A review of the first quarter of 2013 MLS real estate statistics in St. John’s and Mount Pearl Newfoundland indicates an interesting trend. During the period there were a total of 903 homes listed for sale on the MLS and just 202 homes sold. Those sold represent 22.3% of those listed during the period.
During the same period of 2012, the market finished with fewer home listed. There were 857 listed and there were 426 homes sold. Those sold in Q1 of 2012 represent 49.7% of those listed during the period.
On the surface this indicates a significant drop in demand has occurred at the beginning of 2013. Yet, when we take a closer look at the average prices for both of these periods, we see a counter intuitive trend is indicated.
In 2012 the average sale price for the first quarter was $299,128 but in 2013 the average price has risen to $308,764. We see a lower number of sales but an increase in the average sale price.
Less than one quarter of those who tried to sell their homes in the first three months of 2013 were successful. Nearly half of those who listed during the same period of 2012 were successful in selling. However, those who were successful in selling in Q1 of 2013 on average netted more for their homes than those who were successful in selling during Q1 of 2012.
I would suggest we have a good indication that prices are still firm in St. John’s and Mount Pearl in spite of the apparent drop in demand. However, if the number of sales does not pick up over the next 3 to 6 months, we would predict that sellers will begin to compete for buyers by reducing their prices. This would lead to at least a modest retreat in prices from the current levels.
However, if the demand experienced in 2012 has just been delayed this year and we will see it show up in Q2 of 2013, I have no doubt that prices will remain strong during the quarter. Indeed they may continue the upward trend.
We will have to wait and see just exactly what happens but if you are planning to sell this year, Q2 is undoubtedly the time to be putting your house up for sale. Prices are still strong giving you the best opportunity to maximize your return of value if you are successful in finding a buyer during this coming quarter.
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