Ignore the Headlines? Not so fast my friend!

By
Real Estate Agent with Colorado Realty Professionals

Time MagazineJust when I think the Media is too out of touch to save, they surprise me.

A Time Magazine article by Dan Kadlec, in the Right on Your Money section tells us that the sky is not falling!  Wow, how about that, a guy who gets it. 

His premise is when home prices are falling few people have the discipline to use that money to buy other assets, instead they spend it on consumables.  And those who pull the trigger now, will benefit in the long run.  He cites a great example of a very likely scenario;

"Consider a typical home that sells for $218,900. You put down 20% and get a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at today's rate of 5.5%. Monthly principal and interest come to $994.31. Let's say that 12 months from now the same house goes for 10% less, or $197,010. But by then the recession is history and the Fed is jacking up rates to stem inflation. If mortgage costs rise a point, to 6.5%, your monthly payment would be $994.94 and you'd have saved nothing. Meanwhile, home prices might steady and sellers might become less willing to negotiate. And you have spent a year living someplace you'd rather not be!"

This articulates the point we've been driving here, THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY! To further...(check out complete post here)

See my post on the Perfect Storm to find out why this may be the best time in 20+ years to buy a property.

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Comments (17)

Stanton Homes
Stanton Homes - New Home Builder - Raleigh, NC
Design/Build Custom Home Builder in North Carolina
Great point on what a single percentage point difference on an interest rate can do to someone's ability to buy a home.  And the rates don't seem to be dropping much below 5.5%, even with the continued focus on dropping the Fed rate.
Mar 11, 2008 04:16 AM
Michael (Mike) Elliott
Nottingham Real Estate Group - Hamilton, NJ
Great post. Great article too. And it's true.
Mar 11, 2008 04:17 AM
Jeremy Blanton
Myrtle Beach Homes Blog - Myrtle Beach, SC
Myrtle Beach REALTORĀ®- myrtlebeachhomesblog.com
Ahh this article is a breath of fresh air!!!
Mar 11, 2008 04:18 AM
Dianne Barody
Century 21 AmeriSouth Realty - Pensacola, FL
Pensacola Florida Real Estate

Wonderful, just plain wonderful!!  Thanks for posting.

Mar 11, 2008 04:36 AM
Bob Schenkenberger
Colorado Realty Professionals - Greenwood Village, CO
Denver Real Estate
Thanks for all your comments thus far.  I think it important to get the word out. 
Mar 11, 2008 04:59 AM
Lorraine or Loretta Kratz
Crescent Moon Realty, Inc. & Land N Sea Auctions. - San Marcos, CA
Certified Negotiation Consultants
Thanks for the number crunching, I relate to the analytical part of your post. To bad buyers cannot see the forest for the trees when it comes to the abundance of opportunities they have.
Mar 11, 2008 01:38 PM
Bob Schenkenberger
Colorado Realty Professionals - Greenwood Village, CO
Denver Real Estate

Lorainne, I agree.  Some clients will immediately get the numbers piece.  For those that don't, sometimes you can instill the fear of loss, which is in fact potentially great.

Mar 11, 2008 03:01 PM
Matt Clark
RE/MAX Results - Cincinnati, OH
Cincinnati Real Estate

I loved that article!  Everyone waiting for the bottom won't know it till its back on the upswing.  It can't get much better than these prices out there..

Mar 12, 2008 05:20 AM
Bob Schenkenberger
Colorado Realty Professionals - Greenwood Village, CO
Denver Real Estate
Matt - Thanks for the feedback! 
Mar 12, 2008 08:04 AM
Steve Loynd
Alpine Lakes Real Estate Inc., - Lincoln, NH
800-926-5653, White Mountains NH
Bob I agree with the article and totally agree now is the time to buy.. there is one item of math though the difference in 20% down now versus if the price is down by 10% is $4,378.. so some buyers are still going to gamble that the lower price is worth the wait, especially if they are cash buyers or if they think the Government will continue to take steps to keep rates near the 5.5% stated in the example. Don't get me wrong it's time to move on buys..
Mar 12, 2008 08:13 AM
Bob Schenkenberger
Colorado Realty Professionals - Greenwood Village, CO
Denver Real Estate
Steve-great perspective.  Thanks for contributing
Mar 12, 2008 08:20 AM
Dawn Whalen
Whalen Realty Group,LLC - Indianapolis, IN
Managing Broker

Bob, this was  a great article.  I think it will be a great tool to use with my buyers.  Thanks for sharing it with us.

