The Post Election Real Estate Myth In Northern Virginia

Real Estate Agent with Integrity Real Estate Group

Often people who live outside of the DC area ask about how the local real estate market changes after a Presidental election.  The myth is that after an election there should be an influx of new folks and of course an equal number of people leaving.

Certainly if every Presidential appointee and every member of congress along with their staff changed hands it would be close to 27,000 jobs. Most members of congress are maintaining a residence in their home district and can't afford to buy a home in the DC or surrounding areas.  Junior staffers don't make enough money to live on their own or are in shared rentals in the area and often senior staffers have been in the area for sometime.


You can look at the chart of sold listings in Northern Virginia for recent elections and see very little change after an election. In 2010 when there was the biggest change in Congress the total sales increase for the entire year was less than 1%.  For the most part elections don't play into home sale changes in the area. 

Though elections don't play a role the change of housing inventory in our area they can play a huge role in the housing market in general.  This fall Congress needs to determine whether they will extend the tax break on short sales which is scheduled to end on December 31, 2012.  If the tax break is not extended we could see more underwater mortgage holders deciding foreclosure is the better option.  Time to get in touch with your elected officials to let them know your support for extending the tax credit. 

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If you are interested in learning more about the Northern Virginia Real Estate market including Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax and Prince William Counties give Cindy Jones and Integrity Real Estate Group a call at 703-346-2213.

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  1. Gabe Sanders 11/11/2012 07:49 PM
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Joan Whitebook
BHG The Masiello Group - Nashua, NH
Consumer Focused Real Estate Services

I am sure that NAR is on top of this issue.  It iwll be interesting to see what happens.

Nov 10, 2012 09:07 AM #7
Mitchell J Hall
Compass - Manhattan, NY
Lic Associate RE Broker - Manhattan & Brooklyn

Great interesting post Cindy. I thought when Clinton became President all of Arkansas moved to the DC area,-)

Nov 10, 2012 09:07 AM #8
Paula McDonald ~ GRI
Beam & Branch Realty - Granbury, TX
Granbury, TX 936-203-0279

Yes, we need this extended big time.  I hope they listen.

Nov 10, 2012 09:12 AM #9
Fred Griffin Tallahassee Real Estate
Fred Griffin Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Licensed Florida Real Estate Broker

Here in Tallahassee, the Capital of Florida, we used to see a significant increase in sales when a New Governor came into office.

In this day of career politicians and entrenched bureaucrats, not so much anymore.

Nov 10, 2012 09:38 AM #10
Mike Cooper, GRI
Cornerstone Business Group Inc - Winchester, VA
Your Neighborhood Real Estate Sales Pro

That's very interesting, Cindy.  It's good to be reminded about the tax break on short sales. That would be a major hit for underwater homeowners looking for a little relief. 

Nov 10, 2012 09:44 AM #11
Rob Thomas
Prestige Homes of The Tri Cities, Inc. CALL....423-341-6954 - Bristol, TN
Bristol TN-VA & Tri Cities Agent, ABR, GRI, e-Pro
Cindy ....great info ....congrats on the feature! I know no matter what takes place will be very successful! Have a great night!
Nov 10, 2012 10:27 AM #12
Melissa Zavala
Broadpoint Properties - Escondido, CA
Broker, Escondido Real Estate, San Diego County
What an interesting comparison. It does not seem as if there is a huge correlation, as you state.
Nov 10, 2012 11:15 AM #13
Jon Karlen
Finish Line Realty - Shelbyville & Louisville Ky Real Estate - Shelbyville, KY
Louisville & Shelbyville Kentucky real estate

Great chart.  There are always a lot of myths/predictions about elections before and after.  Vast majority simply aren't true.

Nov 10, 2012 11:21 AM #14
Brenda Mullen
RE/MAX Access - Schertz, TX
Your San Antonio TX Real Estate Agent!!

You bring up a very good point about the tax breaks on short important to keep that going or else it's going to be foreclosure madness everywhere.  Great report Cindy!

Nov 10, 2012 12:00 PM #15
Jordon Wheeler
The Jordon Wheeler Group - Fairburn, GA
J W Group Real Estate Sales and Service

HI Cindy,

I was just discussing this very idea with a client a few days ago.  Surely there must be great opportunity when the whole administration changes - NOT!  Thank you for bringing this information to light and clarifying my understanding of DC real estate.  Yes it's time to call Johnny Isaackson and talk about the tax break for short sales.  Best of success to you this year!

Nov 10, 2012 12:26 PM #16
Tammie White, Broker
Franklin Homes Realty LLC - Franklin, TN
Franklin TN Homes for Sale

Let's hope that short sale tax break is extended. I can't imagine what the aftermath will be in terms of foreclosures if it's not.

Nov 10, 2012 01:27 PM #17
Bob & Leilani Souza
Souza Realty 916.408.5500 - Roseville, CA
Greater Sacramento Area Homes, Land & Investments

Cindy, I never gave this much thought at all, but I'm not surprised to learn that not much housing sales take place after an election.


Nov 10, 2012 05:09 PM #18
Jay Markanich
Jay Markanich Real Estate Inspections, LLC - Bristow, VA
Home Inspector - servicing all Northern Virginia

You speak of tax breaks and end with a tax credit.  What is the tax credit for?  When was it instituted?

Nov 10, 2012 08:09 PM #19
Jackie Connelly-Fornuff
Douglas Elliman Real Estate in Babylon NY - Babylon, NY
"Moving at The Speed of YOU!"

We all need this tax credit to be extended or else we will have more foreclosures on the market again. Great chart and explanation Cindy!

Nov 10, 2012 08:15 PM #20
Ginny Gorman
RI Real Estate Services ~ 401-529-7849~ RI Waterfront Real Estate - North Kingstown, RI
Homes for Sale in Southern RI and beyond

Cindy, a great comparison to share and yes, I have been loud and speakeasy about the 2007 Mortgage Forgiveness Act to does need to be extended.

Nov 10, 2012 08:54 PM #21
Carla Muss-Jacobs, RETIRED
RETIRED / State License is Inactive - Portland, OR

To be honest, I did wonder about the flux, if any, but more so in the Washington D.C. area.  And yes, this isn't over yet so the extension would be helpful to a lot of home owners.

Nov 11, 2012 04:17 AM #22
Al & Peggy Cunningham, Brokers
RE/MAX West Realty Inc., Brokerage - Brampton, ON
Our Family Wants To Help Your Family!

Glad to see you received a well deserved gold star for this Cindy. Yes, people should contact their elected officials quickly. 

Nov 11, 2012 07:04 AM #24
William Johnson
Retired - La Jolla, CA
Retired Real Estate Professional
Hi Cindy, It will be interesting which side yells UNCLE first. And it may be that neither side does. As for the real estate issue, one would naturally think there would be increases all the time becuse of any change in the elected representatives. It is also interesting how many people that are not elected but are employed in an ever expanding government.
Nov 11, 2012 09:20 AM #25
Christine Donovan
Donovan Blatt Realty - Costa Mesa, CA
Broker/Attorney 714-319-9751 DRE01267479 - Costa M

Cindy - I would have thought that there would be more of a change in an election year too.

Nov 11, 2012 01:51 PM #26
Wallace S. Gibson, CPM
Gibson Management Group, Ltd. - Charlottesville, VA

One interesting fact will be how GOES and who STAYS from the current Administration....HIGHER UP Administration officials are usually RENTING from other HIGHER UP officials who are in servce elsewhere and few have actually bought homes in the area because they want to return to their old home.....great area for HIGH-END RENTAL HOMES

Nov 11, 2012 07:52 PM #27
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