Almost mid-year numbers

By
Real Estate Agent with Windermere Real Estate 11741

We're just a few weeks away from the mid-way point in our markets and Missoula (much like other areas around our region) has had a very strong second quarter so far.  In fact when I prepared stats for the Missoula Organization of REALTORS(R) I knew the numbers would look good, however I didn't think they'd look this solid. 

 

Now with the info below you can take this two ways.  On one side there's the lower/normal supply rates in many segments suggesting a healthy market (range of 3 to 9 months absorption rate).  This is good for sellers and our market in general suggesting something we've not seen in almost 5 years.  On the other hand for buyers, while rates remain stupid-low, opportunities and availability is dwindling.  I can speak personally of a few clients who would make a move on the right property - but no such options exist in our current market. 

 

So lets look at what I found, first off - the segmented rates:

 

absorption rates

 

As you can see all but 425+ is looking much better.  This is a sign of two things, increased buyer activity and fewer listings on the market. 

 

Moving onto early volume numbers:

Missoula's volume numbers

 

A 21% increase in volume without a government tax credit to drive it is huge - however one has to wonder if the current low interest rates are essentially doing the same thing as the tax credit did in 2010?  As you can see in the chart below, 2010 was a nice blip in activity, and 2012 so far is mimicing it:

 

volume

Finally a snapshot at median sales prices:

 

median

The big question of course would hover around the interest rates and how much they've pumped up the market.  These charts and numbers point to strong gains and recovery, however is this sustainable or is it just a micro-burst?  Unfortunately I don't have an answer right now, time will tell.  As rates climb back up slowly if market activity stays strong this could be a good indicator that we're back on the path to recovery.  If volume and median sales prices drop off again, we'll probably see more deflation in our values and a drop in sales volume as the rates continue to climb.

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