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"I feel like the market is over inflated right now..."

By
Real Estate Agent with Compass CA DRE# 01215160

Yesterday's question from my client:

"I feel like that the market is over inflated right now.  What are your thoughts on that? We don't want to buy during a rebound just to find out that housing prices will come down next year."

My response:

"I wish I had a definitive answer for you, but no crystal ball here. What keeps the Peninsula market consistently strong is the shortage of inventory, the lack of land for building new large scale developments, and the strong, diverse employment opportunities, ones with high-paying jobs. People want to live here and the prices reflect that.

Generally the market softens a bit this time of year--prices might not decline, but the demand wanes and buyers can negotiate some. We're not seeing that this year at all. Extremely low interest rates and pent-up demand from buyers who held off the last few years due to feelings of uncertainty have created high demand.

Short of a world-wide depression, or a cataclysmic earthquake, if one is buying to make a home for the long term, my belief is that it makes a lot of sense to buy."

Perhaps this chart from Steve Harney and KCM (Keeping Current Matters) best explains that it's the cost of an investment that's important, rather than the price.

Graph cost of homes 2001 & 2012

I'm practicing what I preach: we're actively looking for investment property to purchase on the mid-Peninsula.

 

Lottie Kendall
Compass - San Francisco, CA
Helping make your real estate dreams a reality

Hello Li and Nancy - we seem to have a widespread phenomena, with too few homes for sale. Buyers feel beaten up!

Roger - thanks for the suggest, and I'm glad you liked my answer.

Sussie - and when rates go up, the cost of buying immediately rises

 

Sep 08, 2012 01:05 AM
Harry F. D'Elia III
WEDO Real Estate and Beyond, LLC - Phoenix, AZ
Investor , Mentor, GRI, Radio, CIPS, REOs, ABR

The market is what it is and it is best to accept the market and move on to purchase a home

Sep 08, 2012 01:05 AM
Janis Borgueta
Newburgh, NY
Retired RE Salesperson

Lottie.. it should be something that a buyer asks, but with your explanation it should make sense for them to see that this area is not what they are hearing in the news for the entire country. Real estate is forever local and that is what matters. It is important to be a realtor that knows the particular market and just what the market numbers are.

Sep 08, 2012 01:05 AM
Lottie Kendall
Compass - San Francisco, CA
Helping make your real estate dreams a reality

Laura, we get it, but buyers don't always. I try to get the message out as often as I can. Thanks for the suggest!

Sharon, this timing works for me!

Lloyd, you nailed it!

Amanda, it's only a matter of time

Michael, I hate it when buyers wait too long and lose out in a rapidly rising market.

Sep 08, 2012 01:10 AM
Lottie Kendall
Compass - San Francisco, CA
Helping make your real estate dreams a reality

Richie - LOL! Too often I feel that way myself!

Andrew, you're right about our Bay Area market sizzling. The client who is concerned bought a house about 3 years ago; they're ready for their move-up home but feel beaten up. We put an offer in on one place--we offered more than 8% over asking, were 1 of 11 offers received, and didn't make the top 5! I'll be here for them, and hope I can allay some of their worries. Being a buyer here isn't easy.

Kevin, it sounds like your market is a carbon copy of ours.

Sep 08, 2012 01:15 AM
Lottie Kendall
Compass - San Francisco, CA
Helping make your real estate dreams a reality

Harry and Janis - thanks for sharing your wisdom.

Sep 08, 2012 01:19 AM
Cindy Jones
Integrity Real Estate Group - Woodbridge, VA
Pentagon, Fort Belvoir & Quantico Real Estate News
To often buyers focus on the wrong thing. Pointing out the difference in 10k in sales price at today's mortgage rates is often an eye opener. They don't realize it is a small change in the monthly payment. .
Sep 08, 2012 01:35 AM
Melissa Marro
Keller Williams First Coast Realty - The Marro Team - Orange Park, FL
Jacksonville Real Estate and Home Staging

It is amazing to me to think that anyone thinks that this market is over inflated... seriously? 

