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5 Housing Market Predictions You Need to Know

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Education & Training

Now's the time of year when we begin to look forward to what's to come. So, what should you expect for next year's housing market? Here's how the 2014 housing market will be different from 2013. Lets take a look.

The housing market continued its uneven recovery in 2013 and will enter 2014 closer to normal than it was a year earlier. Consumer optimism is climbing back: in Trulia’s latest survey, 74% of Americans said that homeownership was part of achieving their personal American Dream – the highest level since January 2010. Even among young adults (18-34 year olds), many of whom struggled through the recession and are still living with their parents, 73% said homeownership was part of achieving their personal American Dream, up from 65% in August 2011. Rising prices over the past two years have been great news for homeowners, especially for those who had been underwater, and the real estate industry has benefited from both higher prices and more sales volume.

At the same time, the effects of the recession and housing bust still sting: the barriers to homeownership remain high, and a few markets – mostly in Florida – still have a foreclosure overhang. Plus, the housing recovery itself brings its own challenges, including declining affordability and localized bubble worries, especially in southern California.

Barring any economic crises, the housing market should continue to normalize throughout 2014, but change is on the horizon. Here are the five ways that the 2014 housing market will be different from 2013:

  1. Housing Affordability Will Worsen
  2. The Home-Buying Process Will Become Less Frenzied
  3. Repeat Buyers Will Take Center Stage
  4. How Much Prices Slow Will Matter Less Than Why and Where
  5. Rental Action Will Swing Back Toward Urban Apartments 

Want to know the rest? Click here to download all of the 2014 housing predictions. 

Plus, I recently gave a webinar explaining what these housing predictions may mean for your 2014 business. You can watch a replay of the webinar here. 

I'd love to hear what you think and hear about any predictions you have for 2014. 

Show All Comments Sort:
Thomas McCombs
Century 21 HomeStar - Akron, OH

Aren't statistics fun? We can always find some to support whatever opinion we have.

I have to question any Goldman Sach's estimates given the vested interest they have in helping to create the results of their estimates.

That said, I do agree that we are -- generally speaking -- on the upswing in most parts of the country. But there are still pockets where things remain pretty stagnant.

Being a typical two handed economist, on the one hand I can predict with at least 50% confidence that things will continue to inprove, but on the other hand something unexpected might happen that would change the direction of the economy and to therefore negatively impact the housing situation. (I tried to get as many jargon words into this as possible )

You wrote a good article, thank you for stimulating some thought and analysis.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec 19, 2013 11:39 PM
Charlie Dresen
The Group, Inc - Steamboat Springs, CO
Steamboat Springs, CO e-Pro

 . . . still, cautious optimism. 

Dec 19, 2013 11:44 PM
Jed Kolko
Chief Economist at Trulia

Thanks for the warm Active Rain welcome everyone. And some really interesting thoughts from all of you. I'll be posting here more often with some of the various insights and data we've been seeing industry wide. Looking forward to having more of these conversations.

Dec 20, 2013 12:36 AM
Andre R. Aragon
Greater Tampa Real Estate Photographer - Tampa, FL
Real Estate Photographer

Hey Jed, Thanks. Im going to have a listen to webinar. Thanks for posting.

Dec 20, 2013 01:23 AM
Gene Riemenschneider
Home Point Real Estate - Brentwood, CA
Turning Houses into Homes

I think you are correct.  I do think things may pick up rapidly as the year moves on.

Dec 20, 2013 03:46 AM
Randy Shamburger
Movement Mortgage - Greenville, SC
FHA, VA, USDA and Conventional Mortgage Expert

Jed - what an excellent post.  Thanks for taking the time to put this together.

Have a Big day,

Randy

Dec 20, 2013 03:47 AM
Cat Zwicker, CRS
Desert Sky Real Estate, LLC - Redmond, OR
Down to Earth Service; Out of this World Results!

Excellent observations. Thank you for putting it together in a format easily understood and digestable by agents and consumers alike. 

