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Experts Predict Housing Recovery in 2013

By
Real Estate Technology with http://www.medicalandspaconsulting.com

 

There is independent data that suggests that the housing recovery is in well underway.  Veros Real Estate Solutions  (VRES) is a real estate data firm and it recently announced  its recent analyses of the twelve month period ending December 1, 2012 as well as its forecast for the 12-month period ending December 1, 2013. VRES indicates that “the national real estate market has hit bottom and is now in a full recovery”.  Veros Report. The analysis and forecast factor in 975 counties, 335 metro areas, and 13,586 zip codes. The statistics are updated on a quarterly basis. Veros predicts that the nation’s top 100 metro areas can “expect 1.2 percent appreciation over the next 12 months.”

Zillow recently mirrored the same conclusion as VRES.  Perhaps this is a start of a Happy New Year for all of those in the real estate profession. Zillow actually went so far as to predict that home prices would increase by 3.1 percent in 2013 and reported that overall, 2012 prices would end with a 4.6 percent gain. Zillow report The numbers were apparently based upon a survey of 105 “economists and industry experts.” The chief economist of Zillow reported that “an organic recovery in the housing market really took hold in the latter half of 2012” and predicted that the market is “well-positioned for continued growth, albeit slightly slower, in 2013 and beyond.”

There certainly is a lot of optimism in the real estate industry as we enter 2013. Forecasts of recovery together with some favorable legislation and court rulings may signify a positive 2013 and beyond for a lot of us. If lending can loosen up or non-conventional funding can make some gains in 2013, this could be a really good market for the industry. I view real estate as a three-legged stool: buyers, seller and funding. It appears that we have at least two of the legs of the stool!!! Happy New Year…a healthy and Happy New year to everyone.

 

Paddy Deighan J.D. Ph.D

http://www.homesavers.pro

Comments(73)

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Gary Frimann, CRS, GRI, SRES
Eagle Ridge Realty / Signature Homes & Estates - Gilroy, CA
REALTOR and Broker, Notary

I think one of the most important things for the houseing recovery--A positive outlook by consumers-- is certainly on the upswing as far as what I am experiencing and witnessing.  It has been a long time...

Jan 05, 2013 03:07 PM
Kimo Jarrett
Cyber Properties - Huntington Beach, CA
Pro Lifestyle Solutions

I'm optimistic about my personal production, however, I don't share their optimism about a full and robust real estate recovery for 2013. Furthermore, those economists and other sources in your post, such as Zillow failed to forecast the depression we experienced just a few years ago, so why would you rely upon their forecasts?

The perception or reality isn't about having a positive attitude or feeling good, it's the money supply factor and when that finally occurs, interest rates will soar and consumers will really feel the pain. We can't control the printing of money, so earn as much as you can now and hang onto your cash because the day of reckoning is coming unless our political leaders begin to change our excessive government spending.  

Jan 05, 2013 03:58 PM
Paddy Deighan MBA JD PhD
http://www.medicalandspaconsulting.com - Vail, CO
Paddy Deighan J.D. Ph.D

Many have written about inventory..there is hope there too....the largest servicers are holding about 3.5 years of shadow inventory and I believe that they will begin to release them as a new round of foreclosures begins (now)

Jan 05, 2013 06:16 PM
Rob Renk
Center Street Lending - McKinney, TX
AE | Fast Fix/Flip Loans for Residential Investors

This is certainly great news.  I know some areas have rebounded since they have bottomed and it appears to be spreading nationwide.  This will be good news for all.

Jan 05, 2013 09:05 PM
TERRY DRISCOLL
MAINE HOME REALTY - Bath, ME
REALTOR - Buy or Sell in Any Season!

Based on 2012, I have every reason to be optimistic for 2013, but realize that, while we've avoided going over the fiscal cliff, the economy still has challenges ahead and politics is not helping.  Sellers need to realize that property values aren't going to return to 2006 levels overnight.  Be positive, be realistic, and stay on top of your local market!

Jan 05, 2013 09:11 PM
Gayle Rich-Boxman Fishhawk Lake Real Estate
John L Scott Market Center - Birkenfeld, OR
"Your Local Expert!" 503-739-3843

Paddy, I have felt this for some time now. We are, inch-by-inch creeping forward. Good to be optimistic (I always am), but with a pinch of realism as well. Recovery, albeit slow, is STILL RECOVERY. Just like a broken arm that's healing.

I have been doing real estate only since the downturn--so it will be a pleasantry to deal in a market that is in recovery. I embrace it with open arms!!