Sep 08, 2012 07:02 AM
Debbie Cook
Long & Foster Real Estate, Inc - Silver Spring, MD
Silver Spring and Takoma Park Maryland Real Estate

That was a wonderful answer.  My clients say that a lot - they feel everything is overpriced.  I think it's just a distraction or a throwaway objection.

Sep 08, 2012 11:23 AM
Joan Whitebook
BHG The Masiello Group - Nashua, NH
Consumer Focused Real Estate Services

The lower inventory in my area is putting some pressure on buyers to be prepared and to make decisions on what they want to purchase.   If a property is in good condtion and priced for the market, we are seeing multiple offers.

Sep 08, 2012 12:51 PM
Evelyn Kennedy
Alain Pinel Realtors - Alameda, CA
Alameda, Real Estate, Alameda, CA

Lottie:

I agree with you about buying income property.  Don't wait buy now.  I have been trying to talk my husband into buying more income property.  The chart you show is a good picture of the market today. 

Sep 08, 2012 02:57 PM
Gary Frimann, CRS, GRI, SRES
Eagle Ridge Realty / Signature Homes & Estates - Gilroy, CA
REALTOR and Broker

I know more people who are reluctant to get on the merry go round, and as a matter of fact, they will probably miss out again.  

Sep 08, 2012 03:08 PM
Kathy Clulow
Uxbridge, ON
Trusted For Experience - Respected For Results

Lottie - great answer ..... short term thinking is not something one should practice when buying a long term investment, especially one that you can live in while your investment grows.

Sep 09, 2012 12:17 AM
Celeste "SALLY" Cheeseman
Liberty Homes - Mililani, HI
(RA) AHWD CRS ePRO OAHU HAWAII REAL ESTATE

It sure does make a lot of sense. Bottom line...if they are making that house a home and their personal circumstances allow....then it IS time.

Sep 09, 2012 04:35 AM
Gary L. Waters Broker Associate, Bucci Realty
Bucci Realty, Inc. - Melbourne, FL
Eighteen Years Experience in Brevard County

Optimism, pessimism, skepticism...all exist in the real estate market.  Ask a dozen people and my guess is you will find it all.  And occasionally you will even find realism!

Sep 09, 2012 04:42 AM
Laura Murray
Weichert - Silver Spring, MD
Search Montgomery Co., MD for homes www.MDRealEstateOnline.com
Same here, it is a sellers market. Anything that is attractive and well priced can expect multiple full or close to full price contracts. The day of low ball offers getting traction are gone. Buyers need to recognize the new reality.
Sep 09, 2012 05:33 AM
Peggy Hughes/pha logistix, inc.
pha logistix inc - San Francisco, CA
SF NYC LA

Very thoughtful answer Lottie. Since real estate is one of the most major purchases in one's life, it just doesn't make sense to to not do it for the long term.

Sep 09, 2012 07:23 AM
Lottie Kendall
Compass - San Francisco, CA
Helping make your real estate dreams a reality

Cindy, I try to help people think of the cost of a purchase, not just the price. Sometimes you can see the lightbulb light up when they 'get it.'

Melissa, real estate is definitely local; I can understand my buyers' frustration and worry; when every place you investigate gets snapped up in a matter of days, with multiple offers, all over asking, it's hard for them not to be discouraged.

Debbie -- those statements sometimes help people feel better, even when they don't believe them.

Erica, a balanced market is delightful!

Joan, your motivated buyers should have no trouble in finding a good home--if they act decisively.

Sep 09, 2012 01:15 PM
Cara Marcelle Mancuso
Golden Girls with SW Desert Homes - Tucson, AZ
Call a Marana neighbor, I'm THERE!

I still run into folks worried about the "double dip" economy.  I just move on.  They don't want to see statistics and numbers.  As you say, we don't have crystal balls, but we can make informed decisions based on the history and current market scenarios.  Those same voices have told me about this year's "End of Days" as well.  Guess I don't want to live only looking at the negatives.

Sep 10, 2012 12:54 AM
Lottie Kendall
Compass - San Francisco, CA
Helping make your real estate dreams a reality

Cara, we can try to educate buyers, help them remember why they wish to purchase that next home. Ultimately, finding the courage to act is in their ballpark.

Sep 10, 2012 03:50 AM