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Mortgage Rate Update 8-1-13: Trends Projections & Today's Best Rates

By
Mortgage and Lending with CMG Mortgage, San Diego, CA NMLS 259027

Wow, what a crazy last 2 days for mortgage rates! We began Wednesday with a pre-emptive worsening of pricing by 47 bps (in anticipation of the Fed Meeting). By the time the day was over, we improved by 81 bps. Not to be outdone, today was even more eventful. After opening 31 bps worse, we proceeded to worsen an extra 68 bps.  Lenders throughout the country worsened their pricing by roughly 0.375 - 0.500 today as a result.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Profesionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired.  To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

Jason E. Gordon - Mortgage Rate Update - www.jasongordon.net

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Thursday 8-1-2013 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Wednesday with a SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT to pricing.  Wednesday's SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT netted a change of 81 basis points (bps).

(hint: upward activity is good, downward activity is bad)

 Today's Lowest Interest Rates - San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist - Jason E Gordon - www.ApprovingSD.com

The following chart shows the activity thus far for today:

 Today's Lowest Interest Rates - San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist - Jason E Gordon - www.ApprovingSD.com

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):

 Today's Lowest Interest Rates - San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist - Jason E Gordon - www.ApprovingSD.com

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

 Today's Lowest Interest Rates - San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist - Jason E Gordon - www.ApprovingSD.com

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

Today's Lowest Interest Rates - San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist - Jason E Gordon - www.ApprovingSD.com

Market Commentary (Neil Trennery)

FNMA 30-Year:
2.5 Coupon: Open 91.9375 Change -0.4219
3.0 Coupon: Open 96.5781 Change -0.4375
3.5 Coupon: Open 100.4688 Change -0.3906
4.0 Coupon: Open 103.6250 Change -0.3281
 
Treasuries:
5 Year: Open 99.6797 Change -0.2656 Yield 1.4420
10 Year: Open 92.2656 Change -0.5156 Yield 2.6510
30 Year: Open 85.0938 Change -0.9531 Yield 3.7050
 
Key Economic Data
EUR/USD: Open 1.3256 Change -0.0043
GBP/USD: Open 1.5199 Change -0.0007
USD/JPY: Open 98.970 Change 01.130
Oil: Open 107.21
 
Key Economic Data:
Challenger layoffs for Jul: Actual 37.701k, Last 39.372k.
Unemployment
Initial jobless claims: Actual 326, Consensus 345k, Last 343k, revised 345k.
Jobless claims 4-week avg: Actual 345.25k, Last 345.25k, Revised 345.75k.
Continued jobless claims: Actual 2.951m, Consensus 2.994m, Last 2.997m, Revised 3.003m.
Markit Mfg PMI final for Jul: Actual 53.7, Last 53.2.
Construction spending for Jun: Actual -0.6%.Consensus 0.4%, Last 0.5%, revised -1.3%.
ISM for Jul
Manufacturing PMI: Actual 55.4, Consensus 52.0, Last 50.9.
Mfg prices paid: Actual 49.0, Consensus 54.2, Last 52.5.
Mfg employment index: Actual 54.4, Consensus 50.0, Last 48.7.
New orders index: Actual 58.3, Last 51.9.
 
Advice:
Claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level in more than five years, extending swings typical for the month of July. Businesses have been operating with tight workforces as they wait for signs of a sustained pickup in consumer demand. A slowdown in firings might signal that employers are becoming more confident in the recovery and preparing to expand payrolls, which would encourage household spending, the biggest part of the economy.
 
My position on MBS changes to Short.

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

 
The good news is that we did close the gap yesterday, as I expected. The bad news is that drove us to the top of the range, which was met with much resistance and is now driving us back down to the bottom.

Yes, there is some good economic news, but in my opinon not enough to offset the Fed's Dovish comments yesterday. So, Lets call this profit taking and watch what happens as we test the bottom of the range.
 

Trusted Industry Advisor

San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist Jason E Gordon

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) and Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.jasongordon.net or www.ApprovingSD.com or more information.

Click here for daily mortgage interest rate updates and projections for San Diego's best mortgage rates

Roy Kelley
Retired - Gaithersburg, MD

Thanks for sharing your update. Have a most productive month.

Aug 01, 2013 11:41 AM