More Economic Drivel

By
Industry Observer

In a Marketwatch article titled, U.S. home prices decline 0.1% in December, Ruth Mantell explains that there was a 0,8% increase in home prices for the month.  She apparently bases her headline on the fact that November prices rose 0.9%.  Once again, we see another example of just how useless some statistics can be in the hands of the wrong people. 

While the article does contain enough information for the average reader to understand that there is merely a slowdown in the increase in prices, not prices themselves, the headline suggests something else.  Did the rate of increase in the increase decrease? Well, yes it did, but that's not what the headline says, is it?  And how does the data affect potential home buyers?  Probably not much.

 

 

 

 

Posted by

 Mike Carlier  Lakeville, MN

 

612-916-3033

 

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Rainmaker
863,526
Les & Sarah Oswald
Realty One Group - Eastvale, CA
Broker, Realtor and Investor

Too much analysis might not be what is needed to help assure investors that the direction they are taking is the right one. The bigger picture might be more useful for sure!

Feb 24, 2014 11:05 PM #1
Rainmaker
3,978,939
William Feela
WHISPERING PINES REALTY - North Branch, MN
Realtor, Whispering Pines Realty 651-674-5999 No.

It is like putting stats in the hands of Politicians...the real meaning of them gets lsot.

Feb 25, 2014 01:23 AM #2
Ambassador
884,209
John Meussner
Mason-McDuffie Mortgage, Conventional Loans, Jumbo Loans, FHA, 203(k), USDA, VA, - Walnut Creek, CA
#MortgageMadeEasy Walnut Creek, CA 484-680-4852

EJ it's so hard to get to the point & the real figures.  I'm still scratching my head over the employment situation.

Feb 25, 2014 04:21 AM #3
Rainmaker
522,122
Mike Carlier
Lakeville, MN
More opinions than you want to hear about.

I'm beginning to think that John Stewart has the easiest job in the world -- making fun of the news.  All he has to do is selectively read portions of it out loud. 

Sarah & Lester, it would help if the intent of the analysis was not to be misleading.  Maybe I went to the wrong school, but I always thought that a decline was a negative trajectory.  Must be something to do with the new math.

Bill, there's so many things wrong with politics that we could never cover them all in a lifetime.  One of my favorites: You have two choices, a rotten apple and  a bruised up over-ripe apple, and you choose the over-ripe one.  Our politicians would conclude that you like over-ripe, bruised apples and call that a mandate for everything almost-rotten apples stand for.

John, you and I and about another three hundred million Americans are all scratching our heads.   

Feb 25, 2014 05:39 AM #4
Rainmaker
1,220,416
Gene Mundt, IL/WI Mortgage Originator - FHA/VA/Conv/Jumbo/Portfolio/Refi
NMLS #216987, IL Lic. 031.0006220, WI Licensed. APMC NMLS #175656 - New Lenox, IL
708.921.6331 - 40+ yrs experience

EJ:  So much spin can be placed on these reports and numbers.  Then the public sees a list of articles, one after another, providing diverse information to the extreme of being totally opposite of one another.  Is it any wonder why they mistrust our industry?  Or have grown quite numb to news, marketing, and the media hype?

Gene

Feb 25, 2014 07:09 AM #5
Rainmaker
522,122
Mike Carlier
Lakeville, MN
More opinions than you want to hear about.

Gene, I think yhat the public has mistrust for just about every industry, and that's probably the result of broadened media availability.  Add politicians deliberately distorting data and economists doing the same, and you get public confusion and mistrust.

Today's drivel from the same source as yesterday includes a report that median home prices fell 2.2%.  One can only assume without further information that the drop was from December prices.  The public takeaway is that homes are cheaper now than a month ago. That would be correct if the data refers to the same mix of real estate.  I'll speculate that the second home market in areas where it's cheaper to build, and also guessing that second homes are usually smaller and cheaper than primary residences, is traditionally stronger in January than in December.  Could that have affected median prices? Yup.

Feb 25, 2014 11:44 PM #6
Rainmaker
1,285,871
Jon Kolsky
Kolsky Realty & Management - Long Beach, CA
Licensed California Real Estate Broker

EJ~ drivel reporting is a mess for sure, and the doom and gloom reports are merely drivel for the masses....

Mar 17, 2014 02:34 AM #7
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Rainmaker
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Mike Carlier

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