I hope you are correct. I am still leaning toward kids staying at home until they absolutely must get out...again, hope you are right!

Good Morning and this is some thoughts,  keep up the good work and good luck with your sales,  E

 

Interesting subject and belief.  You are right about a lot of folks are tired of being on hold.  I feel there will still be many in that position in 2014.  What is encouraging has been the increase in values over the last 14-16 months, in order for 1.8 million homeowners to have positive equity.  Now, a lot more can move on with their real estate plans.

Good morning, Phil.... this is a wonderful read for all real estate agents and their young buyer clients..... the time has come to move on with life....

Good morning Phil. You are too funny and probably right. The Uterus Effect.......I see a book in this. I hope you are well and wish you and yours a great holiday season. Suggested.

You make a good point Phil... Here's to you being right... Happy Day and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.

Phil, While I too am hope that you are right on this one, but I must argue the issue of the uterus being the driving force to measure the housing recovery. My husband is an obstetrician and knows first hand what is happening in this "market". The birth rate for the entire country is down. Yes, people are actually using birth control and not having babies. Just ask your local hospital for their stats. 

I am hopeful that as the market is stabalizing and moving forward that people put off having a family. What has been the recent observations and stats, babies being born to the population that will not buy homes and the first time home buyers are having less babies or waiting until they are older. No, they won't wait forever, but the birthrate is down. Not just here in my part of New York, it is all over the US, and even in Europe for that matter. While I prefer your scenario I am a bit of a skeptic that we see more babies. Our future depends on it.

I sure hope you are right on this one Phil.  Very well written and good message.                                                                

I could not agree more .   please read this Real estate forecast    it is a video but worth every second of your time

Hannah

There is actually history on our side for this.  The post-WW2 baby boom was a major factor in the housing boom that followed.  Excellent insight Phil!

 

FEATURED IN BANANATUDE

 

I suspect that many people are simply not going to wait any longer to make a move. Some will make a move because they're ready to start or grow their families, others will make a move because its time to retire and enjoy the good life, while other may see the benefits of simply moving on to a new location. 2014 will certainly be a challenging year.

Good call, Phil. It's hard to argue with demographics, psychology and pent up demand, and this is as good an explanation for this year's activity as for the coming one.

Phil, We've seen a similar reaction from sellers in our market.  ENOUGH waiting, we need to get on with the next chapter in our lives and we can't do it with THIS home.

Will this mean that you can now also moonlight as an artificial insemination donor, Philip, when the housing supply declines, making more money than ever before and start living in the royal manner of which you so richly deserve ?

Philip, this is so on the mark! And once the wife is pregnant, the urge to buy is even stronger. Working with people who are expanding is fun, and they seem to have completely gotten over being decision-making impaired in any way.

Great post, and people can certainly put their lives on hold forever waiting for the perfect time to buy.  There is no perfect time, no nor sure thing except death and taxes.  If you want a new home, now's the time.

Phil - My stepson has been living with his mother for the last 2.5 years. He and his wife have decided to move forward with a home purchase because his wife wants to have baby number 2. I agree and young families are ready to make a move.

Ah, yes, the 16% interest rate . . . only thing was, housing prices were not at current levels.  The bank gets you either way.  I found this post odd, and yeah, it's the uterus all right {rolling eyes}.  Sure hope medical science picks this discovery up, and you're awarded the Putzpuller award in 2014 for medical breakthroughs.

You make me laugh and have a completely valid way of looking at this.  I think you are spot on.

It's definitely time for folks to get moving, but I'm not sure 2014 can be better than 2013. We've hit previous market peaks from the heat of the market back in 2005-07, so not sure how much more growth we can have. It will certainly be a busy year, but think folks in Atlanta already got the message about buying now.

Phil - there is a lot of truth to your theory and it played out after WWII - lots and lots and lots of new homes built for the 1st timer buyers.  Life does go on.....and it's way past time to be sitting on the fence waiting. Go for it.

I've made the same prediction ... but for additional reasons.  I just don't believe that Americans can deny themselves a future .. a home ... growth ... for an undeterminable amount of time.  It's not in our nature.  We pull ourselves up by our bootstraps, face reality ... and eventually move on with our lives.  It's time to do that ... Your prediction is much more fun though!!

Gene

From your lips to God's ears Phil.  Many good points here.   Women really can only hold off having children for so long before the chance passes.   They will need housing.  

PS... I have often told my two grown sons and my husband that my uterus is not a homing device, since they can't seem to find anything without asking me where it is.  I see now that in addition to it maybe actually being a homing device, it can also be a want a home device.  

Phil - while I am not ready to bet the farm on your Uterus theory it certainly made me laugh. Then as I read it I thought there could be some simple common sense that might make this work. I think I will leave it at that. Thanks for the post.

Yes, I do agree that most buy/sell due to personal/family reasons (and sometimes jobs) more so than interest rates.  Interest rates generally only have short term impact on how fast, but rarely an impact on whether someone buys.  When it's the right time, esp for expanding family needs, it happens.  then, it's just a matter of how much house/which neighborhood/price. - Debbie

Yes! I agree! We've already seen the signs this year, sellers who don't want to wait any longer and are OK with breaking even and buyers with a growing family - I worked with 4 couples this year who were expecting. I'm also seeing more younger buyers enter the market again.

still in a buyer's market in my area I hope you're right and they will be buying here in the next couple of years. 

Phil, I think the shortage of inventory is going to keep driving the market here.

I have really positive feelings about housing in 2014 too.  As far as Wall Street goes, I think much will depend on how well the Fed tapers their movement.  I can only imagine how great everything would be economically, if Congress would begin working together for the good of the people, rather than against each other for special interests.

