Overall, November continued the feel good market conditions that we have seen through much of 2012.The market continues to show signs of recovery and competition for many properties stays strong. Here are some details about market stats for the Phoenix metro area. Sales in November did fall 3% to 6,810. But historically, with the exception of 2001 and 2010, the decline in sales from October to November is typical of every year in the past decade. November sales were also lower by 4.7% than the same month in 2011. This also follows the pattern for all of 2012 which showed declines in year over year figures for every month. These decreases also follow similar year over year declines in inventory.
Total inventory rose November to 23,232. This represents a 2.3% increase from October. We have seen an increase in total inventory for four out of the last five months. A low of 19, 857 reached in June. November’s inventory figure represents a 17% increase from that low for 2012.
Average days on market fell to 64 days and the months supply of inventory increased slightly to 3.41, both indicators of a sellers market. I have noticed in some sub-markets that the sales price to listing price ratio has dropped slightly. I attribute this to overzealous pricing by lenders and flippers who see the increases we have been experiencing and are pushing the envelope with list prices. Appraisals and reality have kept those in check and are shown in slightly lower sales pricing ratio.
Distressed Sales have been an inportant segment of the market for the past few years. Distressed sale are comprised of lender owned sales plus short sale. Distressed sale as a percentage of total sales fell again in November to 36.1%. This trend line has moved steadily downward from its high of 74.1% in September 2010. This month lender owned Sales of 876 accounted for 12.9% of total Sales, while short sales of 1,583 accounted for 23.2% of total Sales. The ratio of short Sales to lender owned is approximately 2 to 1, indicating stronger lender appetite for negotiating a work out through short sale, rather than taking a property back through foreclosure. The looming expiration of the Mortgage Debt Relief Act may drastically change those numbers in the coming months.
The steady increases in pricing may be leveling off and it will be interesting to see how our normally strong winter period reflects this.
Adam Tarr PC
Citywide Real Estate