Mortgage Newsletter- April 15th, 2012 Dana Bain Premiere Mortgage 978-422-2311

By
Mortgage and Lending with Premiere Mortgage Services Inc. MLO 18693

http://www.bainmortgage.com/MortgageMarketWeekInReview

 

Newsletter-April 15th, 2013
Provided by
Dana Bain & Robin Dunbar Bain

Dana Bain
Premiere Mortgage Services

www.BainMortgage.com

11 Malvern Hill Road
Sterling, MA 01564
Phone: (978) 422-2311
Fax: (978) 422-2313
E-Mail: dana@bainmortgage.com

 
 
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Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week lower, which made rates worse.Rates rose the first half of the week on profit taking following the MBS rally the prior week.The Treasury auctions generally disappointed with weak foreign demand.Weekly jobless claims came in @ 346k versus the expected 365k mark. This was a reversal of the rate friendly ADP and employment reports released at the beginning of the month.Retail sales fell 0.4% in March, sharply lower than economists’ expectations.That data helped rates recover somewhat on Friday.

Mortgage rates finished the week about 1/4 of a discount point higher.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator

Release
Date & Time

Consensus
Estimate


Analysis

Consumer Price Index

Tuesday, April 16,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.3%,
Core up 0.1%

Important.A measure of inflation at the consumer level.Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.
Housing Starts

Tuesday, April 16,
8:30 am, et

857k Important.A measure of housing sector strength.Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Industrial Production

Tuesday, April 16,
9:15 am, et

Up 0.2% Important.A measure of manufacturing sector strength.A lower than expected increase may lead to lower rates.
Capacity Utilization

Tuesday, April 16,
9:15 am, et

78.9% Important.A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary.Weaker figure may lead to lower rates.
Fed “Beige Book”

Wednesday, April 17,
2:00 pm, et

None Important.This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US.Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims

Thursday, April 18,
8:30 am, et

347k Important.An indication of employment.Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Philadelphia Fed Survey

Thursday, April 18,
10:00 am, et

1.8 Moderately important.A survey of business conditions in the Northeast.Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Leading Economic Indicators

Thursday, April 18,
10:00 am, et

Up 0.2% Important.An indication of future economic activity.A smaller increase may lead to lower rates.
5Y TIPS Auction

Thursday, April 18,
1:15 pm, et

None Important.Notes will be auctioned.Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index is widely accepted as the most important measure of inflation.The CPI is a measure of prices at the consumer level for a fixed basket of goods and services.The National Statistics Office and the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics of the Department of Agriculture collect price data for the computation of the CPI. Since it is an index number, it compares the level of prices to a base period.By comparing the level of the index at two different points in time, analysts can determine how much prices have risen in that period.Unlike other measures of inflation, which only factor domestically produced goods; the CPI takes into account imported goods as well.This is important due to the ever-increasing reliance of the US economy upon imported goods.Analysts primarily focus on the core rate of the CPI which factors out the more volatile food and energy prices.Oil prices are a concern from an inflation perspective.Record debt levels continue to weigh heavily upon the financial markets as well.Inflation, real or perceived, erodes the value of fixed income securities such as mortgage bonds.Rates have a better chance of falling with lower than expected CPI figures.



 
 
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MORTGAGE MARKET IN REVIEW Newsletter-April 15th, 2013

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