At Stafford Real Estate, we have developed a model for predicting home prices that defies convention and works, for us, better than 80% of the time in predicting what a home will sell for. The model provides great guidance for both buyers and sellers.
The conventional wisdom uses a bedroom and bathroom count and amenities to arrive at price. Our methodology uses price per square foot bracketed by square footage of the home. Of course, knowledge of the immediate neighborhood is essential for selecting comparable homes.
To show just how varied data can be by area and by size of home, we have prepared two tables with 2012 and 2013 data.
Here are data for homes under 1500 square feet:
| AREA/ZIP CODE | Average $ /s.f. 2012 | Average $ /s.f 2013 | % increase |
| 94601 | 149 | 230 | 35.2% |
| 94602 | 315 | 427 | 26.2% |
| 94603 | 119 | 173 | 31.2% |
| 94605 | 161 | 231 | 30.3% |
| 94606 | 182 | 291 | 37.5% |
| 94607 | 152 | 238 | 36.1% |
| 94608 | 248 | 392 | 36.7% |
| 94609 | 357 | 475 | 24.8% |
| 94610 | 361 | 472 | 23.5% |
| 94611 | 383 | 506 | 24.3% |
| 94612 | 131 | 322 | 59.3% |
| 94618 | 514 | 607 | 15.3% |
| 94619 | 247 | 343 | 28.0% |
| 94621 | 102 | 153 | 33.3% |
| 94705 | 436 | 589 | 26.0% |
And now the numbers for homes 1500 sq ft to 3000 sq ft:
| AREA/ZIP CODE | Average $ /s.f. 2012 | Average $ /s.f 2013 | % increase |
| 94601 | 116 | 168 | 31.0% |
| 94602 | 323 | 371 | 12.9% |
| 94603 | 120 | 161 | 25.5% |
| 94605 | 187 | 244 | 23.4% |
| 94606 | 185 | 236 | 21.6% |
| 94607 | 133 | 188 | 29.3% |
| 94608 | 216 | 272 | 20.6% |
| 94609 | 271 | 377 | 28.1% |
| 94610 | 359 | 430 | 16.5% |
| 94611 | 329 | 398 | 17.3% |
| 94612 | 126 | 186 | 32.3% |
| 94618 | 454 | 490 | 7.3% |
| 94619 | 232 | 311 | 25.4% |
| 94621 | 91 | 122 | 25.4% |
| 94705 | 412 | 423 | 2.6% |
Once one absorbs the variability of prices per square foot by home size and by neighborhood, a whole new world of analysis (further details of which are proprietary) emerges.
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