Corelogic® Market Pulse Report
Millions of homes are going to hit the market, prices are going to drop like a rock! Real Estate is going up, up, up.. Housing rebound is on the way so buy, buy, buy!! Banks are waiting until the election to dump all their inventory on the market!! ARRRRGH! It's all a conspiracy!
Corelogic® just recently released their latest Market Pulse Report dated 10/12/12 based on August sales numbers with all kinds of interesting information and analysis. Reading over it there are many positive projections concerning distressed home sales going down, the reduction in foreclosure notice filings, home prices trending up, etc., etc.
All kinds of geeky analysis and projections worth pondering for people sitting on the fence... to sit on the fence even longer and draw up some more conspiracy theories.
No mention of Rent Vs. Buy projections, average mortgage payment with today's rates... ya know... all of that worthless stuff that if people would have used back in 2006 could have helped them avoid making the biggest financial mistake of their life.
What did interest me and numbers that are certainly worth something with the current beneath the surface things going on are the numbers for the "Seriously Delinquent" Home Loans out there that are 90+ days late. Regardless if a Foreclosure Notice is filed or not (Foreclosure Notices are not automatically filed when somebody stops paying their mortgage), the number of homeowners NOT paying their mortgage is pretty darn accurate with the credit reporting bureaus.
Top 10 States with the Highest Percentage of Home Loans 90+ days late
- Florida = 16.2%
- Nevada = 11.8%
- New Jersey = 11.2%
- Illinois = 8.8%
- New York = 8.2%
- Maryland = 8.2%
- Connecticut = 7.4%
- Rhode Island = 7.4%
- Mississippi = 7.1%
- Maine = 7.1%
You'll notice there are a lot of states in this top 10 list that you don't hear about too much in the Foreclosure filing notices.
And then of course you have Florida and Nevada which have been the poster children of the foreclosure fiasco since it started. (Where's Arizona on that list?)
Every state has their own Foreclosure Process that the Banks have to follow that COULD give you a different picture then what's really happening with those "Foreclosure Notice" filing reports.
Nevada and specifically Las Vegas used to dominate the percentage of homes with foreclosure notices but as of recently has dropped out of the top 5 primarily due to Nevada Assembly Bill 284 that went into effect on 10/01/11. The number of foreclosure notices filed on Las Vegas Homes for 2012 compared to the previous four years was decimated but Nevada is still #2 when it comes to the percentage of delinquent home loans.
What's going on with other states is more appropriate for real estate agents licensed in those states to comment on.
Corelogic® chart showing the top 25 states with the highest percentage of home loans 90+ days late
Big Improvements for States that Cleared out Foreclosures, No Improvements for States that kicked the Can down the road
The black lines in the chart above are the high for the % of home loans 90+ days delinquent since 2000. Red dots are the current % numbers as of August of 2012. You can see that Nevada, California and Louisiana have improved from the home values are going to crash to zero days. Notice a state that used to compete with Nevada for the top spot, Arizona is not even in the Top 25. (Losers!... Lol) If that's not a case for get out of the way for a true real estate recovery, I don't know what is.
I mean.. geez, you go from the top 10 to not even in the top 25 for a number that TRULY shows how many homeowners are in distress. Pretty remarkable if you ask me that only 5.2% of home loans in Arizona are 90+ days as of August. (I would certainly have a lot of confidence purchasing a home in Arizona right now and I truly hate to state that because Las Vegas does compete with Phoenix for people escaping their crazy states going BK.)
As for the rest of the states that have shown no improvement since the foreclosure fiasco started... enjoy the conspiracy theories. I certainly do thanks to Nevada Legislators that concocted up Nevada AB 284.
Just keep in mind that there's much more involved then Banks just waiting to dump homes on the market until after the election.
Enjoy tonight's Presidential Debate and take a drink every time you hear "housing" or "mortgage".
Paul Francis, Realtor®
Prudential Americana Group, Realtors®
Las Vegas Real Estate