Mortgage Rate Update 3-7-13: Trends Projections & Today's Best Rates

Mortgage and Lending with AmeriFirst Financial Inc, San Diego, CA NMLS 259027

March 07, 2013 02:21 AM

Jobless claims came in lower than expected, and an improving outlook for the labor market ahead of tomorrow's big Employment Report has continued to hurt Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) prices thus far this morning.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Profesionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back nearly 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired. To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze!

Jason E. Gordon - Mortgage Rate Update - www.jasongordon.net

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Thursday 3-7-2013 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Wednesday with an IMPROVEMENT to pricing (and will typically warrant a pricing adjustment by most Lenders). Wednesday's IMPROVEMENT netted a change of 6 basis points (bps).

(hint: upward activity is good, downward activity is bad)

The following chart shows a summary of today's activity:

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

Today's Lowest Interest Rates - San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist - Jason E Gordon - www.ApprovingSD.com

Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry):

FNMA 30-Year:

2.5 Coupon: Open 98.8750 Change -0.2969

3.0 Coupon: Open 102.9844 Change -0.1719

3.5 Coupon: Open 105.4219 Change -0.1094

Treasuries:

5 Year: Open 99.6250 Change -0.1094 Yield 0.8270

10 Year: Open 100.2969 Change -0.2500 Yield 1.9670

30 Year: Open 99.0000 Change -0.4513 Yield 3.1770

Key Economic Data

EUR/USD: Open 1.3079 Change 0.0116

40GBP/USD: Open 1.5059 Change 0.0042

USD/JPY: Open 94.480 Change 0.420

Oil: Open 91.20

Key Economic Data:

Challenger layoffs for Feb: Actual 55.356, Last 40.430.

International Trade mm for Jan: Actual -44.45, Consensus -42.6, Last 38.5. Revised -38.14.

Unemployment

Initial jobless claims: Actual 340k, Consensus 355k, Last 344k, Revised 347k.

Jobless claims 4-week avg: Actual 348.75k, Last 355,00k, Revised 355.75k.

Continued jobless claims: Actual 3.094m, Consensus 3.110m, Last 3.074m, Revised 3.091m.

Productivity Revised for Q4: Actual -1.9, Consensus -1.6, Last -2.0.

Labor cost for Q4: Actual 4.6, Consensus 4.3., Last 4.5.

12:00: Consumer Credit for Jan: Consensus 14.5bln, Last 14.59bln.

Advice:

Treasuries dropped after initial claims for jobless benefits in the U.S. unexpectedly fell to a six-week low, showing further improvement in the labor market and spurring appetite for higher-yielding assets. 10-year notes pared earlier gains as the European Central Bank left interest rates on hold as it gauges how big a threat Italy poses to the economic recovery. Americas trade deficit widened more than forecast in January, data showed. Benchmark yields climbed the most in three weeks yesterday as ADP Research Institute said U.S. companies added more jobs than economists forecast, spurring bets Labor Department labor data tomorrow will show hiring increased. The markets are paying more attention to the claims numbers than the trade numbers, said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist in New York at Mizuho Securities USA Inc., one of 21 primary dealers that deal directly with the Federal Reserve. Were in the range and will drift to the upper end of the range going into the nonfarm numbers tomorrow. The 10-year note yield increased four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 1.98 percent, the highest level since Feb. 25, at 8:43 a.m. New York time, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. First-time jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 7,000 to 340,000 in the week ended March 2, the lowest since the period ended Jan. 19, according to data today from the Labor Department in Washington. The median forecast of 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an increase to 355,000. The four-week average dropped to a five-year low. The trade deficit grew by 16.5 percent to $44.4 billion from $38.1 billion in December that was the smallest in three years, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington.

My position on MBS stays Long.

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

Here is the link to today's video:

http://www.ratewatch.com/ratewatchnow.html

Ouch! Another Gap down opening. Market is in a big hurry to get down to the bottom of this channel. Depending on unemployment numbers, hopefully we get a bounce back at least to close the gap. While I have been short term bearish and did call the top of this move, I also think this drop is overdone and would expect at least a partial recovery. Overall...we are still heading down to 102.00ish in my opinion

Trusted Industry Advisor

San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist Jason E Gordon

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) and Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.jasongordon.net or www.ApprovingSD.com or more information.

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