How Long Will Interest Rates Stay Low? QE3 and the SF Bay Area

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Mortgage and Lending with Caliber Home Loans NMLS# 242952

Well that answer today is until 2015!

But before we go into that, just what does Quantitative Easing mean anyway? Well, in short – normally when the economy is struggling the Federal Reserve will reduce short term interest rates to encourage more lending and spending. However, interest rates have already been cut as low as they can go- so what to do? Well, that’s where quantitative easing comes in. 

Since the Federal Reserve can essentially create money, it can buy up assets like long-term Treasuries or mortgage-backed securities from commercial banks and other institutions. This pumps money into the economy and reduces long-term interest rates further. When long-term interest rates go down, investors have more incentive to spend their money now. In theory.

Haven’t We Tried This Before?

The central bank has tried using quantitative easing twice before- in November 2008 and again in October 2010 (known as QE1 and QE2). So did it help? There has been plenty of research on this question. The first round of quantitative easing appeared to be effective in preventing the economy from sinking into a giant depression. Economists say this was because everyone realized the Fed would do whatever it takes to avoid deflation. It was essentially a giant confidence boost. The economy stopped sliding and inflation slowly rose. But the effects seemed to dwindle as the years went by. Experts are much more divided on how much QE2 has helped.

In theory, quantitative easing should work in two ways. First, it injects more cash into banks, allowing them to lend more. And second, it lowers interest rates — if the Fed buys up a bunch of mortgage-backed securities, for example, that should make it cheaper to borrow money to buy a house. In practice, interest rates do drop. But it’s hard to figure out whether this translates into a boost in the actual economy.

So now back to how long interest rates will stay low in the near future….

The Federal Reserve has actually done two things to try and improve QE3. First, the Fed will keep short-term interest rates low until mid-2015. Second, the central bank will buy up $85 billion worth of assets each month between now and the end of the year. But, unlike QE1 or QE2, this new round of purchases will be more open-ended. That’s an important change. Here’s the key bit from the Fed statement:

“If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved”

The purchases will continue until morale improves. What’s more, the Fed noted that it will continue its policy of easy money “for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens.”

Will This Help Home Values In The San Francisco Bay Area?

If you ask me? Yes!  I believe it will help home values here in the Bay Area. Recently we have seen a very different purchase market than in previous years, a lack of inventory, multiple offers, and over bidding.  People are still writing offers even in September when it usually slows down for the school year.

For a quick quote of today low rates visit:

Refinance Advisor

 

Purchase Assistant

 

Garrick Werdmuller, 510.282.5456, info@garrick.biz

 

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