Dawn

Mar 13, 2008 07:35 AM
Rod Rich
Atlanta Communities Real Estate - Atlanta, GA
Atlanta- Associate Broker
Bob, why can't we have more journalist like this?
Mar 13, 2008 12:32 PM
Anonymous
Anonymous

"...instill the fear of loss, which is in fact potentially great."

Sounds like an honest approach to me. Confirms a lot of my suspicions.

 

Anyway, you should not discount the fact that the buyer in scenario #2 has over 20k more equity than buyer #1. That, according to Mr. Kadlec, is called 'saving nothing'.

That is extra profit if the market rises, and extra maneuvering room if things don't go well and one needs to sell.

I don't know what bothers me more - the thought that no one here caught that, or the though that it was conveniently ignored.

Also, it assumes that in the face of rising rates, prices will hold the line. Even if we are out of the recession and rates are rising, that by no means is a guarantee that housing will have bottomed. Anyone who thinks sellers will be in a stronger position next year is not studying all the factors.

Where were all the agents in 2005 screaming "don't buy!" - Sacramento is gonna drop 27% in two years. Rent and call me back then. Or alerting me about the double-digit losses in most of LA? Those same agents are now telling me that I am too big a fool to realize the opportunities I'm missing now.

You will, I trust, indulge me in my skepticism now.

WC

Mar 13, 2008 07:06 PM
#14
Bob Schenkenberger
Colorado Realty Professionals - Greenwood Village, CO
Denver Real Estate

WC - you are duly indulged in your skepticism.  You sound like you are informed and have the ability to make good decisions.  Congratulations!

The point of the posting was that all consumers need to be informed, and then make decisions on what they think is best for them, their goals, and the time line they are putting this all in.  If you are trying to time the market for the absolute bottom, then good luck!  However, I will point out that it is impossible to do from an analytical perspective, and the only way to accomplish this is dumb luck!  You can make educated guesses, but an absolute "Top" or "Bottom" will only be know in hindsight, and by definition, by the time you know, it's gone. 

Back to the point.  You didn't mention if you were looking to buy for investment, for a roof over your head, short term or long term, so it's tough to comment on your situation directly. 

The decision to buy is not right for everyone, at any time, and what's good in my market may be bad in yours.  I get that.  I also understand that someone looking for a long term financial play, or someone looking to buy a home to live in, and not for investment purchases only, should not care about the absolute bottom.  Interest rates, value in the market place and risk of waiting all need to come into the decision making process.  If you fit into this category, and you want to buy in the Denver area, I stand behind the argument, this is the best buying opportunity in 20 years!  I have people buying homes at half of what they actually sold for in 2003!  You're telling me you want to wait for another couple of percent, at what cost?  These are great values, even if we are not at absolute bottom.  The old one in the hand theory.

If you are looking to do fix and flips, or have a short term approach to buying real estate, I'm not so sure it is a great time.  The best time for short term flips, is when the market is going up quickly, which is not happening at this moment.

Conclusion:  Real Estate is not one size fits all, and if you feel your better off waiting and timing the market, other risks be damned, then good for you. You may make a couple percent more than everyone else when the market does (and it will) go back up, and then you will be able to tell the world how smart you are. 

On the other hand, you may miss the boat again! 

 

Mar 14, 2008 03:13 AM
Anonymous
Weary Consumer

I intend to buy soon, since I plan to live in a house for at least ten years, so the theoretical bottom is not especially key to my decision.

But, I think that most of us would agree that when the market turns, we will see (most likely) typical rates of appreciation. That is characteristic of housing. So, if I wanted to get close to the bottom, I just need to wait for the median to start rising slowly, then buy.

I will have only "MISSED" the bottom by a few percent, while also being assured that further losses are unlikely. Two or three percent premium over the bottom is cheap insurance to have the knowledge that you didn't buy ten or more percent before the bottom. I think of it as exactly that - insurance.

My beef with the article is that it does NOT make an analysis of all the factors. Kadlec even says that buyer number #2 saves NOTHING. He implies that buyer #1 is actually better of. I don't think MR. Kadlec is very financially sophisticated, or he is lazy, and not explaining the benefits and risks of both scenarios fully enough to provide real consumer education.

Mar 14, 2008 06:11 AM
#16
Anonymous
Weary Consumer
And thank you for the response - I think we are generally in agreement.
Mar 14, 2008 06:13 AM
#17

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