Cracked Glass Found in Home Prices Crystal Ball

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Mann & Sons, Inc. REALTORS®

Who doesn’t want to know what will happen in the future? That’s a very small group, for sure, since good planning is a cornerstone of good management — for households as well as for organizations of every kind.

Rehoboth Beach Home Prices

So, whenever Coastal Delaware homeowners see headlines like “Home Prices Up ‘Unsustainable’ 5.9% in 2012,” above  a MarketWatch article that explains that price growth is expected to slow, they probably would like to gauge the reliability of the forecasters.

In this case, MarketWatch is part of the relatively stalwart Wall Street Journal, so credibility goes up. But closer examination finds that the author is just reporting information real estate site Zillow compiled. Zillow is indeed an internet behemoth but can local homeowners rely on its national predictions to gauge Rehoboth Beach home prices?

My own take is to find out how well has this source done in the past…

Looking back a very short while ago (to December 26 of last year), I find that Zillow’s survey of 100 economists and forecasters “said they expect home prices to increase in full-year 2012 by 4.6%.”

Hey! Hold it! This is only February, but now the same outfit is telling us that the actual home prices gain last year was 5.9%. Doing a little arithmetic, it seems that the 100 economists and forecasters, faced with the task of estimating home prices for a year that had just a week left, were off by 28%! (They also acknowledge that the same panel had predicted the rise would be 2.3% only three months earlier).

So I guess it’s not that surprising that they feel home price rises like last year’s are going to be ‘unsustainable’ in 2013. Apparently the actual home prices were unsustainable last year, too!

Since real estate and home prices in Rehoboth Beach are inherently local, it takes on-the-ground expertise to keep up with them.  If you’d like to know where your home falls in today’s market, contact Mann & Sons now to schedule an initial consultation.  I think we’re getting ready for an interesting spring season and we’d love to help you explore your options!

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Rainmaker
102,015
Ray Stockwell
ZipperAgent - Boston, MA
Director of Marketing

Bill I thought you might like this link

 

http://www.zillow.com/advice-thread/How-accurate-are-zillow-estimates-for-refinancing/439800/

 

It too talks about the inaccuracy of Zwillow

Feb 18, 2013 06:53 PM #1
Rainmaker
1,988,787
Andrew Mooers | 207.532.6573
MOOERS REALTY - Houlton, ME
Northern Maine Real Estate-Aroostook County Broker

Your own market, your corner of the world like a weather forecast is unique to your GPS coordinates that Santa if you are good dials in. Predictions, whoa. So many and used in play ground voices to make everyone in your area think what the national predictors say applies. It does not. Real estate is local, every market is different. And that is where you and I come in .... to let the truth be known. Living in today and being flexible to make the most of whatever market. To see the market that there always is. 

Feb 18, 2013 07:08 PM #2
Rainer
214,107
Richard Burge Realty/ Burge Homes
Richard Burge Realty/Burge Homes - Conway, SC
Broker in Charge/Owner

My crystal ball has a crack in it also.  I would have thought the market would have be back stronger than ever by now.

Feb 18, 2013 08:00 PM #3
Rainmaker
791,221
Carol Zingone
Berkshire Hathaway Home Services Florida Network Realty - Jacksonville Beach, FL
Global Realtor in Jax Beach, FL - ABR, CRS, CIPS
Interesting to note the disrepancy....
Feb 18, 2013 08:33 PM #4
Rainer
14,841
Bill Mann
Mann & Sons, Inc. REALTORS® - Rehoboth Beach, DE

Whenever my conversations turn to the real estate websites, I advise folks to stay away from the big sites...a few are so overwhelmed with advertising its difficult to find the listing information. And Zillow & its Zestimate...a joke. And then they turn around and blame the local association for the inaccuracy because the boards won't sell closed data to Zillow.

I think the ultimate goal for them is like the Autotrader model...they'll scoop up & qualify the lead then send out for a 25%+ referral fee.

Feb 19, 2013 12:37 AM #5
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Rainer
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Bill Mann

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