Hi Phil,

I like how you're thinking!!!  :)

Plus, many of my clients are reporting an extra busy November.  Are you seeing that in your market?

My parents bought our first brand new home in 1955 for that very reason. Thank goodness we aren't China, although I believe they can now have two kids instead of one.

//

Phil -- I think this is an interesting observation.  I am seeing this in New Hampshire as well.

I agree with you 100%! Family's want to be family's again and start living their lives to the fullest, which means a place to call home. Great post Phil!

It's an interesting thought, and might even have a semblance of credibility in some sectors. While people still have a concern over their employment and in some areas that is still not trending upwards, the caution sensitivity will definitely overrule the medical thought

Phil, I hadn't thought about things that way.  Lenders are starting to relax a bit and give buyers the green light.

Phil, National stats are showing otherwise, but I am hopeful. Time will tell and I am hoping that you are right.

Hey J Phil,

I too am looking forward to an awesome 2014 with lots of new beginnings and constantly closings.  Best of GREAT success to you and the team!

I sure hope you are correct! Pent up demand is one way to put it; uterus demand is another...

All I can say is I hope you are right. Better to be positive. Interest rates are still very low. World is still very scary.

I agree Phil!  Although birth rates are down in our area, it's the 'planning' that has been on hold for 5-7 years now and we're seeing that movement here as well.

And, speaking of uteruses, I have noticed that the women, who have suppressed their new nest desires for so long, not just for growing their family, are out looking again.  Life is good and I expect 2014 to continue down this same path despite any Fed tapering/rise in interest rates.

Phil - I agree that there is pent up demand. Congratulations on expanding.

Oh, dear, I didn't know where you were going with this one.  Family planning is important, I wholeheartedly agree.

We still have hot and cold spots in the St Louis Area- It is really dependent on the school districts- as we had 2 large districts lose accreditation this past year.

I think you are right.  You can only hold back so long.  Time to get some more inventory for the upcoming rush.

Don't agree as the stats for 'kids' returning home is really alarming. You are expressing your thoughts in 'they should' but in fact, they aren't. These are people that are above 28+ years old which should already be having some sort of private life but they aren't. It's actually kind of creepy I think.

You shouldn't hold up your life for better economic times but people are doing it in droves. There will never be that 'perfect' time to have that kid.

Now that is one of the smartest blogs I have read in some time.  You are smarter than most if not all of the economists out there and your information is better than any news story. 

I love this sunny outlook!  I know many people who bought homes at rates of 13% to 18%.

without getting into a debate about all the variables, one could assume that there is a pent up demand.

The future will bring about a new normal that may not be what we exactly hoped for.

Sure some will choose to move and buy but the data you market to must be ultra targeted

good luck out there.

haaaa - good point. I got MY house at a good price due to the fact that it had been on the Market for awhile, and the family was still growing.

Great post Phil, the uterine index, very interesting and you may be correct 2014 will likely be a very good year.

Very true Phil.

The same needs are there in fact they have been intensified in my area by low inventory and buyers also trying to wait out a bad economy.  I get the sense from many that they are just flat out tired of waiting.  Five or six years of waiting is enough!  Especially when it comes to starting a family or buying a bigger family home.  You have to do that while your kids can enjoy it, not as they are leaving for college!

Very funny and yet likely a lot of truth here.    Another reason that buyers got pent up was job insecurity, so this combination could lead to a lot more people moving if the economy improves.

I think there are a lot of people setting on the fence waiting to see how the dominos will fall in DC.  A lot of things seem to be coming to a head.

I think different parts of the country and different economic classes will react in different ways.  Your premise is folks take action vs reaction.

Lots and lots of young married couples moved back in with the parents in Arizona. I'm sure they're anxious to get out on their own. I'm hoping 2014 is a great year in real estate!

I have also seen local landlords allowing multiple families and groups of roommates sharing the rent on a rental house.  If the economy improves, then maybe some of these renters will get tired of sharing and look for their own place to rent or own with more privacy.

Colorado has legalized the sale of recreational marijuana starting January 1, 2014.  It will be interesting to watch how that affects our economy.  Maybe an increase in sales of munchies.  Maybe I should buy a brownie bakery shop.

Love this post, Phil!  I saw it in my email several days ago- great fun to read, and very true!

Will we see you at my Meet Up on next Tuesday?   Love to have you come!

J. PHILIP - very interesting. I learned that itis not what media or gurus are trying to tell us. Last time the market jumped like crazy after stagnation, unemployment was the same, we had the same President, and there was not clear trigger, and it just happened.

Your theory good and interesting.

The problem isn't really the lack of desire but the ability to qualify given the new requirements.   However, it always goes in circles and it is about time the buying started again, for whatever reason.   Thanks for the sunny outlook.

There are alwys people buying and selling homes in any market.   

Great post, thanks for sharing!

Just a quick drive by to wish you and yours a Happy Thanksgiving

People need food, water and housing in order to survive. If anything is missing of these three than you have no society. Even if the market goes down you still make a good living and you cannot get laid off.

So true!  Families don't want a 10 year age gap between their children.  

Great post Philip. We think you are right on, there is pent up demand that hopefully will unleash in 2014.

Philip,  I think it depends on where your market is  --  geographically, that is.  I'm in an area where homeowners aren't interested in selling and we have a terrific inventory shortage.  You can't buy what isn't there!

J.Philip - you have an unorthodox but very compelling reason for the housing demand. Love it.

I agree with pent up demand. You have analyzed it further than me! Well done!