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Information for Montrose Colorado and surrounding area. The Zappa Team, your Montrose Colorado Real Estate Experts.

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Real Estate Agent with Eagles Wings Realty
Courtesy of our friends at Guild Mortgage
Latest Information in the Market
Brought to you by The Zappa Team, Montrose Colorado's Real Estate Experts
Inside Lending from Terrie Higgins

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Terrie Higgins

Terrie Higgins
Senior Loan Officer
501 Main Street
Grand Junction, CO 81501
Office: (970) 361-3582
E-Fax: (970) 372-1280

Guild Mortgage Company

For the week of October 28, 2013 – Vol. 11, Issue 43

>> Market Update

QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "Be bold in what you stand for and careful what you fall for." --Ruth Boorstin, American writer and poet 

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... All of us who boldly stand for a continuing housing recovery should be careful to not fall for some of the negative spin put on last week's report that Existing Home Sales were down 1.9% in September. The naysayers quickly pounced on this as evidence we should brace for a housing slowdown. But wait a minute. September sales were at the third highest monthly level since late 2009, when the home buyer tax credit was about to go away. The two months that scored higher than September were this July and August, so the dip comes after two very strong reports.

The fact is, Existing Home Sales are at a 5.29 million annual rate, up 10.7% over a year ago. The median price is up 11.7% from a year ago, the tenth month in a row of double-digit year-over-year gains. The months' supply is at 5.0, versus the 5.4 level of a year ago. For those worried about affordability, HousingWire recently reported thatthe average household can afford to live in at least 80% of the homes on the market. Buyers, no longer worried about values dropping, pushed purchase mortgage applications up 1% for the week ending October 18, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.   

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... McKinsey & Company research says word of mouth is responsible for 50% of all purchase decisions. So it makes sense to put 50% of your marketing effort toward people who can recommend you to others.

>> Review of Last Week

GAME ON!... With the partial government shutdown over, the game was back on in Washington. The game was also back on for Wall Street investors who spent the weeksending the S&P 500 to another all-time high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq reached a 13-year peak and the Dow rose for the third week in a row to its best close since September 19. The bullish push came from the market's belief that the Fed will delay tapering its bond buying program at least until 2014. Investors like the fact that this will keep interest rates low and the economy stimulated.

The need for economic stimulation remains obvious. The September Employment Report finally came in with just 148,000 jobs added for the month, down from 193,000 new jobs in August. Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation were also off in September, while the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading forOctober came in almost 10 points lower than the final number for September. But weekly Initial Unemployment Claims fell by 12,000 to 350,000, and the Trade Deficit, at $38.8 billion, is $5.2 billion smaller than a year ago.

The week ended with the Dow up 1.1%, to 15570; the S&P 500 up 0.9%, to 1760; and the Nasdaq up 0.7%, to 3943.

The lukewarm September jobs report was enough to send investors scurrying to the safe haven of the bond market. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week up .22, at $102.22. National average mortgage rates dipped to four-month lows in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending October 24.Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up to the minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... The chief economist for a national online real estate site said the median time on the market for all homes sold in September was 50 days, down from 70 days in September a year ago.

>> This Week’s Forecast

RETAIL, PENDING HOME SALES, AND MANUFACTURING SLIP WHILE THE FED MEETS... We have a week packed with reports. Overall Retail Sales and Pending Home Sales are forecast off for September. Factory activity is also predicted down for October by both the national ISM Index and the Midwestern Chicago PMI, althoughIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization should grow in September.

But the big focus will be Wednesday's Fed meeting. No one expects a change in theFOMC Rate Decision or any tapering of the Fed's bond buying program, but their policy statement will be scrutinized. At least inflation is forecast still tame by theConsumer Price Index (CPI).

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. 

Economic Calendar for the Week of Oct 28 – Nov 1

 Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
M
Oct 28
09:15 Industrial Production Sep 0.3% 0.4% Moderate
M
Oct 28
09:15 Capacity Utilization Sep 78.0% 77.8% Moderate
M
Oct 28
10:00 Pending Home Sales Sep –1.3% –1.6% Moderate
Tu
Oct 29
08:30 Retail Sales Sep –0.1% 0.2% HIGH
Tu
Oct 29
08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Sep 0.2% 0.3% Moderate
Tu
Oct 29
08:30 Core PPI Sep 0.1% 0.0% Moderate
Tu
Oct 29
10:00 Business Inventories Aug 0.2% 0.4% Moderate
Tu
Oct 29
10:00 Consumer Confidence Oct 73.1 79.7 Moderate
W
Oct 30
08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Sep 0.1% 0.1% HIGH
W
Oct 30
08:30 Core CPI Sep 0.1% 0.1% HIGH
W
Oct 30
10:30 Crude Inventories 10/26 NA 5.246M Moderate
W
Oct 30
14:00 FOMC Rate Decision 10/30 0%–0.25% 0%–0.25% HIGH
Th 
Oct 31
08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 10/26 335K 350K Moderate
Th 
Oct 31
08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 10/19 2.850M 2.874M Moderate
Th 
Oct 31
09:45 Chicago PMI Oct 55.0 55.7 HIGH
F
Nov 1
10:00 ISM Index Oct 55.0 56.2 HIGH

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... Many economists believe the Fed will keep the Funds Rate at its super low level through next year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Oct 30 0%–0.25%
Dec 18 0%–0.25%
Jan 29 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Oct 30      
Dec 18      
Jan 29      
 

This e-mail is an advertisement for Terrie Higgins. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Guild Mortgage Company and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. The material does not represent the opinion of Guild Mortgage Company. This information is subject to change without notice. This branch lends in Colorado.NMLS Company Unique ID 3274; Branch ID # 3274. Regulated by the Colorado Division of Real Estate. This Branch is licensed to do business in Colorado. Individual NMLS 580472; LMB100035768. I lend in CO.

Posted by

___________________________________________________________________________________ 

Eagles Wings Realty, Montrose, Colorado

In the Heart of the San Juan Mtns. in Southwest Colorado

www.Montrose-colorado-realestate.com 970-901-0434

Home of the Black Canyon National Park, The San Juan Mountains, unlimited recrecational  opportunitys, Mtn. Biking, Hiking, Golf, Fishing, Camping, White Water sports, Hunting

 "too many things to do, not enough time"

The information contained in Nick's blog is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed, and the opinions and views expressed in these articles are solely those of the author.

_________________________________________

For information on Distressed properties contact us at Nick@ZappaTeam.com

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Comments (1)

Connie Harvey
Pilkerton Realtors - Brentwood, TN
Realtor - Nashville TN Real Estate

Hi Nick! I just stopped by to wish you and your family a Merry Christmas!

Dec 22, 2013 08:08 AM