Real Estate Market Reports - Value Trending
Real Estate Market Reports - Value Trending - is generally viewed Nationally (i.e., S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index) or Regionally (NWMLS, Terradatum). Even with that distinction the experts are split on where the market is currently and where it is trending. Here’s what I mean:
Beginning with the April 2012 HPI report, CoreLogic is introducing a new and exclusive
metric—the CoreLogic pending HPI that provides the most current indication of trends in home
prices. The pending HPI indicates that house prices will rise by at least another 2.0 percent,
from April to May. Pending HPI is based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data that measure
price changes in the most recent month.
“We see the consistent month-over-month increases within our HPI and Pending HPI as one sign that the housing market is stabilizing,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and chief executive officer of CoreLogic. “Home prices are responding to a restricted supply that will likely exist for some time to come—an optimistic sign for the future of our industry.”
Another perspective:
Experts surveyed by Zillow expect home prices to decline slightly in 2012 and predict they will bottom in 2013, according to the June 2012 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey.
The respondents’ June prediction for home prices is that they will fall 0.4 percent in 2012, and then rise by 1.3 percent in 2013. In 2014, they expect home prices to rise by 2.5 percent, then rise by 3 percent in 2015, and then go up by 3.3 percent in 2016.
The most optimistic quartile of experts predicted, on average, a 1 percent increase in 2012, and the most pessimistic quartile of respondents expected to see an average decline of 2 percent.
(Had to go to Webster’s Dictionary for that)Definition of QUARTILE
: any of the three values that divide the items of a frequency distribution into four classes with each containing one fourth of the total population; also: any one of the four classes
“It’s good to start to see some convergence of expectations among economists, as it lends further support to the claim that a bottom is real,” said Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries.
The NWMLS and Terradatum both disagree with the above-mentioned experts. To wit:
Apparently King County Real Estate is diametrically opposed to the National Trend and about ninety degrees away from the CoreLogic evaluation as well. The chart expresses our local real estate market trends quite clearly. No speculation or conjecture, just the facts, folks.
Not often this occurs, but it looks like we’re in the best of both worlds right now - home values are nudging up appreciably (helps when you’re “underwater”) and mortgage rates are down significantly (again helps when you’re “underwater” because new money is likely cheaper than what your mortgage originally cost). Of course, the multiple-offer events we’ve witnessed are, imho, anomalies that will fade away as the market adjusts to higher pricing on homes for sale OR if the inventory held in abeyance by the banks (foreclosures, reo’s, etc.) is suddenly released to flood the market with new inventory. Stay tuned for more info on that venue...
JL4PL
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