Posted by The KCM Group - 30 Jul 2012
With the economic recovery sluggish at best, many ask what impact this has on housing. Over the last several years, most economists believed that housing would not recover until the overall economy recovered. However, it now seems that the housing sector may be a driving influence in the recovery.
Here are four reports released in the last 30 days affirming this point:
“In terms of its contribution to real GDP, residential fixed investment has been a positive – albeit modest – force over the most recent four quarters, marking its longest span of back-to-back positive results since 2005.”
“The [overall] resumption in residential activity cannot be understated as the long awaited housing recovery should help buoy consumer confidence and provide a mild lift to second half economic output after what was likely a disappointing first half of the year.”
“The data from the past month collectively point to decelerating economic growth, but growth nonetheless…However, despite signs of deteriorating momentum for economic activity, housing continues to be a bright spot as news from the housing market has been relatively upbeat, presenting a rare upside boost to the economy.”
“As we look back at previous major housing recoveries, 1975 and 1991 began with negative jobs growth…In each case, the home sales recovery was fueled by home price improvement, driving new job growth and those jobs creating a fresh wave of demand that supported a multi-year recovery in housing.”
Is housing a victim to the current economic malaise? No. It may even be the cure.
Here are four reports released in the last 30 days affirming this point:
Morgan Stanley
“In terms of its contribution to real GDP, residential fixed investment has been a positive – albeit modest – force over the most recent four quarters, marking its longest span of back-to-back positive results since 2005.”
Deutsche Bank
“The [overall] resumption in residential activity cannot be understated as the long awaited housing recovery should help buoy consumer confidence and provide a mild lift to second half economic output after what was likely a disappointing first half of the year.”
Fannie Mae
“The data from the past month collectively point to decelerating economic growth, but growth nonetheless…However, despite signs of deteriorating momentum for economic activity, housing continues to be a bright spot as news from the housing market has been relatively upbeat, presenting a rare upside boost to the economy.”
Goldman Sachs
“As we look back at previous major housing recoveries, 1975 and 1991 began with negative jobs growth…In each case, the home sales recovery was fueled by home price improvement, driving new job growth and those jobs creating a fresh wave of demand that supported a multi-year recovery in housing.”
Is housing a victim to the current economic malaise? No. It may even be the cure.
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