Jan 05, 2013 09:51 PM
David Popoff
DMK Real Estate - Darien, CT
Realtor®,SRS, Green ~ Fairfield County, Ct

WSJ had a great article on REITs outperforming the market, a good sign for 2013.

http://activerain.com/blogsview/3572062/real-estate-stocks-outperformed-2012-market-

 

 

Jan 06, 2013 03:00 AM
Tina Gleisner
Home Tips for Women - Portsmouth, NH
Home Tips for Women

They list top & bottom 5 (all northeast) locations but there's not supporting info so who really knows.

Jan 06, 2013 03:37 AM
Carol Christiansen NYS Licensed Real Estate Broker
Cafe Realty - Katonah, NY
Live with the 3 Es – Energy – Enthusiasm – Empathy

A good sign for 2013....

Jan 06, 2013 03:45 AM
Brenda Van Fossen
Dawson Ford Garbee & Co., Realtors, Lynchburg VA - Lynchburg, VA

I follow the House Price Index published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.  Nationwide, the index showed that house prices rose 1.1 percent from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2012 and 4.0 percent from the third quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of 2012.   Fourth quarter figures for 2012 are not out yet.  Lynchburg VA, where I am located, saw a 1.19 percent increase from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2012 (close to the national figure) but only a 0.4 percent increase from the third quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of 2012.  We were behind the curve--we were later going into the slowdown and will be later coming out of it.

Jan 06, 2013 12:49 PM
S W
Centerville, KS

I am hearing the same thing through other outlets, Great News! We shall see what is to come of 2013

Jan 06, 2013 09:46 PM
Evelyn Kennedy
Alain Pinel Realtors - Alameda, CA
Alameda, Real Estate, Alameda, CA

Paddy:

We are certainly experiencing a resurgence in our market here.  Hope it keeps up in 2013 and I hope more inventory comes on the market.  

Jan 07, 2013 08:07 AM
Alan Grizzle
Chestatee Real Estate - Dahlonega, GA
Full Time Realtor, Lifelong Resident of Dahlonega

We need to see good news about housing on the news more often. It seems to me that whatever message is repeated over and over becomes the mindset of the general public, me included. People that could buy will not because they think prices are going down.

If all we see is them talking about how bad it is and predicting things to get worse it will. If all we see is that things are getting better they will. People that can buy will because they think prices are on the way up.

Jan 07, 2013 08:27 AM
Paddy Deighan MBA JD PhD
http://www.medicalandspaconsulting.com - Vail, CO
Paddy Deighan J.D. Ph.D

Alan, I agree 100%...if we think posibteively the perception of the public will be that the market is recovering and this will cause the market to recover!!!

Jan 07, 2013 08:43 AM
Paddy Deighan MBA JD PhD
http://www.medicalandspaconsulting.com - Vail, CO
Paddy Deighan J.D. Ph.D

Evelyn it is a small world...as I read you r somment, i was speaking to an agent abtou a short sale in your area and she suggested that you r,arket is "improving"

Jan 07, 2013 08:45 AM
Thomas McCombs
Century 21 HomeStar - Akron, OH

I predicted the recovery as long ago as January of 2012, and pinpointed the beginnning of it as mid June. Of course I will remind everyone about my accurate prediction every chance I get.

But on those occasions when I have gotten it wrong I kind of hope they will forget and so far, they have!  LOL

This particular recovery was easy to spot. It took longer to get here, but like always in the past, it did get here.

Real estate is local, YMMV.

Jan 08, 2013 06:01 AM
Dorte Engel
RE/MAX Leading Edge - Bowie, MD
ABC - Annapolis, Bowie, Crofton & rest of Maryland

Dear Paddy,

This looks like at least a start for all those under water home owners. If they keep paying down, as they have for the past 4-5 years and prices start coming up a little, maybe a few more can afford to sell & move on with their life, freeing up inventory for all those eager buyers out there.

Jan 08, 2013 06:54 AM
Steve Higgins
RE/MAX Kelowna - Kelowna, BC

Hi Paddy,

I sure hope those experts are right! The faster your market recovers the faster our market will.

Jan 12, 2013 08:47 AM
Steve Davis
Davis Coastal Properties - Carlsbad, CA
Carlsbad CA

Experts have been yearly predicting the housing recovery - since 2009. People will still be buying and selling recovery or not.

Jan 13, 2013 11:22 PM
Gene Riemenschneider
Home Point Real Estate - Brentwood, CA
Turning Houses into Homes

We are in recovery out here.  The problem is an inventory shortage.

Jan 17, 2013 12:43 AM