4th Quarter 2012 Market Trends for LOUDOUN COUNTY

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Real Estate Agent with Keller Williams Realty | Northern Virginia | 703.635.0388 0225 189802

FOURTH QUARTER 2012 MARKET TRENDS REPORT: LOUDOUN COUNTY, VA HOUSING MARKET GAINED IN PRICING & SALES VOLUME IN 2012   

Submitted by cwindle@dullesa... on Jan 10, 2013

Fourth Quarter 2012 Market Trends Report: Loudoun County, VA Housing Market Gained in Pricing & Sales Volume in 2012 - Pricing and Sales Gains Seen in Q4; Low Inventory Persists. Click here for the printable report.

The following analysis of the Loudoun County, Virginia housing market has been prepared for the Dulles Area Association of REALTORS® based on analysis of MRIS multiple listing data by RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC (RBI).

Overview

The Loudoun County housing market ended 2012 much the same way it started the year – with continued gains in both home sale prices and volume. 2012 marked the third consecutive year with a higher median sale price than the previous year, though the percent increase dropped from above 7 percent the past two years to a more moderate 2.6 percent in 2012.  The median sale price in Q4-2012 was 8.6 percent higher than Q4-2011, the highest year-over-year increase in the last nine quarters. The number of sales in Q4 2012 was up 29.1 percent over Q4 2011 while the total sales for the year were 12.2 percent higher than the 2011 total. A shortage of inventory remained an issue as the 1,409 new listings added in Q4 2012 was the second lowest quarterly total since 2000 (the lowest quarterly total was Q4 2011 with only 1,349). Partially resulting from the low supply versus increased demand, the average Days on Market (DOM) for homes sold in 2012 was 59 days, 10 days fewer than the 69-day average in 2011. Sellers’ negotiating position improved from the prior year, with the Average Sold Price to Original List Price ratio rising from 96.1% to 97.0%.

Key Trends

4th Quarter

•             Prices. The median sale price in Q4 2012 was $391,092, representing an 8.6 percent increase over Q4 2011.  This marks the largest year-over-year gain for any quarter since Q3 2010.

•             Sales. The 1,372 sales in Q4 represent a 29.1 percent increase over the 1,028 sales in Q3 2011. Every quarter of 2012 saw an increase in sales relative to 2011, and this 29.1 percent increase marks the largest yearly gain for any quarter since Q3 2003!

•             Sales to List Ratio. With inventory remaining low relative to demand, the average discount buyer’s received against the original list price was 3 percent or less for the third straight quarter, with the 97.0% Avg Sold Price to Original List Price Ratio besting the 5-Year Q4 average of 96.1% 

•             Time on Market. Half of the homes sold in the quarter were on the market less than a month, with a Median Days on Market (DOM) of 29 days representing a 13-day improvement over the Q3 2011 median of 42 days.

2012 Year-End

•             Pricing. The median sale price in 2012 was $390,000, 2.6 percent higher than the 2011 median of 379,995. The 2012 median represents a 16.4 percent improvement from the 2009 bottom, but remains 19.6 percent below the Loudoun peak of $485,000 back in 2005.

•             Sales. There were 601 more homes sold in 2012 than in 2011, with the 5,543 closed sales representing an increase of 12.2 percent. This not only was the highest number of yearly sales since 2006, but the highest year-over-year percent increase since 2004.  

•             Sales to List Ratio. The average percent of original list price seller’s received at sale was 97.0% in 2012, up from 96.1% in 2011 and the 5-year average of 95.8%. Townhouses received the highest percent of original list price on average at 97.9% while detached properties averaged 96.3%.

•             Time on Market. The Average Days on Market (DOM) for homes sold in 2012 was 59 days and the Median DOM, a more reliable stat because it is less impacted by the outliers that sit on the market for months or even years, was only 26 days. This is 10 days lower than the Median DOM of 36 days in 2011 and is well below the 7-year average of 42 days. The Median DOM for attached properties in 2012 was 21 days (down from 29 days in 2011) and detached properties was 33 days (down from 44 days in 2011).

RBI Quarterly Home Sales Index  -- Dulles Area Association of REALTORS®  Q4 2012

 

Copyright© 2013 RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC.  All Rights Reserved. Data Source:  MRIS. Statistics calculated January 4, 2013.

RBI Yearly Home Sales Index -- Dulles Area Association of REALTORS® (image 1)

Copyright© 2013 RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Data Source: MRIS. Statistics calculated January 4, 2013.

Analysis by Housing Segment – Q4-2012

Detached Housing

•             The median sale price for detached properties for Q4 was $550,000, representing an increase of 4.8 percent compared to last quarter and an increase of 10 percent from Q4 2011.

•             The average days-on-market (DOM) for detached properties sold in Q4 was 77 days, 2 days lower than the 5-year Q4 average of 79 days. Half of the homes sold in Q4 were on the market for 35 days or less, 18 days lower than the 53-day median DOM of Q4 2011.