Dec 20, 2013 04:04 AM
Ric Mills
Keller Williams Southern Az - Tucson, AZ
Integrity, Honesty, and Vast Real Estate Knowledge

Terrific Blog and so right on.  It will be another Challenging Year but we are getting more back to normal.  YEAH

Dec 20, 2013 08:29 AM
Dan Derito
Success! Real Estate - Brockton, MA

Thank you for your excellent input Jed.  I hope that you are correct and that 2014 brings continued improvement.

Dec 20, 2013 08:49 AM
David Demangos
Keller Williams Realty Carmel Valley / Del Mar - San Diego, CA
REALTOR

Wow, up to 74%!

Dec 20, 2013 10:02 AM
Lottie Kendall
Compass - San Francisco, CA
Helping make your real estate dreams a reality

Repeat buyers had a hard time in our area in 2012 and 2013 with the extreme lack of inventory. I'm hoping that will change in 2014.

Dec 20, 2013 11:39 PM
John Pusa
Glendale, CA

Jed - Thank you for sharing an excellent list of information about five housing predictions you need to know.

Dec 21, 2013 01:12 AM
Travis "the SOLD man" Parker; Broker/Owner
Travis Realty - Enterprise, AL
email: Travis@theSOLDman.me / cell: 334-494-7846

With some Military cutbacks, and that being the biggest group of buyers in this area, we expect a bit of a slowdown in 2014.

Dec 21, 2013 01:59 AM
Patricia Kennedy
RLAH@properties - Washington, DC
Home in the Capital

Jed, welcome to Active Rain and thank's for the great information.  Look forward to many more of your posts.

Dec 21, 2013 08:03 AM
Jan Green - Scottsdale, AZ
Value Added Service, 602-620-2699 - Scottsdale, AZ
HomeSmart Elite Group, REALTOR®, EcoBroker, GREEN

Great predictions.  I think these changes will be pretty much across the board.  Homeowners and buyers are taking a break right now, but they'll be back and we'll have a balanced market.

Dec 21, 2013 08:38 AM
Charles Stallions
Charles Stallions Real Estate Services - Pensacola, FL
850-476-4494 - Pensacola, Pace or Gulf Breeze, Fl.

I will catch the video as I don't see much news here as far as overall market. A birdie told me that there is a 50% chance the market will increase and that interest rates will stay the same within 5% either way LOL

Dec 22, 2013 03:42 AM
Andrew Payne Realtor® Richmond VA Homes For Sale~804-938-5257~
Piedmont Real Estate - Richmond, VA
Richmond, VA, Real Estate, SRES®, NAR Green

Jed,

Thanks for sharing this information.  It's good to be aware of our respective markets and move forward!

Dec 22, 2013 11:04 AM
Sharon Parisi
United Real Estate Dallas - Dallas, TX
Dallas Homes

Jed, thanks for sharing this information with readers.  Dallas experienced an extremely strong sellers' market in 2013. As a Realtor, I am hoping for a more balanced market in 2014.

Dec 22, 2013 03:42 PM
Lori Kellett
Kondaur Capital Corporation - Orange, CA
Loan Officer

Hi, I am from Southern California, I would be interested to know more about Southern California and the forcast for 2014. I am experienced as a mortgage professional we've all experienced the mortgage meltdown here in Southern California and most of us in the industry had gotten into short sales, modifications, harp 2 programs.  I've networked with Realtors in the industry and they said not enough inventory and most buyers are the "cash investors".  I've been reading about the market etc...stating young couples who make six figures, professional job, high fico's are able to buy homes here in Southern California..There is business here for the seasoned Mortgage Loan Originator for the die hards that never got out of the business and homeowners that are buying, its just that in this market, the average MLO thinks back in the "good old days" they were handed borrowers on a platter...and given deals without actually having to work and now they  need to prospect and find clients, network, use their expertise and experience, follow up and customer service. If they are patient, they will get deals. Its a differernt market now. 

Dec 23, 2013 05:50 AM
Barbara Gregus
CARES Consumer Advantage Real Estate Services - Sandia Park, NM
Sandia Park Paa-ko Homes
Thank you for sharing 5 Housing Market Predictions You Need to Know Jed, keep it up and enjoy blogging!
Feb 17, 2014 10:03 AM