS

eXp Realty of California, Inc. - Carlsbad, CA

The Southern California Relocation Dude

Loved your article Rich. Have written similarly on my other blogs recently.

Jeff

Jan 09, 2008 02:12 AM

Carol Spengel

Prudential Rubloff - Wheaton, IL

Wheaton IL

You go Rich! I wish you much luck with 2 full time jobs. I'm sure you will do a great job at both.

Jan 09, 2008 02:49 AM

Fran Gatti

RE/MAX Integrity - Medford, OR

Managing Principal Broker - RE/MAX Integrity

Rich,

You did a great job at keeping it all in perspective. We need to all do the same.

Jan 09, 2008 04:42 AM

Celeste "SALLY" Cheeseman

Liberty Homes - Mililani, HI

(RA) AHWD CRS ePRO OAHU HAWAII REAL ESTATE

NO TWO MARKETS ARE THE SAME. Everytime the national news comes on and says Nationwide the market is this or that...our local news people do a thing on OUR market. Those numbers sure differ.

Jan 09, 2008 05:52 AM

Mike Norvell Sr

Morris Williams Realty - Leesburg, FL

Norvell Consulting Group

Nice post Rich, I have come to realize since I came to AR that Real Estate is not only local, but even diverse within the localities...ALso, another mans trash....we made the switch to buying up properties...while I continue to hear nothing but wailing and knashing of teeth from many of my local compadres...Out of 28,000 listings, in our Central Fl area, approx 940 were sold, do the math...So from your corner to my corner, we should expect a difference, in fact we have a difference within 10 mile radious, based on neighborhoods and shuch.....One thing is clear, the wide brush paints all, so even neighborhoods that should be appreciating are taking the hit...not a good time to HAVE to sell..not a good time at all

Jan 09, 2008 05:56 AM

Ginger Wilcox

Sindeo - San Francisco, CA

Glad to hear you are still accepting referrals. I can't imagine finding someone more qualified in your area. :o ) Excellent points. Isn't it sad how the media can do a sweeping generalization and nearly cripple markets who aren't suffering anywhere near the reported claims? Thank goodness for blogging, it is the best way to counteract the media.

Jan 09, 2008 01:52 PM

Sandy Nelson

Riley Jackson Real Estate Inc. - Olympia, WA

your Olympia area Realtor

Rich,

If there's one thing I can say about this country, it's that it's refreshingly unpredictable and resilient. One just needs to look at how quickly the economy got back on its feet after 9-11 and after hurricane Katrina, despite all the dire predictions.

Sandy

Jan 09, 2008 02:01 PM

Katerina Gasset

The Gasset Group & Get It Done For Me Virtual Services - Provo, UT

Amplify Your Real Estate & Life Dreams!

Rich- Real estate is very very local, all the way down to the household of the agent living therein! It is miserable in Florida but we are busy as bees. We have multiple offers in an area where the absorption rate is over 40 months. We are in an area where agents are leaving left and right, the press is horrendous and I do not watch the news or read the paper so that I can attract to me all the closings. There were only 14 closings in one town we work in and we had 2 of them. It is all in what you focus on. We focus on the deals we want to close not on what is not going to close. Katerina

Jan 09, 2008 05:37 PM

Gary Bolen

McCall Realty - South Lake Tahoe, CA

CRS - Lake Tahoe Real Estate Information

Congrats on the Cicerone list. Told him that your mention was appreciated too. Also told Margaret today how we first met online. Now am wondering why I got up at 4 am and have already been working for an hour. Nuts, I'd call it.

Jan 09, 2008 11:01 PM

John Slocum

Premiere Property Group, LLC - Vancouver Washington - Vancouver, WA

Broker, SFR - Vancouver WA Real Estate

Hello Rich,

I heard on a recent Dean Jackson podcast that in the game of tennis: "every shot is good for at least one side," which may well describe the current real estate market in SW Washington. Right now our market is a great opportunity for buyers looking to make: 1) a move up; 2) first-time buy; or, 3) an investment. For Sellers, when their home has increased in value over 50% in the past few years, then perhaps slid back 1.5% - 2% in 2007; you can still get showings and offers when you are positioned correctly (Price, Staged, with a Kick-Ass Marketing Team!).

It's Raining today in SW Washington!

John

Jan 10, 2008 04:32 AM

Jon Mitchell

Classic Property Management - Santa Clarita, CA

I am so tired of the way that the media handles things. They are constantly looking for the worst in any situation and then blow it out of proportion. Unfortunately, there are several people who take anything thats on TV as gospel truth... It is time to think for yourselves folks!!

Jan 10, 2008 06:00 AM

Margaret Woda

Long & Foster Real Estate, Inc. - Crofton, MD

Maryland Real Estate & Military Relocation

Like everyone else, we hear a constant barrage about the terrible market, how homeowners all around us are dropping like flies... Yet my study this week of local real estate conditions are not that much different from last year other than more DOM, and there's "only" one property in the entire zipcode that turns up in a search for any of the following: REO, short sale, foreclosure, or pre-foreclosure. The real estate market is local, just like the weather!

Jan 10, 2008 10:38 AM

Karen Rice Keller Williams Real Est

Keller Williams Real Estate - Hawley, PA

Northeast PA & Lake Wallenpaupack Home Sales

I have heard potential buyers say "They're starving! They need to sell!" about the sellers.

They are so wrong. Sure, we do have some sellers with financial issues...but the majority of our homes are vacation homes - 2nd and 3rd homes for some people. People who are well to do, and can afford to wait for their price, and who DO wait for their price.

But because the market is "bad" in certain parts of the country, they think it's all over. Because some parts of the country had overinflated prices which are now adjusting themselves accordingly, doesn't mean that ALL markets have overinflated prices ready to crash down.

Yet, try and explain this to them and they look at you like you're out of touch with reality, just blowing off confidence, like steam...

Jan 10, 2008 12:44 PM

Laurie Mindnich

Centennial, CO

Your point is very well taken. It IS different in various markets, and although the majority are "touched" in some way, it's not catastrophic. Unless you live there. Then, it's absolutely dreadful, and historically, over in a few short years that seem like eternity for sellers. It's TEMPORARY. For real estate agents, it's simply make-or-break, much like trying out for a sport or club or whatever- move along if financial waves just don't work. Consistency in real estate takes years of redundancy in order to achieve any kind of consistency. Opinion.

Jan 13, 2008 08:44 AM