The bond and stock markets are closed today for Good Friday. I apologize for my error that the bond market would be open today; that was what we were told---obviously incorrect. Mae Culpa.
Although markets are closed today, Feb personal income and spending were reported; income was up 1.1% while spending increased 0.7%. Estimates were for income to be +0.9% and spending +0.6%; January income was down 3.6% and spending up just 0.2%. Better income and spending, if markets were open, would likely support stock indexes and add slight pressure in the bond and mortgage markets.
At 9:55 this morning the final monthly U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index was reported much stronger than expected. The index at 78.6 was expected at 72.5, the previous reading was 71.8. The increase in sentiment contradicts the Mar consumer confidence index released on Tuesday this week; that index saw a big decline, from 68.0 to 59.7 on estimates it would be at 66.9. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about consumer attitudes.
The two reports this morning, if markets were open, would likely have improved the stock market and likely have the bond and mortgage markets trading weaker.
The bond market, although closed, remains technically overbought based on all momentum oscillators. The likelihood of some retracement is high. Next week is employment week with March data to be reported on Friday.
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