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San Francisco Home Values - March 2013 Update

Real Estate Agent with Paragon Real Estate Group


What Costs How Much Where in San Francisco

San Francisco Home Values by Neighborhood & Bedroom Count

The March 2013 Paragon Market Report



We've just completed our semiannual review of SF house and condo values by average and median prices, average size and average dollar per square foot for sales occurring September 1, 2012 - February 28, 2013, as reported to MLS. The maps contain median sales price data only, while the tables include the full range of value statistics. (The tables are easier to read, but they're not as colorful.) If a price is followed by a "k" it references thousands of dollars; if followed by an "m", it signifies millions. Remember that medians and averages are very general statistics. Further down in the newsletter are charts tracking supply and demand dynamics and price appreciation trends for the city's residential real estate market. Statistical definitions can be found at the very bottom. For the smaller images, you'll need to click-to-expand them to really make them decipherable.
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4-Bedroom House Values This is the table for 4-bedroom house sales over the past 6 months. This link goes to the full analysis by property type, neighborhood and bedroom count. Neighborhood, Property Type, Bedrooms

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2-Bedroom Condo Median Price Map A map of median sales prices for 2-bedroom condos around the city. The table in the full analysis provides further statistical measures. Full Analysis
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Trends in Inventory & Sales Volume Sometimes there's nothing like a chart to depict trends. Here one can clearly see the drastic decline in inventory. And this link goes to a chart on Months Supply of Inventory, another statistic of supply and demand: Months Supply of Inventory
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New Listings Coming on Market The quantity of new listings ebbs and flows by season, however even accounting for seasonality, the number of new listings coming on market is much lower than usual. And this link shows the increasing demand since the market recovery really got underway in 2012: Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
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Median Price Trends by Month Monthly price data often fluctuates due to a variety factors. For example, median and average prices almost always drop in January since the higher end of the market usually checks out for the holidays: Values haven't changed; the demographic of buyers and available inventory changed. However, the clear upward trajectory of prices over the past year is clear in both median and average sales prices. Average Price Trends
The MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. If there were 3 sales, at $1, $2 and $10, the median price would be $2. If there were 4 sales at $2, $2, $5 and $10, the median would be $3.50. Median sales price may be affected by seasonal trends, and by changes in inventory or buying trends, as well as by changes in value. AVERAGE DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT is based upon the home's interior living space and does not include garages, storage, unfinished attics and basements; rooms and apartments built without permit; decks, patios or yards. These figures are typically derived from appraisals or tax records, but can be unreliable, measured in different ways, or unreported altogether: thus consider square footage and $/sq.ft. figures to be very general approximations. Generally speaking, about 60-80% of listings report square footage, and dollar per square foot statistics are based solely on those listings. All things being equal, a house will have a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (because of land value), a condo will have a higher $/sq.ft. than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC's will be higher than a multi-unit building's (quality of use). All things being equal, a smaller home will have a higher $/sq.ft. than a larger one. The highest dollar per square foot values in San Francisco are typically found in upper floor condos in prestige buildings with utterly spectacular views. The AVERAGE SIZE of homes of the same bedroom count may vary widely by neighborhood: for example, the average size of a 4-bedroom house in Pacific Heights is much larger than one in Noe Valley; and the average of a Marina 2-bedroom condo is larger than one in South Beach. Besides the affluence factor, the era and style of construction often play large roles in these disparities. Some neighborhoods are well known for having additional ROOMS BUILT WITHOUT PERMIT, such as the classic 1940's Sunset house with "bedrooms" and baths built out behind the garage. These additions often add value, but being unpermitted are not reflected in $/sq.ft. figures. Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in general statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, views, amenities, outdoor space, "bonus" rooms, parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so forth. Thus, how these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown.
These statistics are generalities, subject to fluctuations due to a variety of reasons (besides changes in value). Average figures in particular may be distorted by a few sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially where the sample size is small. Generally speaking, the fewer the sales, the less reliable the statistics. Where abnormal "outlier" sales were identified that significantly distorted the statistics, these were deleted from the calculations. Sales not reported to MLS are not included in this analysis.All information herein is derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and is subject to revision. © Paragon Real Estate Group, March 2013



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Interested in learning more about San Francisco real estate?

Contact me!

Simone Koga | Paragon Real Estate Group 1400 Van Ness Ave. | San Francisco, CA 94109 415.706.1586 | DRE#01897985 www.simonekoga.com

James Daniel Jr.
Keller Williams Realty-City View - San Antonio, TX
Before You Buy or Sell Talk To James 210-560-3755

Great information Simone.  I especially love the map graphic at the beginning.  I need to try to figure out how I can use that here in Phoenix.  

Mar 13, 2013 03:50 PM
Simone Koga
Paragon Real Estate Group - San Francisco, CA

Thanks James- I'm a big believer in visual graphics aiding consumers.  There's a lot of data and we do what we can to make it as accessible as possible.

Mar 13, 2013 03:55 PM
John M. Scott
BRE # 01442690, Scott Keys Properties - San Francisco, CA
Broker / Owner San Francisco Bay Area

I love the map Simone. Makes it so easy to understand. Thanks!

Apr 27, 2013 09:21 AM