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What's October been like?

By
Real Estate Agent with Home Based Realty 01737966/01367311

A quick look at real estate.  

Palmdale Prices

- $370,000, peak in 2006

- $137,000, cycle low in Feb 2012

- $168,000, July 2013

- $172,500, August 2013 (+23.1% yr over yr)

 

Lancaster Prices

- $342,000, peak in 2006

- $124,000, cycle low Feb 2012

- $153,500, July 2013

- $157,800, August 2013 (+24.4% yr over yr)

As you can see, Antelope Valley homes are not even at ½ of their median price peak

from 2006.  This tells me that this market still has plenty of room for an upside move,

and with it, land prices as well. 

 

Existing Home Market as Reported by Local MLS

- in August, 456 existing homes were sold vs July’s 442, a gain of +3.1%

- Versus August of 2012, sales down though about -14%

- Year to date, through August 31, sales are down -12% vs the same period in 2012

- the average price of a home sold in August was $189,988, +29% vs August of 2012

- the average selling price of an AV home the first 8 months of 2013 is $172,543, up

  +23% vs the first 8 months of 2012

- foreclosures were just 8% of all sales in August

- short sales were 20% of all sales in Aug

- over the past year astounding improvement has been made in the distress

  portion of the AV home market.  In Aug 2012, foreclosures made up 47% of all sales and short sales 27.6%

Sales are still being hampered by low inventory, leading to poor selection. This bodes well for the new home market once it gets up and running again.

 

Palmdale / Lancaster REO Inventory 

This is the most important category to track in regard to the progress of the recovery

of the housing recovery.

In August………………….

Palmdale-  875 homes were in default, foreclosure, or were bank owned (REO)

REO’s versus prior month:  down - 26 homes / - 2.8%      

REO’s year over year change, - 1,229 homes / - 58.4%   

Notice of Defaults filed, year over year change,  - 57%             

Time needed to sell off all foreclosures: existing REO supply / year over year change = 8.5 months  

 

Lancaster- 962 homes were in default, in foreclosure, or were bank owned (REO)        

REO’s versus prior month:  + 37 homes, + 4.0%       

REO’s year over year change, - 932 homes, - 49%   

Notice of Defaults filed, year over year change, - 48%                

Time needed to sell off all foreclosures:  existing REO supply / year over year change = 12 months

 

The decline of AV REO’s in August took a rest and flattened out, rising a total

of 11 homes in both cities collectively.  Year over year, the trend of falling REO’s is still

well in place.  As expressed in time, the supply of REO’s rose slightly, from 8 months to 10.

All trends stair step their way up or down, backing and filling along the way.  The July decline

in REO’s was very strong, down 345 homes.  Statistically, after such a sharp move like that,

it is not unusual to see the succeeding month flatten out as the previous month needs to be

digested before the trend resumes.  It is highly probable, that one year from now, REO’s will

no longer be a factor in the existing home market.   If so, that is great news for the new home

market and for land prices.  

Posted by

Richard

Comments(2)

Sandy Padula & Norm Padula, JD, GRI
HomeSmart Realty West & Florida Realty Investments - , CA
Presence, Persistence & Perseverance

Richard & Janet, great report. It does appear that a recovery is well underway. Are you experiencing the bulk investor buys of REOs in your market. We are seeing a diminished level of  this activity and the investors are now focusing on new homes directly from builders.

Oct 25, 2013 12:47 AM
Richard & Janet OBrian
Home Based Realty - Palmdale, CA
Listing Specialist Palmdale, Lancaster CA

Norman, we are seeing 3 major investor groups trying to buy up most anything under 300K.  Thanks for the heads up "buying directly from builders", cuts us out of the loop...  

Oct 25, 2013 01:07 AM