Special offer

Is there Pent Up Demand?

By
Real Estate Agent with Home Based Realty 01737966/01367311

Antelope Valley's New Home Market

Ever so slowly, and with no fanfare, the new home market is coming back to life.  We now have 4 builders selling new homes in the Antelope Valley. 

Why have home buyers come to the AV since the 1970’s?  

Here is a home emailed to me from a broker in the Santa Clarita market, just 40 minutes away.

1665 sq feet

3 BR, 2 bath

2 car garage

built in 2002

Offered at $445,000

The above home, in either Palmdale or Lancaster, right now, could be purchased in the area of $170,000.

Or what could one buy in the AV market for $445,000?

 

I took these 3 homes out of our MLS.  Each one is $430,000.     

4br, 4 bath, 3,780 sq feet, on ½ acre

4br, 3 bath, 4,300 sq feet, on 1 acre

3br, 2 bath, 2,852 sq feet, on 1.88 acre

 

In the AV the home buyer gets the same home for 66% less than in Santa Clarita OR, a house

twice the size, on acreage, for the same money as a 1600 sq ft production home in Santa Clarita. 

 

KB Homes

Copper Moon, 60th St West & Ave J

only 11 home sites available

Gibraltar, 17th St West & Lancaster Blvd

a 42 lot neighborhood

2,360 to over 3,000 square feet

Dorado Vista, 30th St East & Ave J-4

3 to 6 bedrooms

2 to 3 bathrooms

1,773 to 2,530 square feet

solar system included

Dorado Skies, 37th St East & Ave J

4 to 6 bedrooms

2 to 3 bathrooms

2,359 to 3,201 square feet

2 car garages

1.8kw solar system included, can be upgraded

buyer can choose location, floor plan, and other options

O’ Bel Sol, 25th St East & K-4

10,000 square foot lots, all have 2 car garages

1988 sf, 4br / 2 bath, flex space, from $222,990

2548 sf, 4-5 br, 2-3 bath, den, from $237,990

2877 sf, 4 br, 2 - 2.5 bath, fam room, din area, $247,990

3027 sf, 4-5 br, 2-3 bath, den, fam rm, formal liv rm, din area $251,990   

In September, KB Homes has also started to once again advertise their various

tracts in the Sunday Antelope Valley Press, something not done for years.

 

Harris Homes

Windsor Hills, 23rd East, south of Ave S

- all single story plans

- 1710 to 2121 square feet

- 4 bedrooms and 2 bath

- energy efficient

- concrete tile roofs

- stone décor trim elevations (some models)  

- upgraded cabinets

- upgraded flooring

- blinds for windows throughout

- Starting at $222,000

 

Harris Homes has also a sign up on 60th St West & Ave J-8 advertising a new

housing tract coming soon.

 

Pacific Communities

This Newport Beach based builder is a long time builder of homes in the AV, and

has two west Lancaster projects on going. 

 

Pacific Tapestry, 45th St West & Ave J-8

- early California architecture

- 1 & 2 story floor plans

- 1,838 sf to 4,811 sq feet

- 3 to 8 bedrooms

- starting in the $200,000’s

Pacific Northstar, 45th St West & Ave J-8

- distinctive exteriors

- 1,548 sq ft to 2,735 sq feet

- 1 & 2 story floor plans

- 3 to 5 bedroom options

- customizing options available

- pricing in the $200,000’s

 

In addition to the above tracts, Pacific Communities has plans for two more tracts

in the same west Lancaster area:  Pacific Jasmine and Pacific Larkspur.

 

Hovnanian Homes

Hovnanian in the last housing cycle of 2004-2007 developed a gated community at

90W & Ave I, called Westview.  12 homes were finished, or nearly finished, and

have been sitting unsold since.  Hovnanian has decided to put 3 of these empty homes

up for sale to test market demand.  After selling these 12 homes, Hovnanian will then

make a decision on whether or not to build more homes on the remaining vacant lots. 

 

Antelope Valley Building Permit History

 

Source of data:  Antelope Valley Building Industry Assoc.

bold red = housing boom years 

 

1987-  5,948

1988-  6,750

1989- 12,384

1990-  2,020

1991-  2,124

1992-  2,764

1993-  1,348

1994-  1,115

1995-   861

1996-   900

1997-   965

1998-   861

1999-  1,442

2000-  1,129

2001-  1,712

2002-  1,588

2003-  2,225  

2004-  3,985

2005-  5,076   

2006-  3,565

2007-  2,194

2008-  1,019   

2009-    565  

2010-    528    

2011-    292

2012-    250

2013-     86 (through 6-30-13)

 

Of the 86 building permits issued in the first half of 2013, all 86 were issued in

Lancaster, none in Palmdale.  The reason for the imbalance?  Simple, there are no finished lots

in Palmdale, sitting ready, owned by banks, to sell to builders.  KB Homes, who is building in

Lancaster, is only doing so because they were able to pick up completed finished lots from the

banks in 2009.  Being able to do so saved the builder $70k to $80k per finished lot, and made

building a home profitable.  As I have been saying over the past several months, in early to mid

2014, the supply of finished lots will run out.  At that point, the home builders have two options: 

push and grade dirt to build, or sit and wait.  What happens at this point will be the real “tell” as

to the immediate future of the new home market in the Antelope Valley.  At the rate the AV

foreclosures are being bought up, they too may be near historically normal levels at about the same

time the need for lots will arise.  I can tell you from experience, that depressed markets create

pent up demand.

Posted by

Richard

Comments(1)

Tracy Oliva
West USA Realty - Arizona - Fountain Hills, AZ
The Oliva Team Arizona Agents

Good Morning:  This is some great Info for all in your area!!  Keep up the good work and good luck with your business,  E

Oct 25, 2013 12:47 AM