Here's a general premise that is usually a decent guide in most cases
Positive economic activity is not good for interest rates
if you want them to stay put, or you want them to go down in most cases a strong or improving economy will not get you there.
Sometimes we have outside activities which have the desired influence regardless of the strength or lack thereof of economic activity.
for example;
if the FED puts $85 billion a month into the bond market to keep rates down that's probably going to have it's desired effect.
BUT, when the market gets concerned that they may cut back or discontinue QE or bond purchases it may react before the actual event takes place.
you just saw that happen.
Today I saw the following headline in CNNMoney.com
"Business hiring picks up
"businesses added 188,000 jobs in June, according to the ADP National Employment Report, up from 134,000 jobs added in May. That was the strongest pace of hiring since February. Economists were expecting only 150,000 jobs in the month, according to briefing.com."
hang on to these words
higher than expected
the financial sector and construction were sighted as the biggest gainers.
that's not surprising to me.
now let me make the point that job numbers are often recalculated at a later date, but we have to go on what we've got.
so will this data put further pressure on rate increases or not?
i vote yes.
pretty simple concepts, and no it's not that easy, but tell me
what do you think?
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