•             The 655 closed sales in Q4 represent a 28.9 percent increase over Q4-2011; while the 750 actively listed detached properties to end the quarter represent a 15.9 percent decrease vs. this time last year.

•             The average percent of original list price that detached property sellers received at sale was 96.4% in Q4, more than a point higher than the 5-year Q4 average of 95.2%.

Attached Housing – Townhouses

•             The median sale price for townhome properties for Q4 was $350,000, representing no change compared to last quarter, but an increase of 9.4 percent from Q4 2011.

•             The average DOM for townhomes sold in Q4 was 43 days, 9 days below the 5-year Q4 average of 52 days. The median DOM was only 25 days, 13 days lower than the 38-day median of Q4-2011.

•             509 townhomes were sold in Q4, 141 more than sold in Q4 2011 (+38%). The 193 actively listed townhomes to end the quarter represent a 31 percent decrease vs. the same time last year.

•             The increase in demand coupled with a shortage in supply kept the Average Sold Price to Original List Price consistent with the 5-year average at 97.6%.

Attached Housing – Condo / Co-ops

•             The median sale price for condo & co-op properties for Q3 was $222,346, representing a decrease of 1.2 percent compared to last quarter, but an increase of 7.9 percent from Q4 2011.

•             The average DOM for units sold in Q4 was 54 days, 10 days below the 5-year Q4 average of 64 days. The median DOM was 22 days, 8 days below the Q4-2011 level.

•             The 163 closed sales in Q4 were 11 more than the 152 sold in Q4-2011; while the 86 actively listed condo & co-op properties to end the quarter represent a 5.4 percent decrease vs. this time last year.

•             The average percent of original list price that sellers received at sale was 97.1% in Q4, one point higher than the 5-year average level of 96.1%. 

RBI Quarterly Housing Metrics – Dulles Area Association of REALTORS®   Q4-2012

Copyright© 2013 RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC.  All Rights Reserved. Data Source:  MRIS. Statistics calculated January 4, 2013.

RBI Year End Housing Metrics – Dulles Area Association of REALTORS® 

Copyright© 2013 RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC.  All Rights Reserved. Data Source:  MRIS. Statistics calculated January 4, 2013.

Distressed Property Segment

4th Quarter Distressed Property Summary

Only 59 of the 1,327 sales in Q4 were foreclosures, representing just 4.4 percent of all sales. This was down from 5.6 percent in Q3 and 9.3 percent in Q4 2011. The 127 completed short sales were down 19.6 percent year-over-year and represented 9.6 percent of all sales, down from the 15.4 percent share in Q4-2011.  Non-distressed sales were up a significant 47.2 percent year-over-year to 1,141 for the quarter, up from 775 in Q4 2011.

Distressed sales (short sales + foreclosures), had a median sale price of $327,450, up 13.7 percent from the $288,000 median in Q4 2011. Foreclosures saw the largest year-over-year jump in median sale price, up 18.2 percent to $325,000. The median sale price for short sales was up 13.0 percent over Q4 2011 to $330,000. Non-distressed properties, on the other hand, saw a nominal 2.6 percent year-over-year increase, with a median sale price of $400,285. At $391,000, the median sale price for all properties (distressed + non-distressed) represented an 8.6 percent year-over-year increase for Q4, gaining over $30,000 on the $360,000 median in Q4-2011.

 

Copyright© 2013 RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC.  All Rights Reserved.

Data Source:  MRIS. Statistics calculated January 4, 2013.

 

Copyright© 2013 RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC.  All Rights Reserved.

Data Source:  MRIS. Statistics calculated January 4, 2013.

Year-End Distressed Property Summary

The 5,543 homes sold in 2012 represented a 12.2 percent increase over the 4,942 homes sold in 2011, the largest year-over-year increase since 2004. This was the highest sales level in Loudoun since 2006. On top of this positive indicator, the distressed composition of sold inventory continues to diminish each year. The number of distressed sales has had an annual decline of more than 20 percent each of the past two years, with 978 distressed sales in 2012 representing a 21.5 percent drop from the 1,246 distressed sales in 2011 (and the 2011 total representing a 22.3 percent drop from the 1,604 distressed sales in 2010). Distressed properties accounted for 31.7 percent of all sales in 2010, then 25.2 percent of sales in 2011 and only 17.6 percent of homes sold in 2012. Foreclosures have dropped from a 9.5 percent share of sales in 2011 to a 6.7 percent share in 2012, the share of transactions that were short sales dropped from 15.8 percent in 2011 to 11.0 percent in 2012.

While the inventory of distressed sales continued to decline, the median price for the distressed segments rose significantly from 2011 to 2012. The median price for short sales increased from $285,000 to $319,000 (+11.9%) and the median price for foreclosures jumped from $274,450 in 2011 to $320,000 in 2012 (+16.6%). These increases, along with the gains made in the non-distressed composition of sold inventory, resulted in the year-over-year median sale price increase of 2.6 percent across all homes. This net gain occurred despite a nominal decline of 1.0 percent in the median sale price for non-distressed properties (from $411,000 in 2011 to $407,000 in 2012).

 

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