"Real estate is local" Gary Shilling Knows Nothing

Real Estate Agent with Compass

A broken clock gets the time right twice a day...

Gary Shilling, a broken record has never been right.

This week the media had numerous articles about the "so-called" famous economist Gary Shilling not ready to call the national housing market a bottom yet. In fact, he expects prices to drop another 20 percent from here and doesn't think we will see a bottom in the market for another several years.

Is Gary a day late and a dollar short?  HA

Doeas anyone care what he thinks? Is there really a national housing market?

I can't speak for other markets but here in Manhattan we're on fire. Bidding wars, all cash buyers, foreign buyers, investor buyers, first time buyers everyone is out buying.

He's talking about a bottom? Don't bottoms come during buyer's markets? Did he miss the memo? I think we bottomed here in 2009. I can tell Gary we are in a a strong seller's, owner's landlord's market. Rents are at all time highs and vacancy rates are at all time lows. We are seeing bidding wars on rentals at the same time many renters have discovered it's cheaper to own then to rent so renters are out buying at 3% mortgage interest rates competing with all cash investors and pied-a-terre buyers.

Does any one really want to hear predictions from the boy who cried wolf?

Hey I have charts too Gary!

Manhattan market August 2012

Manhattan market August 2012

And My charts are better than yours...

because I'm a real estate broker, I'm out selling real estate everyday and my charts come from actual closed sales data and contractas from my local brokerage not from some one in an ivory tower named Gary Shilling.

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Re-Blogged 2 times:

Re-Blogged By Re-Blogged At
  1. Courtney Cooper 09/21/2012 04:08 AM
  2. Gabe Sanders 09/23/2012 09:18 PM
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Chris Smith
Re/Max Chay Realty Inc., Brokerage - New Tecumseth, ON
South Simcoe, Caledon, King, Orangeville Real Esta
Mitchell, I cannot agree with you more. My market, north and west of Toronto is always being lumped in with the GTA, but we have many local factors that cause our market to move that are very different than Toronto
Sep 19, 2012 10:38 PM #1
Janis Borgueta
Key Properties of the Hudson Valley - Newburgh, NY
LIC RE Salesperson

Great to have the facts rigth and disprove the syndicated TV people that know absolutely nothing about what they are talking about! Good to see your market so hot!

Sep 19, 2012 11:06 PM #2
Peggy Hughes/pha logistix, inc.
pha logistix inc - San Francisco, CA

I've never understood why people want to lump statistics for the entire US together when it is the local markets that drive their own economy.... great post, Mitchell.

Sep 20, 2012 02:49 AM #3
Dale Terry
Yadkinville, NC

Housing has not bottomed in the US.  It may be great in your areas, but in aggregate, it is still dropping.  The recent admission from the Fed by its QE3 stimulus proves it.

Sep 20, 2012 08:44 PM #4
Courtney Cooper
Ben Kinney Brokerages Leadership at our Keller Williams North Seattle Office - Seattle, WA

Hi ther e- I agree with you in the markets I am working and have suggested this for a feature as well as reblogged it - have a nice weekend!

Sep 21, 2012 04:09 AM #5
Gabe Sanders
Real Estate of Florida specializing in Martin County Residential Homes, Condos and Land Sales - Stuart, FL
Stuart Florida Real Estate

Mitchell, it's interesting to see the pundits pursue their own agenda and finding the statistics to back themselves up, while ignoring reality.

Sep 21, 2012 09:15 PM #6
Mitchell J Hall
Compass - Manhattan, NY
Lic Associate RE Broker - Manhattan & Brooklyn

Chris, Thanks I think all real estate is local.

Janis, Shilling is a bear. Fore 20 years he was predicting a bear market.

Peggy, Statistics are easily manipulated and not always accurate. Manhattan numbers are rarely included in National studies. Even local statistics are wrong because the NY AD market which includes 3 states and many counties.

Dale, I believe all real estate is local. There may be a national aggregate but in my opinion it doesn't mean much. I don't think averages and medians mean much either. They can determine trends but most people don't buy an average or median home.

Courtney, Thank you. Have a great weekend.

Gabe, Gary Shilling is a famous for being bearish on housing. Some places may never recover. Even local markets can be neighborhood specific.

Sep 22, 2012 12:21 AM #7
John MacArthur
Century 21 Redwood - Washington, DC
Licensed Maryland/DC Realtor, Metro DC Homes


Shilling falls into the same crap basket that holds Jim Cramer, Larry Yun, Rush Limbaugh and Jon Stewart. They are all "entertainers".  If they can stand on the edge and speak loudly enough, they will garner the attention they seek.  I always like to keep in mind that there is nothing in the wind but hot air moving. Let them blow hard. The gentle breeze that wafts through local neighborhoods varies in strength and direction. Housing is as capricious as everything else impacted by local conditions.

Dopes, they are all dopes.

Sep 23, 2012 09:58 PM #8
Wayne Johnson
Coldwell Banker D'Ann Harper REALTORS® - San Antonio, TX
San Antonio REALTOR, San Antonio Homes For Sale

Mitchell-If you give a competent statistician enough variables, they can usually come up with a number of charts and graphs that can support many arguments, on both sides of the issue.

Sep 24, 2012 05:21 AM #9
Mitchell J Hall
Compass - Manhattan, NY
Lic Associate RE Broker - Manhattan & Brooklyn

Hi John, Excelent! I never thought of Schiling as an entertainer but you are absolutely correct. He probably makes a nice living from all the tv shows he's on.

Wayne, Good point. So true. Any good statistician can manipilate stats to support their argument. I'm not even a statistician and I know how to make comps support a high or low appraisal depending on which side of the transaction I'm on,-)

Sep 24, 2012 05:51 AM #10
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Mitchell J Hall

Lic Associate RE Broker - Manhattan & Brooklyn
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