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Mortgage Rate Update 1-28-14: Trends & Projections

By Jason E. Gordon

Mortgage and Lending with CMG Mortgage, San Diego, CA NMLS 259027

January 28, 2014 07:13 AM

Despite a big shortfall, there was little reaction to today's Durable Orders data. The Dow is up 90 points. Consumer Confidence came in slightly above expectations. The net result has mortgage pricing +/- 0.125 to Friday's close.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Profesionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired. To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Tuesday 1-28-2014 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Monday with a WORSENING to pricing. Monday's WORSENING netted a change of 19 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

Lowest Mortgage Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart summarizes todays market activity:

Lowest Mortgage Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

Lowest Mortgage Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

Lowest Mortgage Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry)

FNMA

Cpn 3.0 Chg 0.1094 Bid 96.53125

Cpn 3.5 Chg 0.0625 Bid 100.84375

Cpn 4.0 Chg 0.0469 Bid 104.28125

Treasury

UST 5 YR Chg 0.0234 Bid 99.68750 Yield 1.5660

UST 10 YR Chg -0.0000 Bid 99.98438 Yield 2.7520

UST 30 YR Chg -0.0781 Bid 101.35938 Yield 3.6740

Currency

Euro Bid 1.3672 Chg -0.0001

Pound Bid 1.6599 Chg 0.0017

Yen Bid 102.720 Chg 0.170

Light Crude

Last 96.44

Key Economic Data:

Build permits for Dec: Actual 0.991m, Last 0.986m.

ICSC chain stories

WW: Actual 0.2%, Last -1.9%.

YY: Actual 2.2%, Last 0.9%.

Durable goods for Dec

Index: Actual -4.3%, Last 0.9%.

Ex-transport: Actual -1.6%, Consensus 0.5%, Last 1.2%, Revised 0.1%.

Ex-defense: Actual -3.7%, Last 3.5%, Revised 2.7%.

Nondefense ex-air: Actual -1.3%, Consensus 0.5%, Last 4.1%, revised 2.6%.

Redbook

MM: Actual -0.1%, Last -0.2%.

YY: Actual 3.2%, Last 3.1%.

CaseShiller for Nov

20 mm SA: Actual 0.9%, Consensus 0.8%, Last 1.0%, Revised 1.1%.

20 mm nsa: Actual 0.1%, Consensus 0.2%, Last 0.2%.

20 YY: Actual 13.7%, Consensus 13.7%, Last 13.6%.

7:00: Consumer confidence for Jan: Consensus 78.1, Last 78.1.

7:00: Rich Fed comp index for Jan: Last 13.

7:30: Texas serv sect outlook for Jan: Last 12.5.

7:30: Dallas Fed services reve for Jan: Last 16.0.

Advice:

Treasuries erased losses after a report showed durable goods orders unexpectedly declined in December by the most in five months, adding to concern the economy may be slowing. U.S. debt fell earlier on speculation the Federal Reserve will reduce monetary stimulus this week and as a recovery in emerging-market equities from a three-day slump damped demand for the safest assets. Two-year securities slipped before the U.S. begins sales of $111 billion of notes this week. Policy makers will reduce purchases of Treasury and mortgage debt for a second time, to $65 billion a month, after a meeting concluding tomorrow, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The durable goods data is a nightmare for the Fed, said Thomas di Galoma, head of U.S. rates sales at ED&F Man Capital

Markets in New York. All of a sudden, the datas getting extremely weak. My feeling is the Fed will taper, but you certainly have to question some of the week data. Benchmark 10-year yields fell one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 2.74 percent at 8:40 a.m. New York time, Bloomberg Bond Trader data show. The price of the 2.75 percent note due in November 2023 added 2/32, or 63 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 100 2/32. The yield rose earlier by as much as three basis points. The two-year yield was little changed at 0.36 percent. Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years dropped 4.3 percent after a 2.6 percent gain in November that was smaller than previously reported, a Commerce Department report showed in Washington. The median estimate of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 1.8 percent advance.

My position on MBS

Short term Neutral.

Long term Short.

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

Mixed news today. Durable orders was a big surprise, showing a 1.6% ex-transportation decline. Consumer confidence was just the opposite and was up. The bond market is focusing on that number, thus pressuring prices.

We again tested the top of the resistance AND the channel and bounced pretty hard off of that, which caused an immediate test of the bottom. We are there now and any weakness will be followed by a severe drop to the bottom of the range, which is shown on the chart.

http://www.ratewatch.com/ratewatchnow.html

Trusted Industry Advisor

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) and Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.GordonMortgage.com or www.ApprovingSD.com or more information.

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