Intrade "Investors" Pick Obama

By
Real Estate Agent with Keller Williams Shore Properties 1005238

The users who make up the polling/sampling body of prediction-making website Intrade are saying Barack Obama has a 64% chance of winning 2012’s presidential race. Conversely, Mitt Romney’s odds of being this nation’s 45th president are 36%. And given the site’s past success with picking presidents, those numbers should not be dismissed.

The site’s bettors not only correctly predicted George Bush would be re-elected in 2004, the group even properly predicted which candidate would win each state (and subsequently how it would cast its electoral college vote). In 2008, Intrade’s bettors correctly predicted Barack Obama would be victorious; they picked wrong on the voting outcome for two states — Missouri and Indiana, each with 11 electoral votes, were flipped in the run-up to the election — and the final electoral vote count was off by just 1 (due to Nebraska splitting its votes for the first time in history).

http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/

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Comments (27)

Jay Markanich
Jay Markanich Real Estate Inspections, LLC - Bristow, VA
Home Inspector - servicing all Northern Virginia

These guys have not been wrong since 1980.

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university

Romney 330 electoral votes.  Their angle is that people vote their pocketbooks.

Oct 26, 2012 12:18 AM
Yolanda Hoversten
Self Employed - O'Fallon, IL
Referrals for O’Fallon, IL & the Metro East

Did you place your bet on 0bama, Karl? :)

 

Oct 26, 2012 01:12 AM
Karl Hess
Keller Williams Shore Properties - Barnegat, NJ
on The Jersey Shore

Yolanda, no way!!!  I've been to Atlantic City twice in the last few months (one to see The Eagles) and while I was there for hours I didn't place one bet...I'm not that interested in 'betting' per se.

Actually Jay, the CU professors have changed thier methodology for this election. But, here's another professor from American University:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/08/30/never-wrong-pundit-picks-obama-to-win-in-2012

Oct 26, 2012 01:57 AM
Jay Markanich
Jay Markanich Real Estate Inspections, LLC - Bristow, VA
Home Inspector - servicing all Northern Virginia

That was the Colorado people's most recent prediction.  Still, people vote their pocket books.

Oct 26, 2012 02:02 AM
William Feela
WHISPERING PINES REALTY - North Branch, MN
Realtor, Whispering Pines Realty 651-674-5999 No.

I know of 3 obama supporters that changed their vote after the last debate.  They were sure they had made up their minds before any of the debates had started.

Oct 26, 2012 10:38 AM
Mitchell J Hall
Manhattan, NY
Lic Associate RE Broker - Manhattan & Brooklyn

When a fool speaks only the foolish listen = Rush, Donald Trump, John Sonunu, Sarah Palin, Glen Beck et al.

When an honorable man speaks rational thinking sane people listen = Colin Powell.

 

Oct 26, 2012 11:50 PM
Yolanda Hoversten
Self Employed - O'Fallon, IL
Referrals for O’Fallon, IL & the Metro East

It will be interesting to see if Intrade changes the odds two or three days before November 6. I'll check Silver's if he adjusts his partisan projection on the 11th hour.

Jay, I read the professors' prediction also, who called it before the debates.

 

Oct 27, 2012 11:56 AM
Karl Hess
Keller Williams Shore Properties - Barnegat, NJ
on The Jersey Shore

Sliver's projections change every day as he uses all available information...and if he was so partisan why would project the Republican landslide in 2010?

Oct 27, 2012 11:03 PM
Yolanda Hoversten
Self Employed - O'Fallon, IL
Referrals for O’Fallon, IL & the Metro East
Karl - His projection in the US House in 2010 was a net gain of 55 but actual was 63 Republicans. He also was off the mark on the 2010 UK General Election. He was accurate in 2008 and gained credibility since. But I think it's premature to say he's consistently accurate. As far as being partisan, he blogged under an assumed name on the uber-liberal Daily Kos and now he's with the not-so-uber-but-still liberal rag, The New York Times. We'll find out soon enough how accurate he is, won't we?
Oct 28, 2012 08:25 AM
Broker Nick
South Florida Real Estate & Development, Inc. - Coconut Creek, FL
Broker Nick Relocation Broker Service

It is such a joke that liberals hold on to such pollsters who against all data say such idiotic stuff and liberals hold on to "hope" - Obama has lost momentum since the first debate and Romney consistently is above 50% for the last two weeks - no other candidate in history has lost an election this close with such numbers.

Gallup just stated that Obama's job approval has fallen for three straight days by seven percentage points...hello

Obama has lost over 19% support of women who elected him in 2008 - he can't win without that women vote.

