WHAT IS THE “BUBBLE”?

By
Real Estate Agent with Century 21 Olde Tyme

In Webster's dictionary  the third definition of the word bubble is; "3. any idea or scheme that is plausible at first but quickly shows itself to be flimsy or worthless."

I like most people think of a bubble as being a pretty film of soap that with irradiance floats through the air reflecting all that it passes with a rainbow of color.  It floats up on the air currents until it pops.

Now with either or both of those definitions I am having a problem relating it to the Real Estate market we in some states are experiencing. 

The market hasn't gone away. It hasn't floated up on some economical heat current, and it sure isn't rose colored anymore.

I think using the term "the bubble has popped" is misleading to the clients in the most negative way.

It is true that the market has changed. For most of us not for the better, but we know it will change again in just a short while.  How it will change is for the future to tell us.  As I see it there are several ways it will change.

 

  1. The sellers will realize that instead of pricing their homes a little above the comp rate they may have to go a little below the comps.  That is if they want it to be sold in a timely manner.
  2. Because of this; the comps will change and will reflect the true market value of the homes being sold.  i.e. 900 sq ft home selling for $500,000. may come down to $300,000. (just an example).
  3. Agents will have to market themselves differently.
  4. Agents will have to approach the education of their listing clients with the explanation of what the market is doing.  Gone are the days of just putting any price on the property in question and sitting back to handle the bidding war.

 

Once these things are in place we will see a comfortable realistic market until the next time it starts......to change again.

I know some of you will disagree with me and I would like to hear your take on the "bubble" in the market.

Roberta "Dove" Lee

Century 21 Olde Tyme, Norco, CA

 

Comments (9)

Ryan Hukill - Edmond
ShowMeOKC Real Estate Pros of KW Elite - Edmond, OK
Realtor, Team Lead
I tend to agree with you on this, Roberta. I don't see a crisis as some would have us believe. I don't see the comparisons of the 80s that so many are touting right now. However, if foreclosures continue to climb, that could certainly have a drastically negative effect on the national market. However, at this time, I simply see an adjustment period, a much needed adjustment period. As always, I'm having troulbe finding my crystal ball so I have to go off my instinct and my assessment of the current market. Only time will tell.
Jan 23, 2007 08:32 AM
Bob Sloop, Consultant, Indianapolis, IN
RS Mortgage Consulting - Indianapolis, IN
I think you have valid points.  I see things happening in Indiana however that suggests our prices of homes still declining due to the amount of foreclosure rate within the community.  Brand new sub divisions having homes foreclosed on does not help the situation.  I would watch the foreclosure stats in your area closely and see what happens, this year has to be better than the last two.  Good luck, enjoyed your post.
Jan 23, 2007 11:15 AM
Roberta Lee
Century 21 Olde Tyme - Norco, CA
Norco Corona Riversid Homes For Sale

Ryan: I agree with what you have said. What worries me is that I believe in this year 2007 we will see the foreclosures increase.  In my opinion that is due in a large part to the over use and abuse of the stated income loans that were handed out like candy at a child's birthday party.  It didn't concern the "shark" in the waters loan officers that in fact the client never could or would be able to make the payments for that particular loan.  Now what is the market faced with?  Yep! Foreclosures.  I have heard the arguments that if you can't afford it don't buy it.  OK  I'll go along with that for now, however that having been said, that was yesterday and this is a new day and what the industry is faced with is a glut of foreclosures on the market.

Golly, I thought that the crystal ball was given with the license!  I didn't get mine so I guess we will have to just muddle through together.  Thanks for the comments.

Bob: There is a builder that builds in three western states.  This builder has suspended building new subdivisions for now, however he is buying up the land that other builders had planed to build on.  He is going to sit on those tracts of land until the market stabilizes and then build.  This builder has weathered many economic storms in the Real Estate market.  Although he may not be as good as that crystal ball that Ryan has, I think I will keep an eye on what he is doing.  Thank you for your comments. 

Have a wonderful and prosperous day.

Roberta "Dove" Lee

Century 21 Olde Tyme, Norco, CA

Jan 23, 2007 02:01 PM
Nick M.
Certified Residential Appraiser- West Palm Beach Real Estate - West Palm Beach, FL
Realtor-Appraiser in West Palm-South Florida Real Estate Appraiser
Florida real estate appraiserHI Roberta..   are you sure you're not an appraiser? ok, ok.. it makes sense to me. I dont think there is a bubble, but a 'correction'. ok, so i used someone else's word to make me look smarter. :)  We experienced a big investor 'push' in my area. I saw too many markets pushed artificially by investors not playing nice,.. you know straw buyers, money back under the table..all kinds of not-so-fun stuff. I declined a lot of appraisals just from the intial searches and personal knowledge of the bad boys.  Our market peaked, IMHO, nov-dec of 05.. things are finally settling down, and more purchase orders on the appriasal side indicate a shift.  we will see.   take care Roberta..  BTW, is Dove a nickname or your real name.   can we call you something with Dove in it? hhmmm  I'll be back!   nick-the-appraiser
Jan 24, 2007 10:28 AM
Doug Beaver
Century 21 Olde Tyme - Corona, CA
Corona Norco Eastvale Riverside Homes

Bubble Why I thought that thang done burst and we are all unemployed ...........

Just kidding, Great article Roberta the market is adjusting and needs to adjusts. We as Realtors now need to work for a living......

Jan 25, 2007 07:14 AM
Roberta Lee
Century 21 Olde Tyme - Norco, CA
Norco Corona Riversid Homes For Sale

Nick,

Feel free to call me Dove, all my friends do.

Yes, we had the same problem here in Norco.  People rushing in to buy what they thought would make a great "flipping investment."  However as in your area by the end of 2005 the market was cooling off some and now these individuals are stuck.  "They can't really lease them because the leasing rent won't allow the fare so they can't even make the mortgage payment.  Of course the next logical step will be either a short sell or foreclosure.  So sorry to see that.

Dove :)

Jan 25, 2007 03:03 PM
Brian Brady
San Diego VA Home Loans/858-777-9751 - San Diego, CA
858-777-9751

I know some of you will disagree with me

Not at all, Roberta.  You nailed this one 

Jan 25, 2007 03:58 PM
Roberta Lee
Century 21 Olde Tyme - Norco, CA
Norco Corona Riversid Homes For Sale

Brian,

Thank you for the support.  Some times you wonder if your on target or way off base.  Your response helps. :) Have a great day and may you find the real buyers and the educated sellers. :)

Roberta "Dove" Lee

Century 21 Olde Tyme, Norco, CA

Jan 25, 2007 04:09 PM
Margaret Rome Baltimore 410-530-2400
HomeRome Realty 410-530-2400 - Pikesville, MD
Sell Your Home With Margaret Rome

   Roberta, I think of the bubble in multiples, like the froth on chocolate milk.                                     There will always be areas that "pop"!

 

www.HomeRome.com

Baltimore,Md

                    

Jan 26, 2007 01:17 AM

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