I was happy to read this report from BofA
June 5, 2013
Last Week in Review
Consumers are feeling more confident about the direction in which our economy is moving. Read on for details and what they mean for home loan rates.
Table Source: Mortgage Success Source
Consumer Confidence, which measures how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are with respect to the economy in the near future, hit a five-year high in May, coming in at 76.2. The Consumer Sentiment Index, a similar measure, also came in above expectations for May.
There was also good news on the housing front, as the Case Shiller 20-city Home Price Index rose 10.9 percent year-over-year. This was above expectations and the best annual gain in seven years. In addition, the second estimate for first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 2.4 percent. By comparison, the final reading of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2012 was 0.4 percent. GDP is an important measure of productivity growth and a key indicator of economic strength.
In inflation news, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, shows that inflation remains tame. In fact, the year-over-year core PCE (which excludes volatile food and energy measurements) is running at 1.1 percent, well below the Fed's upper end target of 2 percent and just above the all-time low.
What does all of this mean for home loan rates? Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of stocks and into bonds, helping bonds and home loan rates (which are tied to mortgage bonds) improve. Strong economic news often has the opposite result. With several strong economic reports released last week, bonds and home loan rates felt the impact.
However, helping bonds and home loan rates is the fact that inflation remains non-existent, as inflation reduces the value of fixed investments like bonds. An important question moving forward is: Will the Fed continue its bond purchase program known as Quantitative Easing? While low inflation gives the Fed reasons to do so, there are growing opinions that the program should come to an end.
Home loan rates remain near historic lows, meaning now is a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance.
Forecast for the week
The second half of the week heats up with important news on the labor front.
- Wednesday will be a full day with Productivity, ISM Services Index and theFed’s Beige Book.
- As usual, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported Thursday. Last week, Initial Jobless Claims came in above expectation at 354,000. The data remains in a range that is consistent with just modest job growth.
- On Friday, we end the week with the often market-moving Jobs Report for May, which includes Non-Farm Payrolls and theUnemployment Rate.
As you can see in the chart below, the second estimate for first quarter GDP rose by 2.4 percent, a jump from the last quarter of 2012.
Chart: Gross Domestic Product
Table Source: Mortgage Success Source
Tips for Better Productivity
3 Things to Put On Your “Not To Do” List
Working harder isn’t always the answer to growing business. Counter-intuitive as it may seem, sometimes doing less can increase your productivity and reduce your stress, a powerful combination for anyone who works just about anywhere. Creating a “Not To Do” list can help if you want to grow your business, or show your employer you deserve that promotion.
Here are four things you can not do starting today to give you the margin you need to think and act more clearly in business and life:
Smartphone distractions. If you’re constantly checking Facebook, answering or originating random text messages, or have social media account alerts turned on, chances are you won’t be as productive as you could be.
Just say no. There is a big difference between being busy and being productive. Want to know where you’re just busy? Keep track of everything you do every 30 minutes, every day, for one week. Then take all the items that aren’t moving you toward your goals and stop doing them, delegate them to someone else, or hire someone to do them for you. What will you do with all that extra time? Concentrate only on activities and processes that make money or move you ahead.
Skipping lunch. Though it can be tempting to always work through lunch and breaks to get just one more thing done, taking a short break can often help you to re-energize and re-focus allowing you to do more productive work.
The key to more productivity is not more work. it’s more focus. Creating your “Not To Do” List will help reset your priorities, refresh your morale and could even remake your career.
In the news this week (June 3 - 7, 2013)
Table Source: Mortgage Success Source
