I wanted to make a little closer look at the numbers for last year, now that we're into January. In Ada County we finished 2007 -34% in homes sold compared to 2006, and off 33% in total sales dollars. For the year, the median price was off 2%, most of which happened in the last few months as the mortgage problem reared its head and gave us all fits in the Fall.
I've mentioned New Construction inventory being steadily worked through, and that our area hadn't overbuilt to the same degree seen in other markets in the country. The end of the year numbers bear that out. In February of 2007 we had nearly 1800 new construction homes listed in Ada County. At the end of December we had 1168. That is quite an improvement, and it is reflected across all price ranges too, except the over $1M range, where sales are running only 1 or 2 per month for both new and resale (but do you remember when a $1M property was a rare thing here? It wasn't that long ago!) And in the underr $200K range we have been building inventory since last Spring, although, as you mught expect, there is still pretty good demand in that range.
Existing inventory is showing an increase since January/February of last year, although the current total is below the Summer peak in August. Last year at this timethere was about a six month supply in Ada County homes for sale over all prices, and right now it is about 11 months. Watching the inventory numbers overall shrink but the "absorption rate" increase, you can see how the real estate market has slowed.
These numbers only tell the broad outline, they don't tell the details. In the under $200K range there is a 5-7 month supply, while over $700K the supply is nearly 3 years. By comparison, some areas in Florida have a nearly 10 year supply! The big numbers also don't show the details across the county by area. Star has too much inventory in all price ranges, both new construction and existing homes. Eagle inventory over $300K is high, but Kuna is even higher, mostly in existing homes. As you might guess, North Boise under $300K is still moving a little better than the rest of the county, and Northwest Boise is almost as good, followed by the Bench area under $300K.
Meridian is a big area, and it is of course a mixed bag. Most of the inventory, both new and existing, is in the Northwest and Northeast parts of Meridian, where the supply right now is about 9 to 12 months. South of the freeway has fewer homes for sale, but fewer sales as well, so the supply is a bit longer, with the higher end homes in the Southwest side having the greatest supply in terms of time needed to work through it.
Are there any bright spots right now? Anecdotally, there is more traffic in the subdivisions and open houses again. Inquiries from out of state have picked up as well. Interest rates are lower this January than they were in 2007, and my lenders tell me there are still good programs out there. And while it is not a "hot" market, we've seen a jump in pending contracts over the last 10 days, from 366 to 426 this morning, which is the first pop we've seen in awhile, so we'll take it.
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