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How The Mortgage Interest Rate Spike Will Slow The Market

By
Real Estate Agent with Joe Manausa Real Estate 8508880888

Our latest year over year report shows home sales up for eleven consecutive months, marking the longest positive streak in the Tallahassee real estate market in more than twenty years.

Yep, that's right. This streak is longer than any we experienced during the boom of the housing market from 2002 through 2006, and no time in the 1990s did we see year over year home sales up for 11 straight months.

Year Over Year Home Sales Up

The year over year home sales graph below is one important graph that we like to monitor each month. It lets us know how well the market did in the most recent month (June 2013) versus the corresponding month from a year prior (June 2012).

I use this report in a similar fashion as large retailers would use the "Same Store Sales" report to assess growth in a market by a specific store (which for us would be a specific product ... homes for sale in Tallahassee, Florida.

Housing Sales Up

The blue lines in the real estate graph above measure the positive or negative change in year over year home sales each month. At the far right, we see housing sales up 16% in June 2013 over June 2012, and it represents eleven straight months of gains over the prior year.

Home Sales Up With Interest Rates Up

A grave concern about the housing market recovery continuing has emerged as mortgage interest rates have soared 28% in just a few weeks.

With interest rates moving from 3.5% to 4.5%, the average borrower has seen their "cost of money" increase by 28%. I don't know about you, but I would consider it very painful to see my home mortgage payment increase 28%.

This increase in the cost of money is going to reduce home affordability, and it will likely result in a reduced buyer pool for homes in all but the lowest price points.

Thus far in 2013, we've seen home sales up during historic low interest rate opportunities, I just hope it continues as we progress into less favorable (though still incredibly low) mortgage interest rates. 

If you would like to buy a home in Tallahassee and want to know how to maximize your borrowing power, just drop me a note and we can schedule a time to review your personal situation and goals.

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Joe Manausa Real Estate
1934 Dellwood Drive
Tallahassee, FL 32303
(850) 366-8917

Comments(26)

Fernando Herboso - Associate Broker MD, & VA
Maxus Realty Group of Samson Properties - Clarksburg, MD
301-246-0001 Serving Maryland, DC and Northern VA

Joe you are the authority and I never miss your opinion .. most often is used  to validate mine. .

Jul 17, 2013 10:42 PM
Vanessa Saunders
Global Property Systems Real Estate - White Plains, NY
Real Estate | Done Differently

For some buyers, higher rates are a motivator, for others it is curbing their enthusiasm...I'm seeing both reactions right now.

Jul 17, 2013 10:58 PM
Jenn Morson
Metro Referrals - Crofton, MD
Licensed Referral Agent and ASP - Team Woda

Joe - interesting thoughts. I've been wondering what will happen, and of course have no crystal ball, but I appreciate your insights.

Jul 17, 2013 11:37 PM
Doug Rogers
RE/MAX Coastal Properties - Destin, FL
Your Real Estate Resource!

My buyers are feeling the pinch. I have some that were qualified for 165k early this Spring. Sadly, they never got off the fence. Now the lender wants them closer to 150k.

If 165k dollar homes did not catch their eye, 150k is going to be a tough sell.

Jul 17, 2013 11:40 PM
Richie Alan Naggar
people first...then business Ran Right Realty - Riverside, CA
agent & author

The lenders/fed are applying BRAKES to slow down this fast moving economy freight train. It will take time, but the message is clear...

Jul 17, 2013 11:45 PM
Joe Pryor
The Virtual Real Estate Team - Oklahoma City, OK
REALTOR® - Oklahoma Investment Properties

Oklahoma City is a highly affordable market and the rise has caused a spike up in sales. Buyers soemtimes get complacent thinking that the low rates are forever. It has gotten them off the chair, but long term it always has an affect on affordability especially when agents don't advise their sellers that rates affect the listing price.

Jul 18, 2013 12:00 AM
Kevin J. May
Florida Supreme Realty - Hobe Sound, FL
Serving the Treasure & Paradise Coasts of Florida

Joe, I won't project where I think rates will be at the year's end but I concur with your analysis.  Facts are tough to dismantle but we all try see them in the best light. 

Jul 18, 2013 12:17 AM
Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
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Thank you for stopping by and leaving a comment, Scott!

Apr 26, 2021 05:22 AM
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Thank you for stopping by and leaving a comment, Lenn!

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Thank you for stopping by and leaving a comment, Ed & Tracy!

Apr 26, 2021 05:22 AM
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Thank you for stopping by and leaving a comment, Edward!

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Apr 26, 2021 05:22 AM
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Thank you for stopping by and leaving a comment, Tim!

Apr 26, 2021 05:22 AM
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Thank you for stopping by and leaving a comment, Fernando!

Apr 26, 2021 05:23 AM
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Thank you for stopping by and leaving a comment, Vanessa!

Apr 26, 2021 05:23 AM
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Thank you for stopping by and leaving a comment, Jenn!

Apr 26, 2021 05:23 AM
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Thank you for stopping by and leaving a comment, Doug!

Apr 26, 2021 05:23 AM
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Thank you for stopping by and leaving a comment, Richie!

Apr 26, 2021 05:23 AM
Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL
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Thank you for stopping by and leaving a comment, Joe!

Apr 26, 2021 05:23 AM
Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL
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Thank you for stopping by and leaving a comment, Kevin!

Apr 26, 2021 05:23 AM