MMG Weekly: Markets Feast on Fed Minutes

Last Week in Review: The Fed minutes led to renewed talk of tapering, plus key housing data was released.

Forecast for the Week: Reports will be plentiful in the first half of the week, before the Thanksgiving holiday.

View: Defeat the treat with these tips for avoiding snacking on holiday goodies at the office.

• housing data is plentiful this week and kicks off on Monday with Pending Home Sales. Tuesday brings the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, as well as September and October data for Housing Starts and Building Permits. September's Housing Starts and Building Permits were never reported due to the government shutdown.
• Tuesday also brings a read on Consumer Confidence, with the Consumer Sentiment Index following on Wednesday.
• Also on Wednesday, look for Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and news from the manufacturing sector with Chicago PMI.

All capital markets will be closed on Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving. The Bond markets will be open on Friday and will close at 2:00 p.m. ET, while Stocks are also open and will close at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving – and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further – a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, it was a volatile week for Bonds as the Fed minutes renewed talk of tapering the Fed's Bond purchase program. I'll be watching the markets closely in the coming weeks as more discussion on this topic is sure to continue.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Nov 22, 2013)

Avoiding holiday weight gain at the office takes more than maintaining a one-jelly-bean-per-page limit while you photocopy. Here are some great holiday weight-saving tips:

STEP 1: Draw your line in the sand before the goodies arrive. Knowing how much you can afford to indulge–specifically–is critical to success with any plan, but especially your diet. How will you know when you've had enough unless you set a specific limit?

Studies say be specific about your limits and you are two to three times more likely to meet them!

STEP 2: B.Y.O.S. Yes, bring your own snacks! Once you've reached your limit, you might actually still be hungry. So give yourself a huge boost by having a supply of healthy, flab-neutral things to eat instead. Keep fruit, nuts, and good proteins on hand at all times, so you have somewhere to turn when temptation strikes.

According to one study, thinking exclusively about not eating something increases the likelihood you'll actually eat it!

STEP 3: Enjoying yourself gives wings to your every endeavor, including weight management. Taking time to relish your experiences is the key–that means don't eat in meetings or when you're busy, don't swallow things whole or inhale them thoughtlessly.

Researchers suggest mindful enjoyment actually increases your happiness, and that's great news for growing great habits, including self-control.

Help someone else defeat the treat! Feel free to pass these tips along to your team, clients, and colleagues.

Economic Calendar for the Week of November 25 - November 29