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Is The Real Estate Market Cooling Down?

By
Real Estate Agent with RE/MAX Executives

Lately, my inbox has had an increasing number of flyers from real estate agents throughout the United States as well as Prince William County advertising

  • Price reductions
  • Broker's open houses
  • Weekend open houses for the public

Recent news reports about the 12 months of  price increases in Prince William County are quoting history - not recent trends.

The chart below shows clearly that in my market area

  • Active listings are steadily increasing
  • Pending contracts are trending downward
  • Closed sales are showing signs of a downward trend as a result of fewer pending contracrs

For the past several months mortgage interest rates have been slowly increasing which  impacts negatively on the number of potential buyers who can qualify to purchase a home.

 



Now, about those price increases.  As seen below, the median sales price increased steadily for the three momths following January of this year.  

Since then there have been three instances of month over monthf sales price decline - that alone does not cause concern unless you also consider the decline in pending contracts.

It will take at least three more months of closed sales to learn whether or not the decline in pending contracts will cause a reduction in median sales prices in Prince William County.

Negative thinking on my part?  This is not the first time in my 37 years in the real estate business that I have seen similar figures.  It has not always resulted in market turmoil

 



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The Kruschkas are long term Prince William County residents with more than 30 years experience as real estate professionals serving Woodbridge, Manassas, Dumfries, Manassas Park, Bristow, Brentsville, Gainesville and Haymarket.

Our Experience Isn’t Expensive – It’s PRICELESS

If you plan to buy or sell a Prince William County home or property contact Karen and Art by Email or call us at 703-499-9279. Put our record of customer service, real estate experience and state-of-the-art technology to work for you in Alexandria, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Prince William County, Stafford County or the entire Northern Virginia Area.

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For homes in eastern Prince William County see Ashland, Brittany, Eagles Pointe, Lake Ridge, Lake Terrapin. Lynnwood, Meadowbrook Woods, Montclair, Old Bridge Estates, Port Potomac, Port Potomac Homes For Sale Updated Hourly , Potomac Club, River Falls, Rollingwood Village, Saratoga Hunt, Wellington, Westridge and Winding Creek Estates

For Springfield area homes see Cardinal Forest, Cardinal Forest Condominiums, Charlestown, Daventry, Greentree Village, Kings Park, Newington Forest, Orange Hunt Estates, Rolling Valley, Saratoga, West Springfield Village and Winter Forest

Comments(20)

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Cindy Edwards
RE/MAX Checkmate - Johnson City, TN
CRS, GRI, PMN - Northeast Tennessee 423-677-6677

Hi Karen,

Always good to see an increasing market.  Our market is strong and we are busy.  Got to love it while it's here.  We just don't know what the future holds.

Sep 14, 2013 08:48 AM
Adrian Willanger
206 909-7536 AdrianWillanger-broker.com - Seattle, WA
Profit from my two decades of experience

Karen,

Great charts, this really is good information for buyers and sellers about the real estate trends in Prince William County. And of course they have you to help position them correctly. 

Sep 14, 2013 08:53 AM
Joan Cox
House to Home, Inc. - Denver Real Estate - 720-231-6373 - Denver, CO
Denver Real Estate - Selling One Home at a Time

Karen, price reductions are surely the first indication the market is cooling off.   We are seeing this trend in Denver.   Great report.

Sep 14, 2013 10:14 AM
Silvia Dukes PA, Broker Associate, CRS, CIPS, SRES
Tropic Shores Realty - Ich spreche Deutsch! - Spring Hill, FL
Florida Waterfront and Country Club Living
Karen, I don't think it's negative thinking, I would call it keen observation. The rising interest rates definitely will have an impact on sales and it needs to be seen for how long.
Sep 14, 2013 10:15 AM
Carla Muss-Jacobs, RETIRED
RETIRED / State License is Inactive - Portland, OR

I called the seller's market DOA in my local market about 6 weeks ago.  It's leveling off, but there is nothing of the flying off the shelf anymore.  Granted a great home, great price, great location, great condition isn't going to last.  But that's a given in any market.  

Sep 14, 2013 11:38 AM
Teral McDowell
Referral Patners LLC - Murphy, TX

hi Karen, we can see some of the same trends here in our market area.

Sep 14, 2013 12:00 PM
David Saks
Memphis, TN
Broker / Industry Analyst

Great info.Thanks for sharing. Hopes for your continued success.

Sep 14, 2013 09:51 PM
Karen Kruschka
RE/MAX Executives - Woodbridge, VA
- "My Experience Isn't Expensive - It's PRICELESS"

Cindy  Let's all hoipe the market remains strong

Sep 15, 2013 04:14 AM
Karen Kruschka
RE/MAX Executives - Woodbridge, VA
- "My Experience Isn't Expensive - It's PRICELESS"

Adrian  Your support is apprciated

Sep 15, 2013 04:19 AM
Karen Kruschka
RE/MAX Executives - Woodbridge, VA
- "My Experience Isn't Expensive - It's PRICELESS"

Joan  I suspect it is spreading nationally

Sep 15, 2013 04:23 AM
Karen Kruschka
RE/MAX Executives - Woodbridge, VA
- "My Experience Isn't Expensive - It's PRICELESS"

Silvia  I agree with you entirely

Sep 15, 2013 04:28 AM
Karen Kruschka
RE/MAX Executives - Woodbridge, VA
- "My Experience Isn't Expensive - It's PRICELESS"

Carla  Very true

Sep 15, 2013 04:30 AM
Karen Kruschka
RE/MAX Executives - Woodbridge, VA
- "My Experience Isn't Expensive - It's PRICELESS"

David  You are very welcome

Sep 15, 2013 04:38 AM
Karen Kruschka
RE/MAX Executives - Woodbridge, VA
- "My Experience Isn't Expensive - It's PRICELESS"

Teral  It is not peculiar to my area

Sep 15, 2013 04:41 AM
Wayne Johnson
Coldwell Banker D'Ann Harper REALTORSĀ® - San Antonio, TX
San Antonio REALTOR, San Antonio Homes For Sale

Karen-It is nice to see the median sales price is still above your January point. Higher interest and entering the fall season both tend to slow sales in our market.

Sep 15, 2013 12:30 PM
Karen Kruschka
RE/MAX Executives - Woodbridge, VA
- "My Experience Isn't Expensive - It's PRICELESS"

Wayne  Interesting - we usually see an uptivk in the Fall

Sep 15, 2013 08:37 PM
Kay Van Kampen
RE/MAX Broker, RE/MAX - Springfield, MO
RealtorĀ®, Springfield Mo Real Estate

Karen, good market report.  Our market inventory is at a record low right now.  We could use more good homes on the market.

Sep 15, 2013 09:45 PM
Karen Kruschka
RE/MAX Executives - Woodbridge, VA
- "My Experience Isn't Expensive - It's PRICELESS"

Kay  As you saw our inventory is growing

Sep 15, 2013 10:27 PM
Rebecca Gaujot, RealtorĀ®
Lewisburg, WV
Lewisburg WV, the go to agent for all real estate

Hi Karen, our market tends to slow in the fall and winter months. We have a lot of listings. Another great market report for PRince William County.

Sep 15, 2013 11:24 PM
Karen Kruschka
RE/MAX Executives - Woodbridge, VA
- "My Experience Isn't Expensive - It's PRICELESS"

Rebecca  Thank you for uvisit - our markets are very similar

Sep 15, 2013 11:58 PM