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What's This I See? Something Positive About Real Estate In The Media?

By Ken Cook

Real Estate Technology with Content, coding, marketing, host.

January 25, 2007 03:52 AM

Ken Cook 2006 Numbers I just ran my numbers from 2006. Not satisfactory. But I got really curious about the Summer months where I normally close 35 to 40 loans and see that July dropped down to only 18 units with only 12 being new purchases. From 28 in May to 12 in July cannot be found in my history. It wasn't the rates, they remained steady. It may have been a little due to advertising because I cut my radio budget in March but look at October and I did 39 units with the same advertising. So I did a little research on news reports.

Wow

It seems that in March FORTUNE had a story that included the words "last dying gasp of the real estate boom". CNN was all over the place about the bursting bubble. Pick just about any media outlet and they were raving about the bursting bubble.

I assign the dismal Summer to media blitzing. December is always slow, January generally launches an exciting Spring.

During those down months I spent hundreds of hours showing people that Atlanta real estate is UNAFFECTED by the so-called "bubble". I showed them a 70 year chart of national and state specific real estate prices and how Georgia has and continues to outpace the nation just slightly.

I TEACH NO PIE IN THE SKY and that's the state I live in. Everyone can do very well in real estate investing by remaining calm, learning how to read the numbers and turning off THE NEWS! Emotions kill real estate investors.

So, here we are in January of 2007. Nine months after CNN: Money reported on "Welcome To The Dead Zone". Today, what do I see?

TOP 10 CITIES: WHERE TO BUY NOW

So what are they and do you agree?

1. Panama City, Florida
2. Vero Beach, Florida
3. Bridgeport, Connecticut
4. Lakeland, Florida
5. McAllen, Texas
6. San Luis Obispo, California
7. Wilmington, North Carolina
8. Manchester, New Hampshire
9. Fort Collins, Colorado
10. Atlanta, Georgia

I am not disagreeing with this report but I do want to remind you that this is the same media outlet that gave us the 19 deadliest cities to invest in back in May of 2006. After lunch I shall blog again. Let me run the numbers and do the charts on the historical data of these 10 choices compared with the same outlet's Dead Zone and Fastest Growing Counties data as well as the best picks from the Dead Zone article and get back to you.

In the mean time, if you are in one of those 10 cities, rejoice! For the pen of the media is upon you!

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John Hruska

Homes Charlotte, LLC - Charlotte, NC

Ken,

Thanks for taking the time to do the homework and sharing with all of us.

Jan 25, 2007 04:06 AM

Steven Holcomb

Keller Williams Realty - Plano, TX

Esq. - BBA, JD, GRI

I read an article from the Wall Street Journal last year that put Dallas and Atlanta as the best potential markets for the future based upon current property values, inventory, and historical appreciation. Sounds like Atlanta is a good place to be right now (thankfully Dallas is in pretty good shape, too).

Steve

Jan 25, 2007 04:21 AM

Leigh Brown

Leigh Brown & Associates, RE/MAX Executive - Charlotte, NC

CEO, Dream Maker - Charlotte, NC

Do you think the politicians grease the palms of the national media to get them to print what's a good and bad market? I'll be interested to see what you dig up historically. It's a numbers game no matter how you shake it-just like buying stocks, you just buy and over time you make money. Trying to catch the highs and lows is a very dangerous game.

Jan 25, 2007 05:35 AM

Anonymous

Mikey

The National Association of Homebuilders disagrees that the media is the driving influence their survey found that pricing & need is the number one influence.

Jan 25, 2007 07:24 AM

Ken Cook

Content, coding, marketing, host. - Marietta, GA

Content Marketer/Creator

Thank you Mikey for sharing that link. Actually I'm writing about my specific area. Still interesting reading and you are correct - the NAH and I disagree.

Jan 25, 2007 07:39 AM

Marko Nedeljkovic

Amerihome - Glen Ellyn, IL

That is an interesting fact, but what is that average annual appreciation of Real Estate in Georgia??? In Illinois, Arizona, Florida, California the home prices have sky rocketed discouraging many buyers.

Jan 25, 2007 10:26 AM

Marko - around 5% and it has been steady, steady, steady. I will be blogging with some more graphs, charts and data not only on Georgia but other parts of the nation. Stay informed! What a Peach.

Jan 25, 2007 10:48 AM

John Novak

Keller Williams Realty The Marketplace - Las Vegas, NV

Henderson, Las Vegas and Summerlin Real Estate

I just saw a headline today on MSN -- 'Housing market shows signs of life.' Finally something a little positive. I've heard many areas in Colorado still have room to grow, also southern Idaho and New Mexico.

Jan 25, 2007 03:03 PM

Christy Powers

Keller Williams Coastal Area Partners - Pooler, GA

Pooler, Savannah Real Estate Agent

I've been trying CPR on the market....may be it will work...lol

Jan 25, 2007 03:12 PM

Lloyd Barry

First Carolina Home Equity - Concord, NC

Being originally from CT and having visited Bridgeport recently.......I don't believe it..

Manchester NH.........nice and calm....

Jan 25, 2007 03:15 PM

Larry Walker

1. Panama City, Florida
2. Vero Beach, Florida

I'll weigh in here with a disagree on the first two. How can it be a good time to buy when inventory is triple what it was 3 years ago? I would expect that waiting to buy in either of these markets would be much more prudent than charging in and buying because someone has called a bottom. If this does happen to be the bottom, I don't expect enough action to push prices back up much in the near future. By the way, apparently they are calling this bottom in complete contradiction to the data. Maybe the crystal ball approach feels better than using actual stats.

Disclaimer: I have been known to be wrong before and I sincerely hope I'm wrong here, but, the evidence looks overwhelming against a rebound this year.

Jan 25, 2007 11:44 PM

#11

Bryant Tutas

Tutas Towne Realty, Inc and Garden Views Realty, LLC - Winter Garden, FL

Selling Florida one home at a time

Ken I think they are a little late with Lakeland Fl. It was a great place to buy but the values have now increased quit a bit and the market has slowed. I have 2 closings in Lakeland this month on new construction and the builder (KB Homes) has already sold off the remaining 300 lots to a smaller builder and moved out of the area. Why? Can't sell their homes for the price they need.

You can still find some pretty good deals on resales but they are getting harder and harder to find. Up until about 12 months ago there was tremendous amount of rehab activity going on. You can still find duplexes in the low $100s. An investor with patience and who is willing to put the time in searching can still do well in Lakeland Fl.

Jan 26, 2007 12:42 AM

Thanks everyone for the great comments. It's good to hear from professionals from the area these reporters so knowledgeably report on! I am not certain they meant to say that prices had bottomed out in the 10 cities they cited but perhaps they did. Funny if that's what they had in mind because Atlanta's prices never went down. In fact, steadily upward with the exception of a few areas where mortgage fraud has been absolutely wildfire.

Jan 26, 2007 03:00 AM

Charles Blumenkehl

Blue Asset Management - Wayne, NJ

I agree, so much of our market is driven by hype, but the good news is everybody has to live somewhere, so no matter what the newspapers say, there are always people who have to buy and people who have to sell. The key is to make sure they buy and sell through you

Jan 26, 2007 11:57 AM

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