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Recessions from 1962-2007, world wide

By
Real Estate Agent with Remax House of Real Estate

The Economic Research Center studies recessions.

Between 1962 and 2007 the following countries have been in recession x% of the time:

  • Germany - 37%
  • Japan - 18%
  • Italy - 18%
  • US - 13%
  • Britain - 10%
  • Canada - 8%

What is a recession?A recession occurs when an economy grows at less than 0 ... or negative ... over two quarters.

Germany has been in a recession 37% of the time over the last 45 years.

Some believe that when the US sneezes, Canada follows. Not true. The US has been in a recession  13% of the time - while Canada has only been in a recession 8% of the time.

My friends, this will pass. The US will climb from the recession that they may ... or may not ... be already in. Canada may slow along side the US ... but Alberta's economy is way too strong ...  for us to slide into a recession.

Along with my colleagues at Real Estate Investment Network, I beleive Calgary, Alberta prices will increase in 2008 about 12%. (While this is small growth compared to 36% in 2006 and 18% in 2007 ... it is super-charged. 5-8% appreciation is all we should ever hope for.)

Posted by

Bryon Howard

ReMax House of Real Estate

Calgary, AB

For a free maket evaluation visit http://www.homeinsight.com/Widget/default.asp?ACJ2B351Q3YN

 

Comments (4)

John Petrella
Local Hawaii Real Estate - Hilo, HI

Aloha Bryon Howard,

Interesting stats.  Canada must be doing something right! 

Here on the Big Island of Hawaii our current market is alive and healthy (since the beginning of the year 96 homes have sold and 94 parcels have sold). We are working at less volume and lower prices.
In my opinion, we peaked around April or May of 2005. Two major forces brought about this peak and subsequent downward trend. Boomers and easy money. In review the boomer years are from 1946 to 1964. The easy money seem to have started around 2001 or 2002.


The leading edge that lead to this peak was caused by the boomer generation when they discovered the relatively low prices we had. They started a buying frenzy back in 2004. They had easy money from what I
call warm body or 98.6 degree loans, or from equity they had from pulled out of their over appraised homes in the eastern 48. ("warm body or "98.6 degrees" seemed to be the only qualifications needed to obtain a loan from any lender). When the easy money dried up the demand went down. When demand went down, volume went down taking prices down.


What makes Hawaii now very attractive to Canadians, Australians, Europeans, Koreans, Japanese and now the Chinese are: our home and raw land prices are down about 34% AND the US dollar is down by about 23%. In other words when we compare the prices of Big Island homes and raw land in April of 2004 to our current prices we now at a discount of about 57%!


We are now seeing much more interest from Canadians. Most seem to be purchasing raw land. Some purchase a vacation small home. Others actually purchase land and then build a home.


By the way, the Big Island is home to a major university and several of the leading telescopes in the world. Researches work in Astrophysics, Astronomy, Marine Biology, Volcanology and Agriculture. We have two
international Airports. We export scores of verities of orchids, 12 kinds of antheriums, real vanilla, papayas and other agricultural produces. Because of Capt Cook England had a very heavy influence on Hawaii. Our culture includes the original Hawaiian Merrie Monarch Festival, a Paniolo cowboy culture that rivals the cowboys on the main land, a Japanese Culture, a Pilipino Culture, a Chinese Culture, and a Portuguese Culture. Transplants like me come from all over the USA and world. We have black sand, green sand, and white sand beaches. Our land starts at sea level and goes to about 4200 Meters or 13,796 ft. It is said we have all but one of the climates in the world here.

Today we have snow on our mountains.

Kind Regards,

John Petrella, REALTOR®
ABR®, GRI, Broker/Owner

Direct: 808.640.3953
Local@LocalHawaiiRealEstate.com

Local Hawaii Real Estate
Honesty • Integrity • Commitment

159 Keawe St., Suite 1
Hilo, HI  96720

Local Hawaii Real Estate

REALTOR® is a federally registered collective membership mark which identifies a real estate professional who is Member of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.



 

Feb 06, 2008 08:28 PM
Marg Scheben
RE/MAX four seasons realty limited - Collingwood, ON
Edey - Collingwood, Ontario
Bryon, those are really interesting stats.  We need that type of affirmation now and then to counteract the doom and gloom of the media.  Do you have a link to that study?  Thanks for this post.
Feb 07, 2008 05:28 AM
Shannon Aldrich
Keller Williams Coastal Realty - Rye, NH
NH & Maine Real Estate Seacoast
Thank you - I believe that in my area we have a stable market with properties lasting 5-6 months. However, January was quite a shock with a 30% month over month drop in units sold. However until I see at least three months of this I am inclined to chalk it up to the snowiest January on record and the presidential primaries coming through the state. Up until last month we had been stable and even showing signs of pulling out.
Feb 07, 2008 05:40 AM
Bryon Howard
Remax House of Real Estate - Calgary, AB

I will try to take the time to find a link to this study. In the meantime, google "Economic Research Center - Recession".

I got the info at a recent meeting of REIN (Real Estate Investment Network). It was a quoted source ... but I misplaced it.

bryon

Feb 07, 2008 05:42 PM