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Mortgage Rate Update 1-7-14: Trends & Projections

By Jason E. Gordon

Mortgage and Lending with CMG Mortgage, San Diego, CA NMLS 259027

January 07, 2014 12:11 AM

It has been a fairly quiet morning thus far regarding market trading. The November Trade Deficity declined to $34.3 Billion (far below the consensus of $40.0 Billion...and the lowest level since October, 2009). Janet Yellen was confirmed by the Senate last night to be the next President of the Federal Reserve. The Dow is currently up 125 basis points. There will be no further economic data released today.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Profesionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired. To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Tuesday 1-7-2014 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Monday with an IMPROVEMENT to pricing. Monday's IMPROVEMENT netted a change of 9 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

Lowest Mortgage Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart summarizes todays market activity:

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

Lowest Mortgage Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

Lowest Mortgage Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry)

FNMA

Cpn 3.0 Chg 0.1719 Bid 95.39063

Cpn 3.5 Chg 0.1094 Bid 99.78125

Cpn 4.0 Chg 0.1094 Bid 103.35938

Treasury

UST 5 YR Chg 0.0469 Bid 99.12500 Yield 1.6840

UST 10 YR Chg 0.1250 Bid 98.32813 Yield 2.9470

UST 30 YR Chg 0.2500 Bid 97.60938 Yield 3.8860

Currency

Euro Bid 1.3630 Chg 0.0004

Pound Bid 1.6411 Chg 0.0007

Yen Bid 104.450 Chg 0.230

Light Crude

Last 93.66

Key Economic Data:

ICSC chain stories

WW: Actual -5.4%, Last 1.0%.

YY: Actual 1.7%, Last 3.0%.

International trade for Nov: Actual -34.25b, Consensus -40.0b. Last -40.6b, Revised -39.33b.

Redbook

MM: Actual -0.6%, Last -0.7%.

YY: Actual 4.1%, Last 4.5%.

7:00: IBD economic optimism for Jan: Last 43.1.

Advice:

Treasuries were little changed, with three-year yields about one basis point from the lowest in two weeks, before the U.S. sells $30 billion of the notes today in the first of three sales of coupon-bearing debt this week. The extra yield that investors demand to hold 10-year notes instead of three-year debt climbed to the highest since 2011 last month as the Fed pledged to keep its benchmark interest rate low even as it started reducing bond purchases. The U.S. will auction $21 billion in 10-year securities tomorrow and $13 billion of 30-year bonds the following day. Janet Yellen won U.S. Senate confirmation to replace Ben S. Bernanke as Federal Reserve chairman. Bernanke and Yellen have been out saying they will be keeping rates low for quite a long while and also data has been disappointing slightly and thats been weighing on yields, said Niels From, chief analyst at Nordea Bank AB in Copenhagen. Theres potential for the curve to steepen, he said, referring to expectations shorter maturities will outperform. The three-year yield was at 0.75 percent as of 6:55 a.m. New York time after dropping to 0.74 percent on Jan. 3, the lowest level since Dec. 23. The price of the 0.625 percent note maturing in December 2016 was 99 5/8. The benchmark 10-year yield was at 2.96 percent after climbing to 3.05 percent on Jan. 2, the highest since July 2011. The spread between three- and 10-year yields was 220 basis points, or 2.20 percentage points. It reached 230 basis points on Dec. 6, the widest since July 2011.

My position on MBS

Short term Neutral.

Long term Short.

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

The trade deficit narrowed more than expected. This will most likely cause a boost in the next GDP report, but for some reason, the market has actually rallied a bit on the news. It is worth noting that the decline in the trade deficit was based on some volitile and unsustainable factors, so the lift it does cause in GDP will be short lived.

Look for a test at the top of the range and then short of a weak employment report on Friday, a fall back to the bottom of the range.

Here is today's video link:

http://www.ratewatch.com/ratewatchnow.html

Trusted Industry Advisor

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) and Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.GordonMortgage.com or www.ApprovingSD.com or more information.

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