Believe the lies of MSNBC and NY Times but when Romney wins who will you blame this time?

Racism perhaps - that has always been the excuse of the liberal losers - not the fact that America has rejected the liberal policies of this President as they did in 2010

Oct 28, 2012 08:31 AM
Broker Nick
South Florida Real Estate & Development, Inc. - Coconut Creek, FL
Broker Nick Relocation Broker Service

Yeah that's Right - Congrats on a job well done - Featured In Silent Majority!

Oct 28, 2012 08:34 AM
Karl Hess
Keller Williams Shore Properties - Barnegat, NJ
on The Jersey Shore

Yolanda, Nate Silver was pretty damn accurate, but just to clarify. He isn't saying Obama WILL win, he's saying the stats, polling data, prior voting trends, etc that Obama has a 70% CHANCE of winning....but as with sports, we've seen 'upsets' before.  And those percentages will change as new polling and information comes in.

Nicholas. It's a different world. National polls don't matter all that much. This election will be decided in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. So what could obviously happen is a replay of 2000 where the winner of the electoral college could lose the popular vote; in this case Obama captures the electoral vote since he will probably win blue states by a smaller margin that Romney will win red states.  Blog on this issue to come! 

Oct 28, 2012 11:50 PM
Broker Nick
South Florida Real Estate & Development, Inc. - Coconut Creek, FL
Broker Nick Relocation Broker Service

Karl - That is never going to happen - The liberal Newspaper Sun Sentinel in Broward County Florida just endorsed Mitt Romney which endorsed Obama in 2008. Obama is losing major endorsements and yet you still think Obama will win the electoral votes? What planet are you on now? Probably the same planet Obama was on when he is blaming George Bush for all the troubles when he and the dems controlled the senate for the last two years of Bush's term. 

Oct 29, 2012 12:14 AM
Yolanda Hoversten
Self Employed - O'Fallon, IL
Referrals for O’Fallon, IL & the Metro East
Karl - Politics aside, my thoughts and prayers are with you & your family and everyone on Sandy's path. Be safe.
Oct 29, 2012 01:15 AM
Rich Quigley
Chicago, IL

Nate Silver, number cruncher for the New York Times, was showing the odds of Obama winning at over 70% today. He's been pretty consistently right in the past, but we'll see on election day. I certainly hope that the election goes to Obama.

Oct 29, 2012 03:13 AM
Broker Nick
South Florida Real Estate & Development, Inc. - Coconut Creek, FL
Broker Nick Relocation Broker Service

Mr. Silver will never be believed again after this election. That is another fact, but liberals are willing to fall on their swords for this President.

Oct 29, 2012 03:30 AM
Yolanda Hoversten
Self Employed - O'Fallon, IL
Referrals for O’Fallon, IL & the Metro East

It was rumored that Silver was fed Obama's inside polling in 2008. He was  wrong on the General Election in the UK. In his old life as a baseball statistician, he wrote Derek Jeter off as finished, but we know what happened there.

Silver hedged his 2012 presidential election projection recently, as he could be entirely right or entirely wrong... that sounds like a 50-50 chance of being correct or wrong. I guess that could be considered accurate, if one were just a regular man on the street, but not from an exalted accurate statistician.

Oct 30, 2012 05:14 AM
Satar Naghshineh
Satar - Amiri Property and Financial Services Corp. - Irvine, CA

It's just common sense that Obama will win. Obama supporters who are disappointed with him are not going to vote for Romney. Those of us who are from the Tea Party will most likely not vote for Romney.

Also, the best polls on outcomes are from places where money is wagered. This website is very accurate:

http://sports.betfair.com/?mi=21311313&ex=1&origin=POD

 

Oct 30, 2012 07:18 AM
Karl Hess
Keller Williams Shore Properties - Barnegat, NJ
on The Jersey Shore

Well, I guess Nate Sliver's FiveThirtyEight blog and Intrade was correct. Silver's projections were based on statistics, math and logic, which is why it is/was so accurate.

Nov 06, 2012 10:00 PM
Mona Gersky
MoonDancer Realty, Dillsboro,NC - Sylva, NC
GRI,IMSD-Taking the mystery out of real estate.

Karl, this post was fascinating to read...well...post election.  There is nothing wrong with doing all you can for the candidate you support, flying in the face of what the opposition is telling you and in particular what their pollsters are telling them.  Maybe that is naive and maybe hope is the brainchild of the naive...but I don't think so. I'm sorry the whole election process was so acrimonious but time to move on.  And "hope" the next election is more truthful and friendlier.

Nov 22, 2012 08:26 PM