Mortgage Market Week In Review Dana Bain Premiere Mortgage November 4th, 2013

By
Mortgage and Lending with Premiere Mortgage Services Inc. MLO 18693

http://www.bainmortgage.com/MortgageMarketWeekInReview

Newsletter-November 4th, 2013     
Provided by 
Dana Bain & Robin Dunbar Bain

Dana Bain
Premiere Mortgage Services

www.BainMortgage.com

11 Malvern Hill Road
Sterling, MA 01564
Phone: (978) 422-2311
Fax: (978) 422-2313
E-Mail: dana@bainmortgage.com

 
 

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week lower which pushed mortgage interest rates higher. Rates were slightly higher Monday morning in response to stronger than expected industrial production and capacity use data. Things were stable midweek after the producer price index and consumer price index reports showed no real inflation concerns. The ADP employment report was higher than expected which was not rate friendly. Stronger than expected ISM Index data Friday morning pressured rates a bit higher. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by approximately 1/4 of a discount point.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator

Release
Date & Time

Consensus
Estimate


Analysis

Factory Orders

Monday, Nov. 4,
10:00 am, et

Up 0.2% 

Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims

Thursday, Nov. 7,
8:30 am, et

342k Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Q3 Advance GDP 

Thursday, Nov. 7,
8:30 am, et

Up 2.2%

Important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Consumer Credit

Thursday, Nov. 7,
3:00 pm, et

$11.54b

Low importance. A significantly large increase may lead to lower mortgage interest rates.
Employment Friday, Nov. 8,
8:30 am, et
7.2%,
Payrolls +133k 
Very important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Personal Income and Outlays Friday, Nov. 8,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.2%,
Up 0.2%
Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
PCE Core Inflation Friday, Nov. 8,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.2% Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Friday, Nov. 8,
10:00 am, et
72.8 Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Income and Outlays

The personal income and outlays release is a monthly report issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The data is important because it is thought to provide a solid indication of future consumer demand. The personal income component is primarily a measure of wages and salaries. The outlays component is primarily a measure of spending on goods and services. Together the figures provide analysts valuable insight into consumer economic standing and consumption.

The prior release showed an increase in wages and salaries. If that trend reverses future weakness could adversely affect consumer spending and the entire US economy. Decreased or stagnant wages coupled with tighter borrowing restrictions make it difficult for consumers to spend money. It is important to note that no single economic indicator can consistently predict the future of the economy. However, the personal income and outlays report is a closely watched release. The consumer remains a vital component of the US economy. 

The release this week has the potential to move the financial markets. Now is a good time to take advantage of mortgage interest rates at their current levels to avoid market volatility.
 



 
 
 
   MORTGAGE MARKET IN REVIEW Newsletter-November 4th, 2013     

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